苯胺类化合物在不同pH值下对大型蚤的急性毒性及QSAR研究

测定了13种苯胺类化合物在不同pH下（6．0，7．8，9．0）对大型蚤（Daphnia magna)的24h半数活动抑制浓度24h-1C50，应用三种理化参数logP,TSA和pKa，对毒性数据进行了定量构效关系（QSARs)研究，并在此基础上初步探讨了苯胺类化合物的毒性机制。     

基于24Model的矿工怠工行为 管理模式架构及策略研究

为减少矿工怠工行为,基于24Model研究矿工怠工行为的管理模式架构及策略。首先,基于冰山模型理论分析矿工怠工行为的影响因素;其次,基于24Model和行为修正理论提出集怠工行为识别、行为原因分析、行为管理策略选择和行为修正评估于一体的矿工怠工行为管理模式架构;最后,提出了针对性的管理策略。对于提高煤矿企业矿工的工作绩效具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

Understanding conservationists’ perspectives on the new‐conservation debate

A vibrant debate about the future direction of biodiversity conservation centers on the merits of the so‐called new conservation. Proponents of the new conservation advocate a series of positions on key conservation ideas, such as the importance of human‐dominated landscapes and conservation's engagement with capitalism. These have been fiercely contested in a debate dominated by a few high‐profile individuals, and so far there has been no empirical exploration of existing perspectives on these issues among a wider community of conservationists. We used Q methodology to examine empirically perspectives on the new conservation held by attendees at the 2015 International Congress for Conservation Biology (ICCB). Although we identified a consensus on several key issues, 3 distinct positions emerged: in favor of conservation to benefit people but opposed to links with capitalism and corporations, in favor of biocentric approaches but with less emphasis on wilderness protection than prominent opponents of new conservation, and in favor of the published new conservation perspective but with less emphasis on increasing human well‐being as a goal of conservation. Our results revealed differences between the debate on the new conservation in the literature and views held within a wider, but still limited, conservation community and demonstrated the existence of at least one viewpoint (in favor of conservation to benefit people but opposed to links with capitalism and corporations) that is almost absent from the published debate. We hope the fuller understanding we present of the variety of views that exist but have not yet been heard, will improve the quality and tone of debates on the subject.     

Discounting in the presence of scarce ecosystem services

The discount rate for cost-benefit analysis has to take account of future scarcity of ecosystem services in consumption and production. Previous literature focuses on the first aspect and shows the importance of the relative price effect, for given growth rates of consumption and ecosystem services. This paper focuses on intermediate ecosystem services in production and shows that for limited substitutability and a low growth rate of these ecosystem services, the growth rate of consumption, and thus the discount rate, declines towards a low value. Using a Ramsey growth model, the paper distinguishes three cases. If ecosystem services can be easily substituted, the discount rate converges to the usual value in the long term. Secondly, if ecosystem services can be easily substituted in production but not in consumption, the relative price effect is important. Finally, and most interestingly, if ecosystem services cannot be easily substituted in production, the discount rate declines towards a low value and the relative price effect is less important. Another part of the previous literature has shown that a declining discount rate is the result of introducing several forms of uncertainty, but this paper reaches that conclusion from an endogenous effect on the growth rate of the economy.     

储罐钢08MnNiVR和SPV490Q在石油沉积水中腐蚀性能对比

采用电化学试验、浸泡试验和慢应变速率拉伸试验研究储罐钢08MnNiVR和SPV490Q在石油沉积水中的腐蚀性能差异。电化学试验结果表明,08MnNiVR在石油沉积水中的自腐蚀电流比SPV490Q略大。浸泡试验结果表明,中短期试验时,08MnNiVR的腐蚀率略大;较长期试验时,SPV490Q的腐蚀率略大。慢应变速率拉伸试验结果表明,08MnNiVR和SPV490Q在石油沉积水中均具有高应力腐蚀抗力。     

