洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

考虑公众选择偏好的应急避难安置双阶段选址-分配模型

为使开放避难场所符合公众自行避难的实际情况,借鉴Huff模型量化公众选择行为,构建双阶段选址-分配模型,第1阶段确定开放避难场所位置,第2阶段将溢出容量的灾民二次分配到有剩余容量的避难场所,并利用改进粒子群算法进行求解。研究结果表明：双阶段选址-分配模型能够实现同一需求点灾民前往不同避难场所的过程,管理者干预政策能够使服务人数大幅度增加,避免资源浪费、灾民流离失所且二次分配情况主要依赖于第1阶段的结果。研究结果可为管理部门规划应急避难场所提供参考。     

农村土地流转影响因素的理论与实证研究——基于农民阶层分化与产权偏好的视角

随着我国经济的发展和社会转型,农民群体逐渐分化为不同职业的农民阶层,由于职业选择的不同以及生活环境的变化,农民在经济收入、产权偏好等方面都出现了巨大的差异,这导致他们对土地流转意愿与决策行为的选择也出现分化,因此,研究由于农民职业分化导致的产权偏好不同及对土地流转的影响就具有重要现实意义.本文利用笔者对江苏省实地问卷调查所得的数据,在理论分析与研究假说的基础上,运用Lagistic模型对农民职业分化、产权偏好与农村土地流转的关系进行了实证分析.研究结果表明:文化程度、职业类别、非农收入比重、是否具有非农就业技能、是否拥有转让权、地权稳定性、地区虚拟变量对土地流转有正向影响,年龄则对土地流转有负向影响,而农业劳动力人数、土地的养老保障作用和是否具有抵押权则对土地流转决策没有显著影响.基于上述研究结论,本文提出了应强化土地产权、完善产权结构、大力发展非农产业和提供非农就业机会、提高农村劳动力职业技术素质、逐步建立和完善农村社会保障体系等政策建议.     

基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价

为解决高层建筑构造复杂、人员密度大、火灾触发因素繁多而造成高层建筑火灾安全评价困难的问题,本文提出基于PCA-FPP-BP神经网络的高层建筑火灾安全评价模型。首先运用主成分分析(PCA)对构建的高层建筑火灾安全评价指标降维处理,筛选主要信息;接着基于三角模糊数构建模糊评判矩阵,利用模糊优先规划(FPP)求解指标的权重值,减少主观的影响;最后考虑到指标间关系错综复杂彼此交叉和反馈的特性,选择BP神经网络对高层建筑火灾安全进行评价。通过工程案例证明该评价模型的实用性以及可靠性。     

管制员安全能力模型研究

为准确评价管制员安全能力,基于能力的定义和管制员工作职责,界定管制员安全能力的内涵;依据该内涵及其工作特性,建立由身体素质、业务素质和意识3个结构维度组成的管制员安全能力模型。其中,身体素质包括生理状况和心理状况;业务素质包括教育状况、培训状况、技能状况和经验状况;意识包括安全意识和工作意识。在各项指标性质差异较大情况下,利用功效系数法实现评价指标的标准化以减小误差,客观反映指标情况,同时采用G1-法和熵值法集成的主客观综合赋权法确定指标的权重,在一定程度上弥补主客观单一赋权的不足,最后通过逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)评价管制员安全能力。结果表明,按照从大到小排序对管制员安全能力的影响因素依次为意识、身体素质和业务素质。就对所论能力的影响而言,心理状况强于生理状况;技能状况强教育、培训和经验状况;安全意识对意识的影响大于工作意识。     

基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究

对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。     

Why do <Emphasis Type="Italic">Manduca sexta</Emphasis> feed from white flowers? Innate and learnt colour preferences in a hawkmoth

