The Value of Using Feasibility Models in Systematic Conservation Planning to Predict Landholder Management Uptake

Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple‐use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders’ willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders’ decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best‐supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost‐effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost‐effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost‐efficient and effective manner.     

A strategy for wildlife management in depopulating rural areas of Japan

Former ranges of wild animals have been reestablished in many developed countries. However, this reestablishment has led to increasing human–wildlife conflict in agroforest ecosystems. In Japan, human–wildlife conflict, such as crop raiding by and ecological impacts of wild ungulates and primates, is a serious problem in depopulated rural areas due to these animal range expansions and increased abundances. Japan's human population is predicted to decline by 24% by 2050, and approximately 20% of agricultural settlements will become completely depopulated. In this scenario, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife (e.g., hunting and habitat alteration) will continue to decrease and human–wildlife conflict will increase due to increasing wildlife recovery. Japan's local governments plan to slow range recovery, prevent species reestablishment, or remove recolonizing large mammals through lethal control. This strategy, however, is not cost-effective, and workforce shortages in depopulated communities make it infeasible. Moreover, the suppression of wildlife prevents the recovery of ecological functions and thus would degrade regional biodiversity. The declining pressure on wildlife that accompanies human depopulation will prevent the restoration of any past states of human–wildlife interaction. We suggest human-used areas in rural landscapes be aggregated in compact cities and that in transition zones between human settlements and depopulated lands that land-sharing approaches be applied. Concentrating management efforts in compact cities may effectively decrease human–wildlife conflict, rather than intensifying human pressures. Reforestation of depopulated lands may lead to recovery of wildlife habitats, their ecosystem functions, and regional biodiversity due to minimization of negative anthropogenic effects (land-sparing approach). Balancing resolution of human–wildlife conflict and ecological rewilding could become a new, challenging task for regional wildlife managers.     

Long‐Term Dynamics of a Fragmented Rainforest Mammal Assemblage

Abstract: Habitat fragmentation is a severe threat to tropical biotas, but its long‐term effects are poorly understood. We evaluated longer‐term changes in the abundance of larger (>1 kg) mammals in fragmented and intact rainforest and in riparian “corridors” in tropical Queensland, with data from 190 spotlighting surveys conducted in 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. In 1986–1987 when most fragments were already 20–50 years old, mammal assemblages differed markedly between fragmented and intact forest. Most vulnerable were lemuroid ringtail possums (Hemibelideus lemuroides), followed by Lumholtz's tree‐kangaroos (Dendrolagus lumholtzi) and Herbert River ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus herbertensis). Further changes were evident 20 years later. Mammal species richness fell significantly in fragments, and the abundances of 4 species, coppery brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula johnstoni), green ringtail possums (Pseudochirops archeri), red‐legged pademelons (Thylogale stigmatica), and tree‐kangaroos, declined significantly. The most surprising finding was that the lemuroid ringtail, a strict rainforest specialist, apparently recolonized one fragment, despite a 99.98% decrease in abundance in fragments and corridors. A combination of factors, including long‐term fragmentation effects, shifts in the surrounding matrix vegetation, and recurring cyclone disturbances, appear to underlie these dynamic changes in mammal assemblages.     

