Congestion at Recreation Areas: Empirical Evidence on Perceptions, Mitigating Behaviour and Management Preferences

Economists have tried to estimate the demand for recreation under conditions of congestion, struggling especially with a model that uses observed rather than stated behaviour to obtain results. This paper reports statistical analyses of data on perceptions, mitigating behaviour and management preferences in order to highlight the difficulties related to empirical analysis of congestion. We offer evidence that may be of assistance to those wishing to construct measures of congestion for use in an observed behaviour model. The results may also be useful to recreation area managers who can implement a quota or permit system or change site entry or access fees to control access to the site they manage.     

Compromising sustainable mobility? The case of the Gothenburg congestion tax

Congestion charging is widely considered an effective policy measure to regulate and reduce car traffic demand and associated environmental and health problems in cities. However, introducing restrictive measures to constrain individual choice and behaviour for the common good has often proven difficult. Using a specific case, the Gothenburg congestion tax introduced in 2013, we study the policy process behind the introduction of the tax and assess to what extent green values were compromised along the way. The tax was made possible by co-financing infrastructure investments, including roads, which seemingly contradicts stated goals of reducing car traffic and emissions. We show how the tax was ‘muddled through’ in a top-down political compromise by a grand coalition where different interests could legitimate their support in relation to the achievement of partially conflicting objectives and projects. However, to declare the regulatory goals fully neutralised would be to underestimate the scheme's direct environmental effects and restrictive potential. Finding a compromise with powerful political and economic interests was necessary to get it off the ground. Once launched, however, it can over time regain its restrictive properties and lead to more profound long-term effects.     

Why Singapore's land transportation energy consumption is relatively low

Since the early 1970s, Singapore has enacted a number of measures to tackle traffic congestion, including measures to restrain vehicle ownership. Although Singapore's per capita GDP is comparable to that of OECD countries, the present car-ownership level in Singapore (10 cars per 100 people) is only a fraction of levels in the OECD countries. Traffic flow in this city-State is relatively smooth, even during peak hours. Although the measures taken were aimed primarily at tackling traffic congestion, they have had other positive impacts, such as reducing energy consumption, air pollution and CO₂ emissions. This article presents an overview of the transportation measures and initiatives in Singapore, and analyses two of the transport demand management measures in detail: the vehicle restraint measure, in particular the unique vehicle quota system introduced in 1990; and the two road pricing systems, i.e. the area licensing scheme (ALS) that operated from 1974 to 1998, and the electronic road pricing system (ERP) that went into operation in 1998. Energy and environmental impacts are then discussed, and finally factors contributing to the success of these schemes. Although certain conditions are unique to Singapore, the experience shows that substantial energy and environmental benefits can be achieved through managing urban transportation system in an integrated and innovative way.     

人员疏散拥堵问题的博弈分析

从经济学的角度,应用博弈论中经典的"公共地悲剧"理论,分析疏散出口、安全通道等没有排他性所有权的稀缺性资源供给与需求之间的矛盾,提出了人员疏散过程中的博弈数学模型,揭示在理性的疏散人员追求自身收益最大化和没有有效约束与管制的前提条件下,疏散出口等公共资源会被过度使用的现象,即人员疏散过程中的"公共地悲剧"——人员拥堵,并在所提出的博弈模型基础上,从设计与管理的角度,给出一些解决拥堵问题的建议和对策。     

考虑人群拥堵的疏散出口选择行为研究及建模

出口选择是疏散过程中最重要和复杂的决策行为之一,受到空间结构、人群分布和行人认知等多方面因素的影响,为了使疏散仿真能够合理地模拟出行人的寻路和逃生过程,提出了考虑人群拥堵的出口选择模型。该模型基于多元Logit离散选择模型,考虑到影响个体疏散时间的因素以及对不同出口类型的偏好。研究发现个体的疏散时间随着拥堵人群位置的不同而有所差异,从而以决策者而不是出口的角度定义了一个计数区域来估计影响决策者排队时间的人数。并且研究出口重新选择的触发条件和程序。将出口选择模型和程序引入BuildingEXODUS软件进行疏散仿真,通过对比显示,仿真结果更符合真实情况,特别是在具有障碍物和人群分布不均匀的场景中更显优势。     

基于不同时段人群特征的地铁疏散仿真研究

针对地铁不同运行时段人群特征对疏散的影响,对每小时进入地铁站人数进行观测,将地铁运行时段分为高峰时段、平峰时段与低峰时段,并对各时段某一时刻列车到站数量进行记录。对不同运行时段的年龄、携带行李情况、速度等人群特征进行观测记录,根据各时段人群特征对地铁站进行Pathfinder疏散仿真建模。从疏散用时、拥堵点、人员疏散路径、出口利用率等方面对各运行时段人员疏散仿真结果进行分析,得到高峰时段两列列车同时到站时,疏散拥堵现象明显,且两列列车到站与1列车到站两种情况下的人员疏散存在一定差异;平峰与低峰时段两列列车同时到站疏散拥堵点明显,出口利用率情况较为一致。最后,对提高地铁疏散效率提出几点建议措施:注重时段差异性的地铁疏散管理;增强拥堵点的疏散引导;缩短列车行车间隔。     

