我国可持续设计及其实践的探讨

可持续设计超越了传统设计和生态设计，要求平衡经济、环境、社会３方面的发展需要，在可持续设计的基本工具产品生命周期评价尚需进一步发展的同时，建立适当的设计准则是当前发展可持续设计的可行途径。     

基于SD和CLUE-S模型的区域土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量影响研究

土地利用/土地覆被变化改变土壤呼吸条件,进而对土壤有机碳储量变化产生影响,而土壤有机碳储量则是影响农业可持续发展和全球碳平衡领域的重要因素。以上海市崇明岛为例,运用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics Model)预测2020、2030年土地利用需求变化,结合CLUE-S模型(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small region extent Model)得出各种用地类型的空间分布,并引用碳密度法估算三种发展幕景下土地利用变化对土壤有机碳储量的影响。结果表明:2030年三种发展幕景土壤有机碳储量分别为:低速发展幕景为3 093.03×106kg,惯性发展幕景为3 079.47×106kg,高速发展幕景为3 059.81×106kg;研究期内土壤有机碳储量呈现缓慢下降趋势,但人类活动对其扰动较小;SD和CLUE-S耦合模型可以从时间和空间两方面对土壤有机碳储量进行模拟,具有可行性;建议通过加强城镇用地集约利用、农田保护、林地建设来减少人为活动对土壤有机碳储量的影响。     

突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径,提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力,降低衍生灾害发生概率,在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上,构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学（SD）模型,并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验,模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响,其中事件自身因素起效时间最早,相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久,相关企业执行层影响最直接。     

Using multivariate regression modeling for sampling and predicting chemical characteristics of mixed waste in old landfills

Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed.This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables.The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills.Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies.     

口服纳米银对大鼠的生物有效性及其体内分布的研究

由于独特的抗菌特性,纳米银(AgNP)在诸多领域得到广泛应用,但是其生物有效性、动物组织分布及排出尚不清楚。将聚乙烯吡咯烷酮包被的AgNP溶液按照10 mg kg^-1给雌性SD大鼠灌胃,采用ICP-MS检测SD大鼠组织、粪便及尿液中总银浓度。实验结果表明,AgNP通过小肠吸收后,可以通过血液循环快速分布在肝、肾、脾、肺、脑等靶器官。灌胃后1 h,大鼠各组织中总银浓度达到最大值(肝、肾、脾、肺、脑中银浓度分别为0.29 ± 0.13 mg kg^-1、0.23 ± 0.04 mg kg^-1、0.17 ± 0.05 mg kg^-1、0.11 ± 0.01 mg kg^-1、0.06 ±0.02 mg kg^-1),之后银浓度随时间降低直至和对照组无显著性差异。在灌胃途径下,AgNP对SD大鼠的有效性为8.5%,且73%的AgNP是通过粪便的途径排出体外。     

赤霉酸暴露对SD大鼠青春期发育的影响

赤霉酸是目前国内外使用极其广泛的一种植物生长调节剂,但是针对其发育毒性的数据依然较少。本文探讨了赤霉酸暴露对SD大鼠青春期发育的影响。参考国内外环境内分泌干扰物危害的评价方法,将144只初断乳SD大鼠按体重随机分为4组,分别为对照组和1、10、100 mg·kg-1bw剂量组,采用经口灌胃方式对雄鼠连续染毒28 d,雌鼠连续染毒21 d。暴露结束后检测大鼠的体重、食物利用率、雄鼠包皮分离时间/雌鼠阴道开口时间、血清生化指标、脏器系数及组织病理学的变化。研究结果表明,与对照组相比,仅10和100 mg·kg-1bw剂量组雄鼠的肌酐水平显著升高(P<0.01),100 mg·kg-1bw剂量组雌鼠谷丙转氨酶水平有显著升高(P<0.01)。而与对照组相比,所有剂量组均未观察到大鼠的体重、食物利用率、雄鼠包皮分离时间/雌鼠阴道开口时间、脏器系数等指标有显著性差异的改变(P>0.05),组织病理学结果亦显示大鼠重要器官无损害性改变。因此,在本试验给予的剂量范围内赤霉酸染毒不会对SD大鼠青春期发育产生显著影响。     

Development and application of LC–APCI–MS method for biomonitoring of animal and human exposure to imidacloprid

Imidacloprid (IMI) is a relatively new neuro-active neonicotinoid insecticide and nowadays one of the largest selling insecticides worldwide. In the present study a LC–APCI–MS based method was developed and validated for the quantification of imidacloprid and its main metabolite 6-chloronicotinic acid (6-CINA) in urine and hair specimens. The method was tested in biomonitoring of intentionally exposed animals and subsequently applied for biomonitoring of Cretan urban and rural population.     

