Systems thinking in a gas explosion accident – lessons learned from Taiwan

On July 31, 2014, at around 23:57, several huge explosions occurred that lasted for 2 h in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. As a result of a gas leak from a ruptured underground pipeline, the catastrophic incident destroyed more than 6 km of roads, killed 32 people, injured 321 people, and damaged 3259 buildings. Pipeline explosions have been reported as a repeatedly occurring problem, indicating that (1) complex systems are difficult to manage and control, and (2) humans are unable to effectively learn from experiences of accidents. Initial analyses results reveal that root causes of this incident were a combination of a series of complex chain reactions, which eventually led to propylene leakage and explosion. This is a systematic problem, which can hardly be investigated or analyzed by traditional research approaches. Based on the investigation reports and “systems thinking” method, this study develops causal loop diagrams for the Kaohsiung gas explosion to explore the root causes of the disaster. The research results indicate that (1) this pipeline explosion incident was the result of the chain reactions and was the output of a complex system; (2) the mental model of “production first” and “experience gap” were the root causes of the disaster; and (3) to achieve a higher safety standard, continuous education to improve the mental model of “safety first and safety over production” are essential. The findings of this study may contribute toward the improvement of the standard operating procedure for disaster management and preventing similar incidents in the future.     

灾害救援中基于民众心理感知的应急物资多阶段分配问题研究

为有效解决在保证高效完成救援任务的同时考虑受灾民众行为,进而提高灾民对救援处置效果的满意度问题,结合行为运筹学相关理论和不公平厌恶理论,提出民众对于应急物资到达时间的风险感知度量模型,以及民众对于所得到的应急物资数量的公平满意度度量模型,构建基于灾民心理感知的应急物资多阶段调度模型,解决应急物资到达时间风险感知、物资分发数量公平满意度等多目标下的调配决策问题;设计基于蚁群优化思想的求解算法。研究结果表明:通过实例分析对比验证了模型在提升灾区民众对于应急物资分发策略满意度方面的有效性。     

Accepting market failure: Cultural worldviews and the opposition to corrective environmental policies

To explore whether and why people sometimes reject environmental policies that improve individual and collective outcomes, we create an experimental market in which transactions generate a negative externality. Market participants endogenously determine whether to implement corrective policies. We consider three policy instruments (Pigouvian taxes and subsidies, and quantity regulation) and two levels of policy efficiency (full and half). We then explore how individual cultural worldviews might contribute to the rejection of policies that correct the market failure. Our results indicate that people often oppose policies that improve their material outcomes, and we find that such opposition is significantly explained by cultural worldviews. Interesting connections emerge between individual worldviews and specific policy instruments.     

A Framework of Lessons Learned from Community-Based Marine Reserves and Its Effectiveness in Guiding a New Coastal Management Initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion.These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.Published on line     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”     

Organizational embeddedness,turnover intentions,and voluntary turnover: The moderating effects of employee demographic characteristics and value orientations

To explain why some employees who experience high embeddedness contemplate leaving their organizations and others do not, we examined the moderating effects of employee demographic characteristics (age and gender) and value orientations (individualism and risk aversion) between organizational embeddedness and turnover intentions. Turnover intentions were further expected to increase voluntary turnover. Data were collected from 643 full‐time employees at three points in time over a 12‐month time period in a wide range of organizations in Japan, a relatively low turnover context with little prior embeddedness research. Findings show that gender and risk aversion moderate the relationship between organizational embeddedness and turnover intentions, which in turn predict voluntary turnover. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Database for accidents and incidents in the fuel ethanol industry

The purpose of the present research is to collect information about accidents and incidents that have occurred at fuel ethanol facilities from 1998 to October 2014, and to keep complete unified records of them in a database. The developed database contains general information about the accident or incident, its sequence, mitigation measures, its causes and consequences for humans, environment and for the plant. Until now, this information is not available. The work consisted in gathering information from different documental sources and subsequent organization in a database. It complements the previous work made for biodiesel industry and fills the existing gap in the field of ethanol. Knowledge about this information enables us to manage plant risks, since the accidents that are more likely to occur and the main sources of risk can be easily identified. Also, it makes it possible to exchange information with interested third parties. Statistical analysis shows that accident frequency has an oscillatory behavior, rising in the last year. Fire is the most common type of accident, while equipment mechanical failure is the main cause of accident. Partial material loss has been identified as the most common consequence. Finally, some conclusions are obtained concerning to the importance of having an updated and complete accident and incident database.     

Models-as-usual for unusual risks? On the value of catastrophic climate change

We study the role of intertemporal preference representations in a model of economic growth, stock pollutant and endogenous risk of catastrophic collapse. We contrast two polar instances of risk-sensitive preferences: the traditional “discounted utility” model, which imposes a positive rate of pure time preference and risk neutrality with respect to intertemporal utility, and multiplicatively separable preferences, which display risk aversion in that dimension but no pure time preferences. We show that both representations of preferences can rationalize the same economy when there is no collapse risk associated with pollution. Once we introduce a collapse risk whose hazard rate depends on the pollution stock, multiplicatively separable preferences are associated with a much higher value of catastrophic risk reduction, and a more stringent policy response. A relatively high discount rate may thus be compatible with large emissions abatement in the face of a low probability large impact event, reflecting preferences for catastrophic risk reduction.     

Defensive secretion of a flightless grasshopper: Failure to prevent lizard attack

Summary We tested the role of a grasshopper defensive secretion in deterring lizard predation. Adults, but not young larvae, of the chemically defended lubber grasshopperRomalea guttata (=microptera) froth a volatile secretion when attacked by predators. The lizardAnolis carolinensis failed to strike juvenile lubbers (which lack secretion) in laboratory trials. Survivorship of palatable crickets loaded with secretion offered toA. carolinensis was not significantly different from survivorship of control crickets. In experiments designed to investigate if lizards learn an aversion to the secretion, striking times forSceloporus undulatus fed wax worms coated with secretion were not significantly different over three days of trials. Three primary conclusions are drawn from these data. First, the secretion may not be necessary for lubber protection from lizards. Second, lubber secretion does not appear to deter lizards from attacking or eating prey items. Third, lizards do not appear to develop an aversion to the secretion.     

Tired of innovations? Learned helplessness and fatigue in the context of continuous streams of innovation implementation

The business environment faced by contemporary organizations is highly uncertain and constantly changing. Thus, organizations have adopted and implemented a continuous stream of innovations to achieve sustainable growth and survival. Considering the demand for additional resources to implement innovations, the present study explores organizational conditions that may lead to innovation‐targeted burnout and fatigue among employees, which impede their active participation in a subsequent innovation. To this end, we propose a theoretical framework that elucidates the effects of previous innovations on the subsequent implementation behavior of employees. We identify two dimensions of the cognitive appraisal of previous innovations (i.e., intensity and failure) that shape employees' beliefs regarding innovations, such as innovation‐targeted helplessness, which ultimately results in innovation fatigue. Data collected from 84 managers and 397 employees of Chinese and Korean organizations prove the significant role of employee perceptions of previous innovations in shaping the innovation‐targeted helplessness and fatigue of employees, which ultimately affect employee behavior toward a subsequent innovation. The present conceptual and empirical analyses suggest that given continuous streams of innovation implementation, managers should carefully consider employee's perceptions of previous innovations (i.e., intensity and failure) for successful implementation of a subsequent innovation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.