欧亚大陆东南缘大陆地壳基底研究与展望

本文从不同方面和断代论述了中国东南地区的基底杂岩时代、性质、构造环境、边界变质条件、地球物理场及其反映的构造格局、断裂体系、中生代火山活动的基底构造及类型分区。在此基础上提出了东南地区的构造划分及构造演化阶段和格局。并提出了不同类型的地体及其分类、大陆裂解、增生的新概念。     

振动频率与龄期对河道淤泥气泡混合轻质土动力特性影响及机理

利用室内动三轴实验研究了振动频率与龄期对河道淤泥气泡混合轻质土（FMLSS）动力特性的影响。结果表明,振动频率和龄期对FMLSS的动力特性有明显影响。振动频率越小,轴向动应变和阻尼比越大,动模量越小。随着养护龄期的增长,动模量增大而阻尼比减小。动模量曲线在振动频率大、养护龄期长和水泥含量高时更加陡峭。当动应变较小时,不同龄期的FMLSS阻尼比很接近,随着动应变不断发展,阻尼比差异增大。FMLSS的动模量曲线都呈平缓衰减型,阻尼比在0.01~0.03之间,体现出FMLSS是良好的弹性材料。最后,探讨了振动频率和龄期对FMLSS动力特性的影响机理。     

Fluctuations of Population Size and Structure in the Northern Mole Vole: Preliminary Analysis

Long-term stationary studies on the ecology of the northern mole vole (Ellobius talpinus Pall.), performed by the mark–recapture method from 1985 to 1997, have provided original data on population dynamics and structure. The analysis shows that, to reveal cyclic fluctuations of population size in this species, the period of three years should be taken as a unit of time for estimating the duration of one phase. The 12-year population cycle in E. talpinus has four distinct phases: an increase, a peak, a decline, and a minimum. At each phase, the population is characterized by certain features of family structure, age composition, birth and death rates, and the composition of migrants.     

Spatial identification by satellite imagery of the crop–fallow rotation cycle in northern Laos

In the mountainous regions of northern Laos, shifting cultivation, or slash-and-burn agriculture, is widely practiced. However, the crop–fallow rotation cycle is becoming shorter owing to forest conservation policies and population pressure, causing loss of productivity that deleteriously affects farmers’ livelihoods in the region. To investigate regional land use conditions, we have developed a method of identifying the crop–fallow rotation cycle from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) data. We assessed the impact of the identified cycle on plant production measured by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The study site was an area in Luang Prabang Province. Using eight TM and ETM+ images acquired annually from 1995 to 2003, except for 1998, when cloud-free data were not collected, we classified land use in each year as crop or fallow by the presence of vegetation in the late dry season. Conformity with fallow age determined by field investigation was 69.1%. The cultivation frequency from 1995 to 2002 showed that 77,000 ha (17.3% of the study site) had not been used for cropping during the period, but 41,000 ha (9.2%) had been used every year. Of the study site, 129,000 ha (29.1%) was cultivated one or two times, 83,000 ha (18.7%) was three or four times, and 54,000 ha (12.2%) was five or six times. The NDVI of crops in November did not provide sufficient evidence to prove the assumption that a longer fallow period would result in better crop yields. Instead, the regeneration of fallow vegetation was evidenced by the higher NDVI values after longer fallow. More than 8 years would be needed to reach the same NDVI as forest. From the produced maps indicating fallow age and cultivation frequency, we found that areas with high potential for regeneration decreased as cultivation frequency increased. Areas near rivers were intensively used, and fallow length was accordingly short. Low-potential areas were found in the western basin of the Mekong River. This spatial information can be used to detect areas where biomass productivity is at high risk of deteriorating. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

环境健康价值评估中的年龄效应研究

在环境健康价值评估研究中,统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系是理论和实证研究焦点之一,也是重要的学术问题。长久以来,环境政策效益评估中是否应该赋予老年人较低的统计寿命价值一直存在广泛争议,且尚未得到一致性结论。通过设计选择实验,对北京市空气质量改善的健康效益进行了抽样调查,并采用MNL模型对北京市约500个居民的调查数据进行回归分析,估算了不同年龄人群对健康风险减少的支付意愿,针对中国人群中统计寿命价值和年龄之间的关系进行实证探讨。结果表明:一方面,在总体样本中设置年龄虚拟变量,回归结果表明年龄变量系数的符号均显著为负,即年龄因素对减少空气污染带来的死亡风险降低的支付意愿具有显著的影响,年龄越大支付意愿相对越小;另一方面,不同年龄人群分组样本结果显示,统计寿命价值与年龄之间呈现"倒U型"关系,统计寿命价值在中国存在"老年折扣"现象。研究结果可为我国环境政策的健康效益分析中如何考虑年龄的影响提供重要依据。     

