Complex and nonlinear climate-driven changes in freshwater insect communities over 42 years

The ongoing biodiversity crisis becomes evident in the widely observed decline in abundance and diversity of species, profound changes in community structure, and shifts in species’ phenology. Insects are among the most affected groups, with documented decreases in abundance up to 76% in the last 25–30 years in some terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the underlying drivers is a major obstacle as most ecosystems are affected by multiple stressors simultaneously and in situ measurements of environmental variables are often missing. In our study, we investigated a headwater stream belonging to the most common stream type in Germany located in a nature reserve with no major anthropogenic impacts except climate change. We used the most comprehensive quantitative long-term data set on aquatic insects available, which includes weekly measurements of species-level insect abundance, daily water temperature and stream discharge as well as measurements of additional physicochemical variables for a 42-year period (1969–2010). Overall, water temperature increased by 1.88 °C and discharge patterns changed significantly. These changes were accompanied by an 81.6% decline in insect abundance, but an increase in richness (+8.5%), Shannon diversity (+22.7%), evenness (+22.4%), and interannual turnover (+34%). Moreover, the community's trophic structure and phenology changed: the duration of emergence increased by 15.2 days, whereas the peak of emergence moved 13.4 days earlier. Additionally, we observed short-term fluctuations (<5 years) in almost all metrics as well as complex and nonlinear responses of the community toward climate change that would have been missed by simply using snapshot data or shorter time series. Our results indicate that climate change has already altered biotic communities severely even in protected areas, where no other interacting stressors (pollution, habitat fragmentation, etc.) are present. This is a striking example of the scientific value of comprehensive long-term data in capturing the complex responses of communities toward climate change.     

Quantitative Determination of Rarity of Freshwater Fishes and Implications for Imperiled‐Species Designations

Abstract: Conserving rare species and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning depends on sound information on the nature of rarity. Rarity is multidimensional and has a variety of definitions, which presents the need for a quantitative classification scheme with which to categorize species as rare or common. We constructed such a classification for North American freshwater fishes to better describe rarity in fishes and provide researchers and managers with a tool to streamline conservation efforts. We used data on range extents, habitat specificities, and local population sizes of North American freshwater fishes and a variety of quantitative methods and statistical decision criteria, including quantile regression and a cost‐function algorithm to determine thresholds for categorizing a species as rare or common. Species fell into eight groups that conform to an established framework for rarity. Fishes listed by the American Fisheries Society (AFS) as endangered, threatened, or vulnerable were most often rare because their local population sizes were low, ranges were small, and they had specific habitat needs, in that order, whereas unlisted species were most often considered common on the basis of these three factors. Species with large ranges generally had few specific habitat needs, whereas those with small ranges tended to have narrow habitat specificities. We identified 30 species not designated as imperiled by AFS that were rare along all dimensions of rarity and may warrant further study or protection, and we found three designated species that were common along all dimensions and may require a review of their imperilment status. Our approach could be applied to other taxa to aid conservation decisions and serve as a useful tool for future revisions of listings of fish species.     

Use of Community‐Composition Data to Predict the Fecundity and Abundance of Species

Abstract: Species distribution models are critical tools for the prediction of invasive species spread and conservation of biodiversity. The majority of species distribution models have been built with environmental data. Community ecology theory suggests that species co‐occurrence data could also be used to predict current and potential distributions of species. Species assemblages are the products of biotic and environmental constraints on the distribution of individual species and as a result may contain valuable information for niche modeling. We compared the predictive ability of distribution models of annual grassland plants derived from either environmental or community‐composition data. Composition‐based models were built with the presence or absence of species at a site as predictors of site quality, whereas environment‐based models were built with soil chemistry, moisture content, above‐ground biomass, and solar radiation as predictors. The reproductive output of experimentally seeded individuals of 4 species and the abundance of 100 species were used to evaluate the resulting models. Community‐composition data were the best predictors of both the site‐specific reproductive output of sown individuals and the site‐specific abundance of existing populations. Successful community‐based models were robust to omission of data on the occurrence of rare species, which suggests that even very basic survey data on the occurrence of common species may be adequate for generating such models. Our results highlight the need for increased public availability of ecological survey data to facilitate community‐based modeling at scales relevant to conservation.     

