Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

铜合金实验室试验与实海挂片结果的比较与分析

目的比较实验室试验结果与实海挂片结果对B10和H62两种铜合金腐蚀性能评价的异同之处。方法采用线性极化、电化学阻抗、显微形貌观察等,比较两种铜合金在实验室模拟海水中的的腐蚀速率、点蚀倾向,结合反应机理、腐蚀形貌、环境等外部因素,分析导致实验室与实海环境下出现差异的原因。结果除榆林海域外,实海挂片与实验室结果都表明,B10试样的平均腐蚀速率小于H62。B10和H62两种铜合金随温度升高腐蚀速率增大,在实验室和实海情况下表现出一致性,且平均腐蚀速率都随浸泡时间的延长而降低。结论在实海环境中,温度不是影响点蚀的主要因素,微生物等其他环境因素会对点蚀产生较大影响。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

肿瘤病房医用直线加速器对周围环境电离辐射的调查分析

通过对医院肿瘤病房医用直线加速器机房周围环境的电离辐射监测调查 ,并计算分析各相关人群的年有效剂量当量 ,结果低于《辐射防护规定》(GB870 3- 88)中的标准限值。表明医用直线加速器机房的辐射防护设施设计是安全合理的 ,具有重要的现实意义 ,该辐射防护设施具有推广价值。     

Modelling of Materials Policies

This paper discusses the REAP1 model and its application for the analysis of CO₂ reduction and waste management policies for Japanese petrochemicals. The pros and cons of this modelling approach in comparison to other tools is elaborated. This is followed by a discussion of the model code and the modelling results. The results show that CO₂ policies can have significant impacts on waste flows and waste policies can have significant CO₂ benefits. As a consequence both effects must be considered in policy assessment. Pricing instruments are recommended instead of regulations because of the complex physical relations in the materials life cycle that extend beyond sector boundaries. A taxation approach is superior to a subsidy approach because rebound effects can be avoided.     

提高化学需氧量比色分析精度的研究

CODCr化学分析因其分析速度快、能够反映废水有机污染的程度,在水质监测和废水处理过程中是一种必测和经常测定的指标。测定方法目前有很多种,常用的有滴定法、比色法等。滴定法技术成熟,结果可靠,是我国环境监测标准中规定的测试方法,但是测试过程仍然繁琐、费时、消耗试剂多;比色法测试速度快,方法简单,试剂用量少,但测试的结果有一定的误差。为此,文章针对提高比色法测定CODCr精度进行了研究,并与滴定法进行了同步测试和比较,结果表明,改进后的测试精度有了很大的提高。     

对熏烟扩散模式应用的探讨

工程上应用的大气污染物扩散模式中 ,熏烟模式由于其非定常性而与其他扩散模式有很大的区别。正确处理模式中各参数及变量的相互关系才能客观地反映污染物对环境影响的结果。本研究通过对熏烟模式的非定常性和各参数、变量相互关系的分析 ,提出了正确使用该模式的方法     

Waste minimization and its ecological evaluation A case study in printed circuit board manufacture

The printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturers face several problems regarding the waste they generate. In Austria, a detailed study for waste minimization was carried out with three PCB manufacturers and one electroplating company. In this project a lot of ecologically and economically effective options were found and implemented. The ecological evaluation of processes is still an unsolved problem. Several evaluation models are tested on selected processes of the project.