大连市居民头发典型重金属富集特征研究

测定了大连市居民102份头发样品中Pb、Cd、Hg、As等重金属含量,评估了其暴露风险,并对头发中重金属的含量与年龄、性别的关系进行了分析.结果表明,大连市居民头发中Pb、Cd、Hg、As含量均低于中国居民头发中重金属的建议正常值上限,4种重金属暴露风险较低.男性头发中Cd、Pb和As的平均含量明显高于女性(p0.05),其中As平均含量差异达到极显著水平(p0.01).PCA分析显示样本分布集中在第一排序轴和第二排序轴中间,表明性别并不是影响头发中重金属含量的主要因素.19～35岁年龄组居民头发中Cd和Pb含量最高,且均与56～75岁年龄组呈现显著差异(p0.05);As和Hg在56～75岁年龄组居民头发中含量最高,与其它组比较均达到了显著水平(p0.05).PCA和Pearson分析表明4种重金属间相关性较好,大连市居民对4种重金属暴露途径基本相同.     

武汉阳逻砾石层ESR地层年代学研究

武汉"阳逻砾石层"是长江中下游新生代的一个重要的岩石地层单位,其形成年代一直是地质和地理学者关注的重要问题。为了更深入地探讨这一问题,在它的两个典型的剖面中采集了8个样品进行ESR地质年代测试,测试结果表明,阳逻砾石层形成于新近纪早更新世中晚期。将本次ESR测年数据与前人的热释光的测年数据、江汉平原西缘和北缘相同岩石地层层位和相同地貌位置的砾石层的测年数据、长江中下游网纹砾石层的测年数据比较发现,它们具有较好的一致性。     

Prenatal diagnosis in advanced maternal age. Amniocentesis or CVS,a patient's choice or lack of information?

Ninety-six women of advanced maternal age were interviewed about the way they obtained information on prenatal diagnosis and about how the decision was made as to what procedure was to be performed (transabdominal chorionic villus sampling (TA-CVS) or amnio-centesis). In the CVS group, women visited their physician or midwife earlier in pregnancy (mean 7.1 weeks) than those in the amniocentesis group (mean 10.7 weeks). The availability of prenatal diagnosis was not mentioned during the first antenatal visit in 55 per cent of women from the amniocentesis group as opposed to 25 per cent from the TA-CVS group. Approximately 40 per cent of women eligible for prenatal diagnosis did not receive any information from the referring body prior to counselling at our centre. Only 29 per cent of women who underwent amniocentesis had actually chosen this procedure; 71 per cent were too late to undergo TA-CVS at 12 weeks. It is concluded that information to the patient must be improved in order to ensure early referral for prenatal diagnosis.     

Estimating the risk of a fetal autosomal trisomy at mid-trimester using maternal serum alpha fetoprotein and age: A retrospective study of 142 pregnancies

Risks appropriate for mid-trimester prenatal screening for autosomal trisomies have been estimated from a combination of maternal age and maternal serum (MS) alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at 16–20 weeks gestation. Published data on the frequency of Down's syndrome births relative to maternal age were modified to include the additional age-related frequency of trisomy 18 and trisomy 13 cases to provide an overall risk for an autosomal trisomy at midtrimester. MSAFP results from a retrospective study of 142 affected (114 trisomy 21, 19 trisomy 18, and 9 trisomy 13)and 113 000 unaffected pregnancies were converted to multiples of the appropriate gestational median (MOM). The AFP levels in the autosomal trisomy pregnancies were found to be significantly reduced at 0.72 MOM of the unaffected pregnancies. Risks (likelihood ratios) were derived from the overlapping log Gaussian distributions for affected and unaffected pregnancies and combined with maternal age risks to give the overall odds of an affected pregnancy. A mid-trimester cut-off risk of 1:280 gave an estimated 37 per cent detection rate for autosomal trisomies in the west of Scotland population for a follow-up (false-positive) rate of 6.6 per cent. These figures compare with a 30 per cent detection and 6.7 per cent false-positive rate if age 35 years and over is used as the sole criterion for selection of at-risk pregnancies.     

Maternal age specific rates for chromosome aberrations and factors influencing them: Report of a collaborative european study on 52 965 amniocenteses

Maternal age specific rates for all major chromosome aberrations have been determined in 52 965 pregnancies in mothers 35 years of age and over at the time of amniocentesis. Rates increase exponentially with advancing maternal age for trisomies 21, 18 and 13, and for the XXX and XXY syndromes, but in the autosomal trisomies this rise appears to be followed by a levelling off at the upper end of the age range. A significant inverse relationship with maternal age is found for 45,X cases. It is postulated that these various patterns are the result of the interaction of three principal factors: a maternal age effect acting particularly on first meiotic nondisjunction: a higher spontaneous abortion rate with advancing maternal age for aneuploid as compared to euploid conceptions; and an increased probability of spontaneous abortion before the time of amniocentesis for conceptions with more extensive chromosome imbalance. A stepwise logistic regression analysis of 13 299 pregnancies in which both parental ages are known shows that the father's age does not influence these maternal age specific rates, with the possible exception of the 47,XXY syndrome.