Chilean Blue Whales as a Case Study to Illustrate Methods to Estimate Abundance and Evaluate Conservation Status of Rare Species

Abstract: Often abundance of rare species cannot be estimated with conventional design‐based methods, so we illustrate with a population of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) a spatial model‐based method to estimate abundance. We analyzed data from line‐transect surveys of blue whales off the coast of Chile, where the population was hunted to low levels. Field protocols allowed deviation from planned track lines to collect identification photographs and tissue samples for genetic analyses, which resulted in an ad hoc sampling design with increased effort in areas of higher densities. Thus, we used spatial modeling methods to estimate abundance. Spatial models are increasingly being used to analyze data from surveys of marine, aquatic, and terrestrial species, but estimation of uncertainty from such models is often problematic. We developed a new, broadly applicable variance estimator that showed there were likely 303 whales (95% CI 176–625) in the study area. The survey did not span the whales' entire range, so this is a minimum estimate. We estimated current minimum abundance relative to pre‐exploitation abundance (i.e., status) with a population dynamics model that incorporated our minimum abundance estimate, likely population growth rates from a meta‐analysis of rates of increase in large baleen whales, and two alternative assumptions about historic catches. From this model, we estimated that the population was at a minimum of 9.5% (95% CI 4.9–18.0%) of pre‐exploitation levels in 1998 under one catch assumption and 7.2% (CI 3.7–13.7%) of pre‐exploitation levels under the other. Thus, although Chilean blue whales are probably still at a small fraction of pre‐exploitation abundance, even these minimum abundance estimates demonstrate that their status is better than that of Antarctic blue whales, which are still <1% of pre‐exploitation population size. We anticipate our methods will be broadly applicable in aquatic and terrestrial surveys for rarely encountered species, especially when the surveys are intended to maximize encounter rates and estimate abundance.     

Dynamics of a low‐density tiger population in Southeast Asia in the context of improved law enforcement

Recovering small populations of threatened species is an important global conservation strategy. Monitoring the anticipated recovery, however, often relies on uncertain abundance indices rather than on rigorous demographic estimates. To counter the severe threat from poaching of wild tigers (Panthera tigris), the Government of Thailand established an intensive patrolling system in 2005 to protect and recover its largest source population in Huai Kha Khaeng Wildlife Sanctuary. Concurrently, we assessed the dynamics of this tiger population over the next 8 years with rigorous photographic capture‐recapture methods. From 2006 to 2012, we sampled across 624–1026 km² with 137–200 camera traps. Cameras deployed for 21,359 trap days yielded photographic records of 90 distinct individuals. We used closed model Bayesian spatial capture‐recapture methods to estimate tiger abundances annually. Abundance estimates were integrated with likelihood‐based open model analyses to estimate rates of annual and overall rates of survival, recruitment, and changes in abundance. Estimates of demographic parameters fluctuated widely: annual density ranged from 1.25 to 2.01 tigers/100 km², abundance from 35 to 58 tigers, survival from 79.6% to 95.5%, and annual recruitment from 0 to 25 tigers. The number of distinct individuals photographed demonstrates the value of photographic capture–recapture methods for assessments of population dynamics in rare and elusive species that are identifiable from natural markings. Possibly because of poaching pressure, overall tiger densities at Huai Kha Khaeng were 82–90% lower than in ecologically comparable sites in India. However, intensified patrolling after 2006 appeared to reduce poaching and was correlated with marginal improvement in tiger survival and recruitment. Our results suggest that population recovery of low‐density tiger populations may be slower than anticipated by current global strategies aimed at doubling the number of wild tigers in a decade.     

Changes in Avian and Plant Communities of Aspen Woodlands over 12 Years after Livestock Removal in the Northwestern Great Basin

Abstract: Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500‐ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow‐pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5‐ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot's 150‐m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow‐pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots ( stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium‐diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow‐pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow‐pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow‐pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic‐level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.     

Determinants of population persistence and abundance of terrestrial and arboreal vertebrates stranded in tropical forest land-bridge islands

Megadams are among the key modern drivers of habitat and biodiversity loss in emerging economies. The Balbina Hydroelectric Dam of Central Brazilian Amazonia inundated 312,900 ha of primary forests and created approximately 3500 variable-sized islands that still harbor vertebrate populations after nearly 3 decades after isolation. We estimated the species richness, abundance, biomass, composition, and group size of medium- to large-bodied forest vertebrates in response to patch, landscape, and habitat-quality metrics across 37 islands and 3 continuous forest sites throughout the Balbina archipelago. We conducted 1168 km of diurnal censuses and had 12,420 camera-trapping days along 81 transects with 207 camera stations. We determined the number of individuals (or groups) detected per 10 km walked and the number of independent photographs per 10 camera-trapping days, respectively, for each species. We recorded 34 species, and patch area was the most significant predictor of vertebrate population relative abundance and aggregate biomass. The maximum group size of several group-living species was consistently larger on large islands and in continuous patches than on small islands. Most vertebrate populations were extirpated after inundation. Remaining populations are unlikely to survive further ecological disruptions. If all vertebrate species were once widely distributed before inundation, we estimated that approximately 75% of all individual vertebrates were lost from all 3546 islands and 7.4% of the animals in all persisting insular populations are highly likely to be extirpated. Our results demonstrate that population abundance estimates should be factored into predictions of community disassembly on small islands to robustly predict biodiversity outcomes. Given the rapidly escalating hydropower infrastructure projects in developing counties, we suggest that faunal abundance and biomass estimates be considered in environmental impact assessments and large strictly protected reserves be established to minimize detrimental effects of dams on biodiversity. Conserving large tracts of continuous forests represents the most critical conservation measure to ensure that animal populations can persist at natural densities in Amazonian forests.     

