铁路环境噪声对居民冲击影响的模糊综合评价

铁路环境噪声对居民的冲击影响程度不仅与列车运行辐射噪声级有关，而且还与人口密度，及白天、夜间的人口比例等因素有关。考虑以上诸多因素，采用模糊综合评价方法进行铁路环境噪声对居民的冲击影响的综合比较评价，并通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和可靠性，为铁路环境噪声评价提供了新的方法。     

洪水灾害评估体系研究

从系统论的观点出发，提出了洪水灾害系统的概念，并结合洪水灾害评估的特点，设计了洪水灾害评估体系的总体框架。     

结构面分布特征对隧道围岩变形影响的数值模拟分析

结构面对隧道围岩变形及稳定性起着决定性作用。运用三维离散元方法(3DEC)研究结构面分布特征,重点是结构面线密度1/λ、强度和倾角对隧道围岩变形的影响,总结了结构面分布与围岩变形特征的关系。结果表明,在结构面强度较低的情况下,结构面线密度对隧道变形的影响较大,其影响可分为两种情况:①λ≤0.2时,围岩的弯曲变形大于沿结构面的剪切变形,属于应力型大变形;②0.2<λ≤0.4时,沿结构面的剪切变形大于围岩的弯曲变形,属于结构型大变形。结构面倾角主要影响围岩大变形发生的位置。将数值模拟结果与国内工程实例实测变形资料相对比,发现一致性较好。本研究结果对隧道支护结构的设计以及施工设计具有借鉴意义与指导作用。     

Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

Comparison of Point Estimation Techniques in the Spatial Analysis of Radium-226, Radium-228 and Potassium-40 in Soil

Many environmental surveys require the implementation of estimation techniques to determine the spatial distribution of the variable being investigated. Traditional methods of interpolation and estimation, for example, inverse distance squared and triangulation often ignore features of the data set such as anisotropy which may have a significant impact on the quality of the estimates produced. Geostatistical techniques may offer an improved method of estimation by modelling the spatial continuity of the variable using semi-variogram analysis. The theoretical model fitted to the semi-variogram is then used in the assignation of weighting factors to the samples surrounding the location to be estimated. This paper outlines the results of a comparison between three common estimation methods, polygonal, triangulation and inverse distance squared and a geostatistical method, in the estimation of soil radionuclide activities. The geostatistical estimation method known as kriging performed best over a range of parameters used to test the performance of the methods. Kriging exhibited the best correlation between actual and estimated values, the narrowest error distribution and the lowest overall estimation error. Polygonal estimation was best at reproducing the data set distribution. Conditional bias was evident in all the methods, low values being over-estimated and high values being under-estimated.     

Anuran Development, Density and Diversity in Relation to Agricultural Activity in the Holland River Watershed, Ontario, Canada (1990–1992)

Significantly lower anuran species diversity and density was recorded in a vegetable growing area relative to upstream and downstream sites in the Holland River watershed, Ontario, Canada. Egg hatching success and tadpole deformity rates of American toads (Bufo americanus americanus), green frogs (Rana clamitans melanota) and northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) eggs in water from field sites and control water were assessed. Compared to the control and the upstream site, the total abnormality rate (unhatched eggs plus deformed tadpoles) was higher for American toads in water from the agricultural and downstream sites. Total abnormality was higher in green frog eggs in water from the agricultural site and a downstream site. Trace concentrations of organophosphorus pesticides were detected most often in agricultural zone water and sediments than in upstream and downstream sites. Organochlorine pesticide residues, especially in agricultural zone samples, exceeded the no effect level guidelines for the protection of aquatic life. Ammonia, phosphorus, particulates, BOD and TKN were highest in the agricultural zone. Significant correlations between these parameters and anuran development suggest nutrient run-off as a causal or contributing factor in lower anuran diversity, density and reproductive success of American toads and green frogs in the site dominated by agriculture.     

电子产品野外环境下温循加速载荷谱编制方法

目的 将电子产品在野外环境下日变化波动与季节差异明显的温度载荷编制成温循载荷谱和转换为加速载荷谱。方法 通过四点雨流计数法提取原谱中的载荷循环信息,对提取的循环信息进行分布拟合、相关性检验等统计分析,进而构建循环均值与范围值的联合概率密度函数,再运用概率密度法,编制出8×8二维环境载荷谱。在二维载荷谱基础上,编制出温循载荷谱,使用针对电子部件参数修正的加速方程转化为加速载荷谱。结果 利用野外作业现场1个作业周期内的气温纪录,提供了一套编制温循载荷谱和转换加速载荷谱的合理化流程和解决方案。结论 该制谱方法可以利用原始环境谱中绝大部分有效信息,较好地还原电子部件野外作业阶段经历的温度变化过程,为电子产品的加速寿命试验和使用寿命预测奠定基础。     

METHODOLOGIES FOR CALIBRATION AND PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS OF A WATERSHED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.     

关于随机振动试验

为了更好地进行随机振动试验,本文叙述了随机振动试验中需要的一些基本技术方法。     

长期施肥对红壤稻田耕层土壤碳储量的影响

以红壤性稻田土壤为对象,研究了长期施肥（1990～2006年）对稻田表层土壤碳储量及固碳潜力的影响,讨论了耕层厚度变化对碳储量估算及处理间差异的影响.研究发现,与长期施用化肥相比,有机物的循环利用能显著提高红壤性稻田土壤碳储量,其碳储量为57.7～66.2 t/hm²,比试验前高出18.7～27.2 t/hm²,而长期施用化肥碳储量提高幅度平均为5.4 t/hm².红壤性稻田土壤饱和固碳量为84.0 t/hm²,与目前碳储量相比还有17.8～43.7 t/hm²的固碳潜力.研究证实,土壤碳储量与土壤容重和表层土壤厚度的变化密切相关,以20 cm或23 cm作为统计厚度估算表层土壤的碳储量将分别低估20.6％和11.3％,其中有机物施用处理碳储量低估幅度最大（分别为26.8％和18.9％）;另外,用相同统计厚度进行碳储量估算减小了不同施肥处理间的差异.从稻田土壤碳储量及固碳潜力来考虑,有机物配合化肥施用是红壤稻田较优的施肥方式.