Flower colour is an important signal used by flowering plants to attract pollinators. Many anthophilous insects have an innate colour preference that is displayed during their first foraging bouts and which could help them locate their first nectar reward. Nevertheless, learning capabilities allow insects to switch their colour preferences with experience and thus, to track variation in floral nectar availability. Manduca sexta, a crepuscular hawkmoth widely studied as a model system for sensory physiology and behaviour, visits mostly white, night-blooming flowers lacking UV reflectance throughout its range in the Americas. Nevertheless, the spectral sensitivity of the feeding behaviour of naïve moths shows a narrow peak around 450 nm wavelengths, suggesting an innate preference for the colour blue. Under more natural conditions (i.e. broader wavelength reflectance) than in previous studies, we used dual choice experiments with blue- and white-coloured feeders to investigate the innate preference of naïve moths and trained different groups to each colour to evaluate their learning capabilities. We confirmed the innate preference of M. sexta for blue and found that these moths were able to switch colour preferences after training experience. These results unequivocally demonstrate that M. sexta moths innately prefer blue when presented against white flower models and offer novel experimental evidence supporting the hypothesis that learning capabilities could be involved in their foraging preferences, including their widely observed attraction to white flowers in nature.     

Female courtship in the Banggai cardinalfish: honest signals of egg maturity and reproductive output?

Despite the vast literature on male courtship behaviour, little is known about the function and information content of female courtship behaviour. Female courtship behaviour may be important in many species, particularly where both sexes invest heavily in the offspring, and if such behaviours contain honest information regarding a females potential reproductive investment, they may be particularly important in male mate choice. Using observations of two female courtship behaviours (the rush and the twitch) from experimental pairings in the Banggai cardinalfish (Pterapogon kauderni), I addressed the question of whether these courtship behaviours contained information on female reproductive output (clutch weight) and egg maturity (proximity to spawning), traits commonly associated with male mate choice. I especially focused on the importance of these courtship behaviours in relation to other female characters, such as size and condition, using multiple regression. I found that one of these behaviours, the rush, was strongly associated with fecundity, whereas size, condition and the twitch were not. Further, I found that the twitch behaviour was associated with how close to actual spawning a female was. The results suggest that female courtship behaviour may convey highly important information in a mate choice context. I discuss the adaptive value of honest information in female courtship behaviour in light of these results.Communicated by K. Lindström     

基于鱼类产卵需求的栖息地修复效果评价

根据鱼类产卵需求对工程修复效果开展评价对掌握栖息地状态和指导工程设计极其重要。以黑水河为实例,从鱼类产卵的生境需求出发,结合现场监测和数值模拟方法量化产卵栖息地的参照状态,构建指标体系进行河流鱼类产卵期栖息地质量评价,以获得修复工程对鱼类产卵生境真实的修复效果。结果表明：2019—2021年黑水河产卵期的鱼类栖息地综合评价得分分别为63.04、83.52与83.52,鱼类产卵栖息地得到改善,评价结果表明生态修复工程对产卵栖息地有明显修复效果;黑水河不同河段鱼类产卵栖息地质量空间分布上呈现出修复前下游河段(R4~R6)优于上游河段(R1~R3)的特征,修复后不同河段评分均有不同程度的增加,增幅为21.33%~59.15%;通过对敏感因子进行溯源可知,修复前黑水河鱼类产卵期栖息地质量主要受河流连通性和水力条件限制,修复后连通性得到大幅度改善,但水体流速和弗劳德数与保护鱼类产卵的偏好状态仍具有一定差距,后期修复工作应结合鱼类产卵喜好针对水体流态进行局部塑造和改善。

     

Transfer of pesticides to the brew during mate drinking process and their relationship with physicochemical properties

In order to evaluate the extraction of pesticide residues that are transferred to the brew during mate drinking process of P.U.1 yerba mate leaves (Ilex paraguariensis), a special device to simulate the way in which mate is drunk in Uruguay was developed. The transfer to the brew of 12 organophosphates, 5 synthethic pyrethroids and one organochlorine pesticide from spiked samples was studied. The relationship between the transfer data thus obtained and physicochemical properties like water solubility (Ws), octanol-water coefficient (Kow) and Henry's constant (H) was evaluated. The extractability of the pesticide residues from yerba mate can be correlated with log Ws and log Kow. These transfer values allowed the calculation of ARLs (acceptable residue level) for the pesticides following Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Health Organizaion (WHO) guidelines. These results can help the future establishment of maximum residue levels (MRLs)