煤矿安全生产中人的行为影响因子系统动力学(SD)仿真分析

在构建影响人的安全行为因素因果关系的基础上,运用系统动力学(SD)理论和方法,对影响人的安全行为关键因素进行动态预测,并通过仿真计算、对比分析安全投入增加对系统安全水平的影响。应用该方法建立的煤矿生产中人的安全行为指标水平模型,以求证安全投入与人的安全行为水平的相关性,为煤矿安全管理决策提供一种新的思路,亦有助于政府和煤矿企业科学地明确安全投入方向,降低人因事故率,提高煤矿生产的安全水平。     

市级国土空间规划核心指标纵向传导研究——以湖南省常德市为例

核心指标纵向层级传导作为市级国土空间规划的关键内容,对市域国土空间格局优化及规划统筹具有重要意义。针对当前指标传导研究不充分、不精细等问题,遵循“核心传导指标选择→指标传导技术逻辑构建→情景模拟预测”的研究思路,以常德市为例研究其2035年国土空间规划“市→县（区）”的核心指标传导。结果表明：（1）基于“指标全域总量预测—指标空间布局模拟—指标分区分类传导”的传导技术逻辑,通过SD与GeoSOS-FLUS模型的耦合集成利用,可有效实现市级国土空间规划核心指标“自上而下”与“自下而上”相结合的科学传导。（2）构建“人—地—业”协调的常德市国土空间利用SD模型,预测获得2035年市域核心指标总量,相应国土利用综合效益达12994.25亿元,相比2018年提升207.75%。（3）从指标传导结果来看,2035年常德市各县（市、区）社会经济类指标除常住人口规模指标外均保持增长趋势,边界类指标实现“只增不减”,用地类指标变化各异,但总体契合常德市主体功能区建设方向,核心指标传导结果符合实际。     

Macrophage activity and histopathology of the lymphohematopoietic organs in male Wistar rats orally exposed to single or mixed pesticides

The noxious effects of low or effective dose exposure to single or mixed pesticides on macrophage activity and the lymphohematopoietic organs were investigated. Male Wistar rats were orally exposed to dichlorvos, dicofol, endosulfan, dieldrin and permethrin, either as single or combined mixtures during a 28-day study containing eight groups: one group received a semipurified diet (non-treated); two groups received a semipurified diet containing low dose mixture (dieldrin 0.025 mg/kg, endosulfan, 0.6 mg/kg, dicofol 0.22 mg/kg, dichlorvos 0.23 mg/kg, permethrin 5 mg/kg) or an effective dose mixture (dichlorvos 2.3 mg/kg, dicofol 2.5 mg/kg, endosulfan 2.9 mg/kg, dieldrin 0.05 mg/kg and permethrin 25.0 mg/kg), respectively; the other five groups received a semipurified diet containing each single pesticide in effective doses. At sacrifice, the thymus, spleen, mesenteric lymph nodes, Payer's patches and bone marrow were removed for histological analysis. Peritoneal macrophages were obtained to determine the phagocytosis and spreading indexes and tumoral necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), nitric oxide (NO) and H₂O₂ production. Exposure to pesticide mixtures did not alter the percentage of macrophage phagocytosis and spreading, TNF-α production or the NO and H₂O₂ release when compared to the non-treated group. Neither was there any apparent evidence that a pesticide mixture at low or effective doses altered the histological structure of the lymphohematopoietic organs. The findings indicate that short-term treatment with pesticide mixtures did not induce an apparent immunotoxic effect in male Wistar rats.