20世纪重大自然灾害评析

人类在科学技术上取得了辉煌成绩的同时,在认识自然和改造自然方面也得到了才识和新的认识,这一教训主要是来自自然灾害。根据收集到的全球自然灾害有关数据,对２０世纪全球主要自然灾害特征分布特点进行了分析,并对其成因提出了看法。     

1994／1995全球重大自然灾害的统计分析

１９９４／１９９５年是６０年代以来全球自然灾害经济损失最大的两年。作者根据收集到的信息，对全球这两年的重大自然灾害的分布及灾情作了统计。结果表明，９０年代全球重大自然灾害的经济和保险损失存在上升趋势。最后，对其成因进行了分析     

Should We Protect the Strong or the Weak? Risk,Resilience, and the Selection of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract: It is thought that recovery of marine habitats from uncontrollable disturbance may be faster in marine reserves than in unprotected habitats. But which marine habitats should be protected, those areas at greatest risk or those at least risk? We first defined this problem mathematically for 2 alternate conservation objectives. We then analytically solved this problem for both objectives and determined under which conditions each of the different protection strategies was optimal. If the conservation objective was to maximize the chance of having at least 1 healthy site, then the best strategy was protection of the site at lowest risk. On the other hand, if the goal was to maximize the expected number of healthy sites, the optimal strategy was more complex. If protected sites were likely to spend a significant amount of time in a degraded state, then it was best to protect low‐risk sites. Alternatively, if most areas were generally healthy then, counterintuitively, it was best to protect sites at higher risk. We applied these strategies to a situation of cyclone disturbance of coral reefs on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. With regard to the risk of cyclone disturbance, the optimal reef to protect differed dramatically, depending on the expected speed of reef recovery of both protected and unprotected reefs. An adequate consideration of risk is fundamental to all conservation actions and can indicate surprising routes to conservation success.     

Remodelling reparation: changes in the compensation of victims of natural catastrophes in Belgium and the Netherlands

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the development and present state of compensation for victims of catastrophes in Belgium and the Netherlands. These two neighbouring countries have both seen legislative changes in this field in recent years, albeit with different outcomes. The paper thus analyses to what extent the two compensation scheme structures allow for conclusions as to the comparative benefits of a comprehensive insurance scheme for natural disasters. From the perspective of law and economics, the evolution of private insurance and public intervention through compensation funds, the preference for private or public solutions and the actual financing of these are examined. Drawing on practical experience, such as the case of flood risks, the solutions are tested in view of incentive-based financing. The paper concludes that the private insurance market is more developed in Belgium than it is in the Netherlands, where the reform process has not yet ended.     

1998年全球自然灾害评析

１９９８年是全球自然灾害经济损失特别大的一年,仅次于１９９５年,根据收集到的全球自然灾害数据,对全球主要自然灾害特征和分布特点提出和分析,并对其成因进行了探讨。     

2000年全球重大自然灾害概述

２０００年是全球自然灾害经济损失较为一般的年份。根据收集到的全球自然灾害记录的数据，客观地对全球主要自然灾害的特征和分布特点进行了分析，并对其成因进行了探讨．     

早更新世末中更新世早期的环境事件与灾变

综术了发生在早更新世末到中更新世早期：即大致从１．１￣０．７ＭａＢＰ的各种环境事件,包括气候异常变化、构造活化、侵蚀沉积事件、天文事件、生物迁徙以及古地磙的异常等,其中气候异常和构造活化是基本的环境事件,对其它事件有控制作用。根据气候异常和构造活化的特征,可以认为：从１．１ＭａＢＰ和０．７ＭａＢＰ是一个连续的环境异常过程,这一时期各类环境事件集中发生,环境事件或为灾变的原因,或为灾变的结果,处自然