一种基于Stella和R语言的湿地氮素动力学模型

通过Stella软件的可视化建模环境,快速开发构建了一种适用于表流型人工湿地的氮素循环动力学模型,并将模型翻译成R语言,可实现编程计算、数据分析及空间分析等多种算法和功能与动力学模型的集成,能大大提高模型的分析和预测能力,加强模型的实用性和应用能力.以大沙河人工湿地氨氮污染负荷最大削减能力为例,本文基于此模型,集成R语言强大的编程和计算能力,建立了进水水质与水量的调度函数关系,并确定了人工湿地最优进水水量、水质和污染负荷最大削减能力.     

Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models

Interest in the response of moose to climate change has increased because of the potential role they play in the conservation of woodland caribou, and threatened loss to recreational and economic opportunities. The objective of this study is to develop a plausible, parsimonious, systems-level model of moose population dynamics that will be useful in exploring the response of moose populations to climate projections. The study begins with a statistical model of moose carrying capacity, which is then integrated into a systems-level model that predicts moose density based on explicit causal factors. Scenario analysis was conducted using a variety of assumptions concerning biotic and abiotic interactions, and under the A2 climate scenario all model scenarios predict a decline of moose density at the southern limits of the Ontario distribution and an increase at the northern extents. Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. Given the sensitivity of the model to density-dependent factors, the indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than the direct effect of increased death rate. Results indicate that conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations.     

三种环境动力学模型建模方式的比较

在农药和化学品的风险评估工作中,环境动力学模型正得到越来越多的应用。采用Stella软件、Matlab M文件和Matlab Simulink 组件3种建模方式分别构建了微宇宙、湖泊和海湾系统的多介质环境动力学模型,并对3种方式的建模难度、计算耗时及模型直观性进行了比较。研究结果表明：Stella模型最直观,但提供的计算方法有限,更适用于微分方程数量不多且计算周期短的模型;M文件模型建模速度最快,但在直观性和计算速度上没有优势,不建议在环境动力学模型中使用;Simulink模型兼具直观性和计算速度快的优点,无论微分方程数量多少,在需要进行长周期计算的模型中都最具优势。     

Modelling the effects of extreme events on the dynamics of the amphipod Corophium orientale

The brackish water amphipod Corophium orientale is the dominant macroinvertebrate species in the upper Mira estuary, a small mesotidal system located in the southwest coast of Portugal. As climate changes will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts, these will have a negative effect on benthic estuarine invertebrates, namely C. orientale. In order to understand the effects of these events on C. orientale, a dynamic model, based on published information and calibrated with field data, was developed and different scenarios were tested.For model construction, the annual development of three cohorts of C. orientale, their growth rates, and the establishment of the timing of each cohort rise and extinction are introduced. This structure can be repeated indefinitely, for years, and few parameters are required. The model simulations highlight the need for refuge areas that enable a fast recovery of the amphipod population after an extreme event and the recolozination of the affected areas.