Local and Landscape Correlates of Primate Distribution and Persistence in the Remnant Lowland Rainforests of the Upper Brahmaputra Valley,Northeastern India

Habitat fragmentation affects species distribution and abundance, and drives extinctions. Escalated tropical deforestation and fragmentation have confined many species populations to habitat remnants. How worthwhile is it to invest scarce resources in conserving habitat remnants within densely settled production landscapes? Are these fragments fated to lose species anyway? If not, do other ecological, anthropogenic, and species‐related factors mitigate the effect of fragmentation and offer conservation opportunities? We evaluated, using generalized linear models in an information‐theoretic framework, the effect of local‐ and landscape‐scale factors on the richness, abundance, distribution, and local extinction of 6 primate species in 42 lowland tropical rainforest fragments of the Upper Brahmaputra Valley, northeastern India. On average, the forest fragments lost at least one species in the last 30 years but retained half their original species complement. Species richness declined as proportion of habitat lost increased but was not significantly affected by fragment size and isolation. The occurrence of western hoolock gibbon (Hoolock hoolock) and capped langur (Trachypithecus pileatus) in fragments was inversely related to their isolation and loss of habitat, respectively. Fragment area determined stump‐tailed (Macaca arctoides) and northern pig‐tailed macaque occurrence (Macaca leonina). Assamese macaque (Macaca assamensis) distribution was affected negatively by illegal tree felling, and rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) abundance increased as habitat heterogeneity increased. Primate extinction in a fragment was primarily governed by the extent of divergence in its food tree species richness from that in contiguous forests. We suggest the conservation value of these fragments is high because collectively they retained the entire original species pool and individually retained half of it, even a century after fragmentation. Given the extensive habitat and species loss, however, these fragments urgently require protection and active ecological restoration to sustain this rich primate assemblage. Correlaciones Locales y de Paisaje de la Distribución y Persistencia de Primates en los Bosques Lluviosos Remanentes en el Valle del Alto Brahmaputra, Noreste de India     

Site-selection bias and apparent population declines in long-term studies

Detecting population declines is a critical task for conservation biology. Logistical difficulties and the spatiotemporal variability of populations make estimation of population declines difficult. For statistical reasons, estimates of population decline may be biased when study sites are chosen based on abundance of the focal species. In this situation, apparent population declines are likely to be detected even if there is no decline. This site-selection bias is mentioned in the literature but is not well known. We used simulations and real population data to examine the effects of site-selection biases on inferences about population trends. We used a left-censoring method to detect population-size patterns consistent with site-selection bias. The site-selection bias is an important consideration for conservation biologists, and we offer suggestions for minimizing or mitigating it in study design and analysis. Article impact statement: Estimates of population declines are biased if studies begin in large populations, and time-series data show a signature of such an effect.     

Distribution of a Community of Mammals in Relation to Roads and Other Human Disturbances in Gabon,Central Africa

We present the first community‐level study of the associations of both roads and other human disturbances with the distribution of mammals in Gabon (central Africa). Our study site was in an oil concession within a littoral mosaic landscape. We conducted surveys along 199 line transects and installed camera traps on 99 of these transects to document mammal presence and abundance. We used generalized linear mixed‐effect models to document associations between variables related to the ecosystem (land cover, topography, and hydrology), roads (coating, width of rights of way, condition, type of vehicle used on the road, traffic level, affiliation of users, and general type of road), and other human disturbances (urbanization, agriculture, hunting, logging, gathering, and industrial activities) and the abundance or presence of 17 species or groups of mammals including elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), buffalo (Syncerus caffer), sitatunga (Tragelaphus spekei), red river hog (Potamochoerus porcus), smaller ungulates, gorilla (Gorilla gorilla), chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), side‐striped jackal (Canis adustus), carnivores, monkeys, and large rodents. Some types of roads and other human disturbances were negatively associated with the abundance or presence of elephants, buffalos, gorillas, sitatungas, some monkeys, and duikers. The pattern of associations of mammals with roads and other human disturbances was diverse and included positive associations with road presence (red river hog, some monkeys, and duikers), agriculture (sitatunga, small carnivores, and large rodents) and industrial activities (sitatunga, red river hog, red duikers, and side‐striped jackal). Our results suggest that the community of mammals we studied was mostly affected by hunting, agriculture, and urbanization, which are facilitated by road presence. We recommend increased regulation of agriculture, hunting, and road building in the area. Distribución de una Comunidad de Mamíferos en Relación a Carreteras y Otras Perturbaciones Humanas en Gabón, Africa Central