Wild meat trade over the last 45 years in the Peruvian Amazon

The trade in wild meat is an important economic component of rural people's livelihoods, but it has been perceived to be among the main causes of the decline of wildlife species. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to light an additional concern of wildlife markets as a major human-health challenge. We analyzed data from the largest longitudinal monitoring (1973–2018) of the most important urban wild-meat markets in Iquitos, Peru, to examine the trends in and impacts of these markets on people's livelihoods. Over the last 45 years, wild meat sales increased at a rate of 6.4 t/year (SD 2.17), paralleling urban population growth. Wild meat sales were highest in 2018 (442 t), contributing US$2.6 million (0.76%) to the regional gross domestic product. Five species of ungulates and rodents accounted for 88.5% of the amount of biomass traded. Vulnerable and Endangered species represented 7.0% and 0.4% of individuals sold, respectively. Despite growth in sales, the contribution of wild meat to overall urban diet was constant: 1–2%/year of total meat consumed. This result was due to greater availability and higher consumption of cheaper meats (e.g., in 2018, poultry was 45.8% cheaper and was the most consumed meat) coupled with the lack of economic incentives to harvest wild meat species in rural areas. Most wild meat was sold salted or smoked, reducing the likelihood of foodborne diseases. Community-based wildlife management plans and the continued trade bans on primates and threatened taxa may avoid biodiversity loss. Considering the recent COVID-19 pandemic, future management plans should include potential viral hosts and regulation and enforcement of hygiene practices in wild-meat markets.     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

Effects of an Exotic Plant Invasion on Native Understory Plants in a Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract: The dry forests of southern India, which are endangered tropical ecosystems and among the world's most important tiger (Panthera tigris) habitats, are extensively invaded by exotic plants. Yet, experimental studies exploring the impacts of these invasions on native plants in these forests are scarce. Consequently, little is known about associated implications for the long‐term conservation of tigers and other biodiversity in these habitats. I studied the impacts of the exotic plant Lantana camara on understory vegetation in a dry‐forest tiger habitat in southern India. I compared the richness, composition, and abundance of tree seedlings, herbs, and shrubs and the abundance of grass among plots in which Lantana was cleared or left standing. These plots were distributed across two blocks—livestock free and livestock grazed. Removal of Lantana had an immediate positive effect on herb–shrub richness in the livestock‐free block, but had no effect on that of tree seedlings in either livestock block. Tree‐seedling and herb–shrub composition differed significantly between Lantana treatment and livestock block, and Lantana removal significantly decreased survival of tree seedlings. Nevertheless, the absence of trees, in any stage between seedling and adult, indicates that Lantana may stall tree regeneration. Lantana removal decreased the abundance of all understory strata, probably because forage plants beneath Lantana are less accessible to herbivores, and plants in Lantana‐free open plots experienced greater herbivory. Reduced access to forage in invaded habitats could negatively affect ungulate populations and ultimately compromise the ability of these forests to sustain prey‐dependent large carnivores. Additional research focused on understanding and mitigating threats posed by exotic plants may be crucial to the long‐term protection of these forests as viable tiger habitats.     

Public Willingness to Pay for Recovering and Downlisting Threatened and Endangered Marine Species

Abstract: Nonmarket valuation research has produced economic value estimates for a variety of threatened, endangered, and rare species around the world. Although over 40 value estimates exist, it is often difficult to compare values from different studies due to variations in study design, implementation, and modeling specifications. We conducted a stated‐preference choice experiment to estimate the value of recovering or downlisting 8 threatened and endangered marine species in the United States: loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta), leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica), upper Willamette River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi), and smalltooth sawfish (Pristis pectinata). In May 2009, we surveyed a random sample of U.S. households. We collected data from 8476 households and estimated willingness to pay for recovering and downlisting the 8 species from these data. Respondents were willing to pay for recovering and downlisting threatened and endangered marine taxa. Willingness‐to‐pay values ranged from $40/household for recovering Puget Sound Chinook salmon to $73/household for recovering the North Pacific right whale. Statistical comparisons among willingness‐to‐pay values suggest that some taxa are more economically valuable than others, which suggests that the U.S. public's willingness to pay for recovery may vary by species.     