道路交通拥堵与城市雾霾污染的关系研究

道路拥堵与城市雾霾是机动车行驶带来的两个负溢出效应,大量文献揭示了城市机动车行驶对二者带来的影响,却鲜有文献关注道路拥堵程度与雾霾污染之间的内在联系。这其中的缘由在于,一则道路拥堵程度与雾霾污染之间互为因果,同时有共同的影响因素,由此带来的内生性难题难以有效解决;其次,采用统一标准来测度不同城市道路拥堵程度的数据难以获得。为此利用高德地图(Amap)根据机动车定位导航系统提供的城市拥堵延时的大数据,来捕获各省会城市每日道路交通的拥堵程度,同时运用各城市每日的燃油销售价格、国际市场原油价格以及上一周同一工作日道路的拥堵程度作为工具变量,通过两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)估计道路拥堵程度对城市雾霾污染的影响。回归结果表明:①以城市燃油价格作为工具变量时,道路拥堵程度每增加1%,会导致省会城市PM2.5、PM10分别增加6.5%和6.7%;②以国际原油价格、上一周同一个工作日拥堵程度作为工具变量,以及改用GMM方法进行估计时,基准回归的结论仍然稳健,城市的治堵举措与治霾举措能够相互协同;③进一步以省会城市新增轨道交通来实现治堵和治霾的例子表明,发展轨道交通来实现治堵与治霾的协同效应,要以有效治堵作为前提,否则减排治霾的协同效果无法实现。     

A study of the blast wave shape from elongated VCEs

Elongated congestion patterns are common at chemical processing and petroleum refining facilities due to the arrangement of processing units. The accidental vapor cloud explosion (VCE) which occurred at the Buncefield, UK facility involved an elongated congested volume formed by the trees and undergrowth along the site boundary. Although elongated congested volumes are common, there have been few evaluations reported for the blast loads produced by elongated VCEs. Standard VCE blast load prediction techniques do not directly consider the impact of this congested volume geometry versus a more compact geometry.This paper discusses an evaluation performed to characterize the blast loads from elongated VCEs and to identify some significant differences in the resulting blast wave shape versus those predicted by well-known VCE blast load methodologies (e.g., BST and TNO MEM). The standard blast curves are based on an assumption that the portion of the flammable gas cloud participating in the VCE is hemispherical and located at grade level. The results of this evaluation showed that the blast wave shape for an elongated VCE in the near-field along the long-axis direction is similar to that for an acoustic wave generated in hemispherical VCEs with a low flame speed. Like an acoustic wave, an elongated VCE blast wave has a very quick transition from the positive phase peak pressure to the negative phase peak pressure, relative to the positive phase duration. The magnitude of the applied negative pressure on a building face depends strongly on the transition time between the positive and negative phase peak pressures, and this applied negative phase can be important to structural response under certain conditions. The main purpose of this evaluation was to extend previous work in order to investigate how an elongated VCE geometry impacts the resultant blast wave shape in the near-field. The influence of the normalized flame travel distance and the flame speed on the blast wave shape was examined. Deflagration and deflagration-to-detonation transition regimes were also identified for unconfined elongated VCEs as a function of the normalized flame travel distance and flame speed attained at a specified flame travel distance.     

THE ROLE OF USER FEES AND CONGESTION TOLLS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF INLAND WATERWAYS1

ABSTRACT In this paper, we discuss how user fees and congestion tolls can be used to improve the efficiency and equity with which the inland waterway system is managed. The advantages and disadvantages of various types of user fees (fuel taxes, segment tolls, and license fees) are presented. The rationale for the employment of congestion tolls on congested waterways is discussed. A segment toll that is equated to average variable cost is recommended for uncongested existing waterwyas. When existing waterways are congested, congestion tolls, in addition to the segment tolls, are recommended, A two-part tariff, consisting of segment tolls and an annual license fee, is recommended for “new” uncongested waterways. A three-part tariff, consisting of the first two parts plus congestion tolls, is recommended for “new” congested waterways.     

Voting on sustainable transport: communication and governance challenges in Greater Manchester's ‘congestion charge’ referendum

In December 2008, the Greater Manchester electorate voted to reject a £3 billion package of transport measures that would have included investment in the conurbation's bus, tram and rail networks and walking and cycling infrastructure, together with, and partially funded by, the introduction of a congestion charge. The proposals followed a successful bid to the UK Government Transport Innovation Fund (TIF). High levels of car use present challenges to cities, and the TIF bid can be seen as an attempt to address these by promoting and facilitating a modal shift. The paper reflects on the debates surrounding the proposals, which led to a referendum. In particular, it explores the challenges of communicating complex, controversial plans in a fragmented and contested political arena.