Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.     

Scientist and policy-maker response types and times in suburban watersheds

Differences between scientist and policy-maker response types and times, or the “how” and “when” of action, constrain effective water resource management in suburbanizing watersheds. Policy-makers are often rushed to find a single policy that can be applied across an entire, homogeneous, geopolitical region, whereas scientists undertake multiyear research projects to appreciate the complex interactions occurring within heterogeneous catchments. As a result, watershed management is often practiced with science and policy out of synch. Meanwhile, development pressures in suburban watersheds create changes in the social and physical fabric and pose a moving target for science and policy. Recent and anticipated advances in the scientific understanding of urbanized catchment hydrology and pollutant transport suggest that management should become increasingly sensitive to spatial heterogeneities in watershed features, such as soil types, terrain slopes, and seasonal watertable profiles. Toward this end, policy-makers should encourage funding scientific research that characterizes the impacts of these watershed heterogeneities within a geopolitical zoning and development framework.     

Aphid population response to agricultural landscape change: A spatially explicit,individual-based model

A spatially explicit individual-based simulation model has been developed to represent aphid population dynamics in agricultural landscapes. The application of the model to Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) population dynamics is detailed, including an outline of the construction of the model, its parameterisation and validation. Over time, the aphids interact with the landscape and with one another. The landscape is modified by varying a simple pesticide regime, and the multi-scale spatial and temporal implications for a population of aphids is analysed. The results show that a spatial modelling approach that considers the effects on the individual of landscape properties and factors such as wind speed and wind direction provides novel insight into aphid population dynamics both spatially and temporally. This forms the basis for the development of further simulation models that can be used to analyse how changes in landscape structure impact upon important species distributions and population dynamics.     

湖北省随县农村居民点整治现实潜力测算及整治策略——基于农户意愿的调查分析

农村居民点整治是土地整治规划的核心问题。研究采用实地调查法和多因素综合评价法,在统筹国家政策、农户意愿和建立自然-经济-社会-生态-规划综合修正指标体系的基础上,科学测算了随县各乡镇农村居民点整治现实潜力,并提出适宜整治策略。研究结果:①随县18个乡镇综合修正系数介于5.15%~9.84%之间,表明理论潜力转变为现实潜力的可能性具有较大地域差异;②2011-2020年随县农村居民点整治现实潜力为2 035.23 hm²,占理论潜力的17.80%,占现状农村居民点用地面积的10.01%;③可优先在潜力大的乡镇建立整治示范区,创新土地整治模式,有序推进农村居民点整治。该研究测算方法及整治策略具有一定的科学性和实用性,可为新一轮农村居民点整治提供更为有效的依据和参考。     

Spatial effects and strategic behavior in a multiregional transboundary pollution dynamic game

We analyze a transboundary pollution differential game where pollution control is spatially distributed among a number of agents with predetermined spatial relationships. The analysis emphasizes, first, the effects of the different geographical relationships among decision makers; and second, the strategic behaviour of the agents. The dynamic game considers a pollution stock (the state variable) distributed among one large region divided in subregions which control their own emissions of pollutants. The emissions are also represented as distributed variables. The dynamics of the pollution stock is defined by a parabolic partial differential equation. We numerically characterize the feedback Nash equilibrium of a discrete-space model that still captures the spatial interactions among agents. We evaluate the impact of the strategic and spatially dynamic behaviour of the agents on the design of equilibrium environmental policies.     

Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.     

A Comparison of Sampling Designs for Monitoring Recreational Trail Impacts in Rocky Mountain National Park

The dual goals of the Organic Act of 1916 and Wilderness Act of 1964 are to protect natural resources and provide quality visitor experiences. Park managers need metrics of trail conditions to protect park resources and quality of visitor experiences. A few methods of sampling design for trails have been developed. Here, we describe a relatively new method, spatially balanced sampling, and compare it to systematic sampling. We evaluated the efficiency of sampling designs to measure recreation-related impacts in Rocky Mountain National Park. This study addressed two objectives: first, it compared estimates of trail conditions from data collected from systematic versus spatially balanced sampling data; second, it examined the relationship between sampling precision and sampling efficiency. No statistically significant differences in trail condition were found between the 100-m interval and the spatially balanced datasets. The spatially balanced probability-based dataset was found to be a good estimate of trail conditions when analyses were conducted with fewer sample points. Moreover, spatially balanced probability-based sampling is flexible and allows additional sample points to be added to a sample.     

浅谈写实绘画的写意性

由于照相术的发明,写实性绘画陷入窘途,画家在绘画中不断地尝试在写实性绘画中融入写意性。写意性可以分为4个方面来融入,即造型的写意性、感情的写意性、绘画语言的写意性、形式结构的写意性。     

Scaling-up spatially-explicit ecological models using graphics processors

How the properties of ecosystems relate to spatial scale is a prominent topic in current ecosystem research. Despite this, spatially explicit models typically include only a limited range of spatial scales, mostly because of computing limitations. Here, we describe the use of graphics processors to efficiently solve spatially explicit ecological models at large spatial scale using the CUDA language extension. We explain this technique by implementing three classical models of spatial self-organization in ecology: a spiral-wave forming predator-prey model, a model of pattern formation in arid vegetation, and a model of disturbance in mussel beds on rocky shores. Using these models, we show that the solutions of models on large spatial grids can be obtained on graphics processors with up to two orders of magnitude reduction in simulation time relative to normal pc processors. This allows for efficient simulation of very large spatial grids, which is crucial for, for instance, the study of the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the formation of self-organized spatial patterns, thereby facilitating the comparison between theoretical results and empirical data. Finally, we show that large-scale spatial simulations are preferable over repetitions at smaller spatial scales in identifying the presence of scaling relations in spatially self-organized ecosystems. Hence, the study of scaling laws in ecology may benefit significantly from implementation of ecological models on graphics processors.     

Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival

While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level.The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.