Shifting Baselines and The Extinction of The Caribbean Monk Seal

The recent extnction of the Caribbean monk seal Monachus tropicalis has been considered an example of a human‐caused extinction in the marine environment, and this species was considered a driver of the changes that have occurred in the structure of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems since colonial times. I searched archaeological records, historical data, and geographic names (used as a proxy of the presence of seals) and evaluated the use and quality of these data to conclude that since prehistoric times the Caribbean monk seal was always rare and vulnerable to human predation. This finding supports the hypothesis that in AD 1500, the Caribbean monk seal persisted as a small fragmented population in which individuals were confined to small keys, banks, or isolated islands in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This hypothesis is contrary to the assumption that the species was widespread and abundant historically. The theory that the main driver of monk seal extinction was harvesting for its oil for use in the sugar cane industry of Jamaica during the 18th century is based primarily on anecdotal information and is overemphasized in the literature. An analysis of reported human encounters with this species indicates monk seal harvest was an occasional activity, rather than an ongoing enterprise. Nevertheless, given the rarity of this species and its restricted distribution, even small levels of hunting or specimen collecting must have contributed to its extinction, which was confirmed in the mid‐20th century. Some sources had been overlooked or only partially reviewed, others misinterpreted, and a considerable amount of anecdotal information had been uncritically used. Critical examination of archaeological and historical records is required to infer accurate estimations of the historical abundance of a species. In reconstructing the past to address the shifting baseline syndrome, it is important to avoid selecting evidence to confirm modern prejudices. Puntos de Referencia Cambiantes y la Extinción de la Foca Monje Caribeña     

Toward reassessing data‐deficient species

One in 6 species (13,465 species) on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is classified as data deficient due to lack of information on their taxonomy, population status, or impact of threats. Despite the chance that many are at high risk of extinction, data‐deficient species are typically excluded from global and local conservation priorities, as well as funding schemes. The number of data‐deficient species will greatly increase as the IUCN Red List becomes more inclusive of poorly known and speciose groups. A strategic approach is urgently needed to enhance the conservation value of data‐deficient assessments. To develop this, we reviewed 2879 data‐deficient assessments in 6 animal groups and identified 8 main justifications for assigning data‐deficient status (type series, few records, old records, uncertain provenance, uncertain population status or distribution, uncertain threats, taxonomic uncertainty, and new species). Assigning a consistent set of justification tags (i.e., consistent assignment to assessment justifications) to species classified as data deficient is a simple way to achieve more strategic assessments. Such tags would clarify the causes of data deficiency; facilitate the prediction of extinction risk; facilitate comparisons of data deficiency among taxonomic groups; and help prioritize species for reassessment. With renewed efforts, it could be straightforward to prevent thousands of data‐deficient species slipping unnoticed toward extinction.     

Use of carrion fly iDNA metabarcoding to monitor invasive and native mammals

Severely fragmented habitats increase the risk of extirpation of native mammal populations through isolation, increased edge effects, and predation. Therefore, monitoring the movement of mammal populations through anthropogenically altered landscapes can inform conservation. We used metabarcoding of invertebrate-derived DNA (iDNA) from carrion flies (Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae) to track mammal populations in the wheat belt of southwestern Australia, where widespread clearing for agriculture has removed most of the native perennial vegetation and replaced it with an agricultural system. We investigated whether the localization of the iDNA signal reflected the predicted distribution of 4 native species—echidna (Tachyglossus aculeatus), numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus), woylie (Bettongia penicillata), and chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii)—and 2 non-native, invasive mammal species—fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). We collected bulk iDNA samples (n = 150 samples from 3428 carrion flies) at 3 time points from 3 conservation reserves and 35 road edges between them. We detected 14 of the 40 mammal species known from the region, including our target species. Most detections of target taxa were in conservation reserves. There were a few detections from road edges. We detected foxes and feral cats throughout the study area, including all conservation reserves. There was a significant difference between the diversity (F_3, 98 = 5.91, p < 0.001) and composition (F_3, 43 = 1.72, p < 0.01) of taxa detections on road edges and conservation reserves. Conservation reserves hosted more native biodiversity than road edges. Our results suggest that the signals from iDNA reflect the known distribution of target mammals in this region. The development of iDNA methods shows promise for future noninvasive monitoring of mammals. With further development, iDNA metabarcoding could inform decision-making related to conservation of endangered taxa, invasive species management, and impacts of habitat fragmentation.