基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统的风险分析方法

基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统,应用Monte-Carlo模拟技术,研究了岩体质量风险分析方法。该方法视Q分类系统中各单因素取值为随机变量,建立了各单因素取值概率模型;通过对所建模型的抽样计算,可获取所评价岩体实际Q值小于设计所采用Q值的概率;通过对比分析Q值累计曲线和岩体质量分布图,可得到任意Q值对应的风险概率,查清岩体中可能出现的质量等级以及每个质量等级所占百分比的情况。本文研究成果已在青岛胶州湾海底隧道工程中得到应用,并获得良好效果。     

细菌信息素研究进展

有关细胞信号的研究一直是生物学研究中的热点课题,尤其是动物细胞信号系统的研究已很深入,发现了许多信号分子和信号传导途径.但对微生物而言,长期以来的认识都是微生物,特别是细菌,一般只能被动地感受环境的变化,而没有群体的效应.其中唯一的特例是粘细菌(ｍｙｘｏｂａｃｔｅｒｉａ),在营养缺乏的条件下,通过释放ｃＡｍｐ等信号分子,促使营养细胞聚集,形成子实体和粘孢子[1].直至70年代,Ｈａｓｔｉｎｇ等通过对海洋发光细菌Ｖｉｂｒｉｏｆｉｓｃｈｅｒｉ和Ｖｉｂｒｉｏｈａｒｖｅｙｉ的发光机制的研究,发现发光细菌本身能产生一类小分子物…     

数据挖掘在预测组织事故防控效果中的应用*

为进一步探索数据挖据技术在组织事故预防工作中的融入性与适用性,基于24Model构建事故预控基础模型,通过预测准确率数值及接受者操作特性曲线（ROC曲线）对比分析随机森林（RF）、支持向量机(SVM)、决策树（DT）与神经网络（NN）4种方法对组织事故防控效果的预测性能。结果表明:针对事故率控制（Y1）、职业危害预防（Y2）、财产损失3类预测目标（Y3）,RF方法均能达到较高的准确率及稳定性,具有较优的预测性能。根据特征重要度（FI）排序,明确对组织事故水平影响最显著的因素为安全实践活动认知（SC5）及安全管理程序文件（SMS3）,FI值均大于0.150 0。研究结果可为有效预测组织事故防控效果提供方法依据,同时为企业安全工作的规划设计提供思路。     

Green accounting and sustainability of the Peruvian metal mining sector

This paper estimates the true economic income of Peru’s metal mining sector for the period 1992–2006, using a model of green economic income based on Hamilton (2000). The total depletion of natural capital caused by metal mining is calculated by estimating, on the one hand, the depreciation of mining resources (using the Hotelling rent approach) and, on the other, the environmental degradation provoked by metal mining activities. The results show that the total loss of natural capital represents between 31% and 51% of the metal mining GDP and between 2% and 4.9% of Peru’s GDP. On the other hand, correcting the usual GDP measure produced by the traditional National Account System (NAS) for the total loss of natural capital caused by mining activities shows that the GDP traditional measure overestimated by 51–64% the true economic income generated by Peruvian's metal mining sector during the period 1992–2006. The importance of the generation, taxation, and disposition of mining economic rents for Peru’s sustainable development in the future is also discussed.     

The evolution of the Canadian mining industry: The role of regulatory punctuation

In this study, we analyze the evolution of Canada's mining industry from 1929 to 2006, focussing on the determinants of the number of firms in the industry and why this number changed over that period. Most empirical studies of industry evolution have focused on manufacturing industries that share similar structural characteristics. Perhaps because of this, extant models of industry evolution tend to ignore industry-specific and national-specific factors that can cause atypical trajectories, that is, heterogeneous industry evolution. Initial inspection of the Canadian mining industry shows that it is atypical in that it exhibits “negative skew” over time in the number of firms rather than the typical “positive skew.” We review two dominant theoretical approaches to industry evolution: the density-dependence theory and variants of industrial organization economics. We also consider possible sources of industry evolution heterogeneity, focussing particularly on “regulatory punctuation”. Using Canadian mining data, we find that the traditional models do not fully explain the changes in population size in Canada's mining industry. As a result, we introduce a number of hybrid models. The results from these hybrid models suggest that Canadian-specific regulatory punctuations, particularly the introduction of significant new taxes, environmental legislation, and incentives have shaped the trajectory of mining firm participation.