用等维灰色动态预测法预测大连湾污染物排放量

用少量数据建立的长期预测模型所得预测结果一出散性较大，本文介绍的等维灰色动态预测去弥补了这一缺陷。依据这一方法编制的“灰色原理应用系统”软件包，在获得预测结果的同时，还可得到预测值的变化过程及模型的相应参数，可即时对预测结果的可靠性作出判断。     

FRACTAL DIMENSION ANALYSIS APPLIED TO THE 7 DRAINAGE BASINS AND THE FLOOD IN CHINA

Foreword　Asoneofthethreegreatdiscoveriesin 1 970s ,thefractaltheoryhasbeenwidelyappliedinmanyfieldsconcerningthesciencesofnatureandthehumanities .Atpresent ,thefractaltheoryhasbeenappliedintherelatedanalysisofwatersystemordisaster .However ,thestud iesonnatureofrelationshipbetweenthewholewatersysteminChinaanddisasterfractalanaly sisarestillintheirinitialperiod .Thepaperpresentsafractaldimensionof 7drainagebasinsandthefloodinChinaaswellastheirpossiblerelations .Itishopedthatthepaperwouldbehe…     

BSE in the UK: Why the Risk Communication Strategy Failed

The 2000 BSE Inquiry report points out that the most serious failure of the UK Government was one of risk communication. This paper argues that the government's failure to communicate the risks BSE posed to humans to a large degree can be traced back to a lack of transparency in the first risk assessment by the Southwood Working Party. This lack of transparency ensured that the working party's risk characterization and recommendations were ambiguous and thus hard to interpret. It also meant that uncertainties were not addressed in a satisfactory way. In the recommendations, the attitude to uncertainty was implicit rather than explicit.The risk communication based on the report amplified these flaws. Most importantly, it did not address the uncertainty at all. Apparently, the reason for this was fear of overreaction by the public. However, the result was counter-productive, because the risk communication did not then appear trustworthy. Later risk assessments and risk communication omitted to correct these flaws. Indeed, the fact that, following receipt of new information, advisory experts and policy makers had changed their views of the risk to humans was never clearly communicated to the public. There seemed to be little faith in the public's ability to reach a balanced judgment regarding the uncertainties.In the concluding section of the paper, this analysis is compared with the food standards agency's (FSA's) approach to BSE. The intervention of this agency was seen as one of the more important efforts to restore consumer confidence in British beef. And the agency certainly appears to be committed to openness and to addressing scientific uncertainty. However, using the risk of BSE in sheep as a case study, the paper shows that transparency – i.e., the clear presentation of factual and normative claims and assumptions underlying advice, and openness about the reasoning based on these claims and assumptions – is less than fully achieved in the FSA's work.     

Normative Framing and Public Attitudes toward Biofuels Policies

Although the power of elite issue frames to shape public attitudes toward different policies is well established, the relative influence of different types of frames in competitive framing environments remains uncertain. For example, we do not fully understand the relative influence of economic versus normative frames on the public's policy attitudes, despite the common use of both types of frames to promote the same policy in many settings. Using data from a 2010 national Internet survey, this paper investigates the relative influence of economic versus normative frames on public attitudes toward the contentious policy issue of biofuels. The results indicate the importance of normative frames in shaping public attitudes on this issue, suggesting the relevance of normative frames more generally in shaping public opinion beyond the narrow confines of typical “morality” policies such as abortion or gambling.     

关于渗透通风条件建筑结构对室内PM2.5浓度水平影响评价模型探讨

我国京津冀地区近年频遭大气PM_2.5污染侵扰,相关研究表明,既使关闭建筑外窗,大气中PM_2.5仍可以通过渗透通风方式进入室内污染环境.为定量评价建筑渗透通风及无室内污染源条件下建筑结构（如外窗缝隙结构、房间建筑结构等）对室内ρ（PM_2.5）的影响规律,基于北京市东城区、朝阳区6个不同建筑结构的房间室内外ρ（PM_2.5）实时监测数据,重点比较分析了建筑结构对室内外ρ（PM_2.5）关联特性的影响规律.此外,根据颗粒物穿透特性及沉降特性机理,提出了反映建筑外窗缝隙结构（如缝高、缝深）的无量纲特征参数A_P与反映房间建筑结构（如层高、开间、进深）的无量纲特征参数A_k.在前期提出的室内ρ（PM_2.5）预测模型基础上,进一步构建了二者（A_P与A_k）对室内ρ（PM_2.5）影响的评价模型,并通过实测数据验证了模型的正确性.结果表明:当室外PM_2.5污染程度与气象条件一定时,建筑结构对I/O[室内外ρ（PM_2.5）之比]影响较大,其范围在0.4~0.7之间;随着建筑外窗气密性等级的提高,对应室内ρ（PM_2.5）呈显著的下降趋势.建筑外窗缝隙结构对室内ρ（PM_2.5）影响程度远大于房间建筑结构,敏感性分析结果表明,当建筑外窗缝高每降低50%或缝深每提高50%,对应室内ρ（PM_2.5）约可下降33.6%与31.9%.研究显示,气密性等级较高的建筑外窗缝隙缝高往往较小、缝深较长,渗透通风条件下对控制室内ρ（PM_2.5）水平作用更显著。      

基于分形理论的矿区生态系统稳定性评价

引入非线性理论对矿区生态系统的稳定性进行研究.通过相空间重构的方法确定各混沌吸引子的关联维数,对矿区生态系统的稳定性进行评价.研究表明:焦作矿区矿产资源保有指数、矿产资源回收指数和矿产资源综合利用指数3个指标的分维值都较小,说明自然资源支持度的脆弱性是造成矿区生态系统不稳定性的主要原因.     

阳离子型聚合物对低温低浊水的絮凝效果与形态学特性

采用微絮凝-深床直接过滤工艺,以西安市曲江水厂低温低浊水质为原水(水温低于10 ℃,初始浊度低于10NTU),投加阳离子型聚合物(简称CP)作主混凝剂或助凝剂,借助分形数学理论与图像分析技术,对滤料粒径、原水浊度、原水温度、药剂种类、聚合物分子量及投加量、混合强度等因素对处理效果的影响进行了研究,分析探讨了不同药剂处理低温低浊水的作用机理、絮凝形态学特征以及絮体结构的分形特性.结果表明,①当温度低于4 ℃、初始浊度小于4NTU时,不宜单独采用Al2(SO4)3或PAC作为絮凝剂;当温度为4～10 ℃、初始浊度小于10NTU时,如果只投加Al2(SO4)3或PAC作为絮凝剂,宜用细砂滤料过滤;低温低浊条件下,无机混凝剂形成的絮体粒径小、结构松散脆弱、有效质量密度低、沉速慢,但表征絮体分形特性的分维值较高.②CP作絮凝剂能显著改善低温低浊水的絮凝效果与过滤性能,但混合强度需增大,宜用粗砂滤料过滤;③单独用CP作絮凝剂时,宜投加分子量较低的弱阳性聚合物或投加低剂量较高分子量的强阳性聚合物;CP用作助凝剂时,能显著减少主混凝剂用量,但宜投加强阳性聚合物或增加弱阳性聚合物的剂量.④CP兼备电性中和与吸附架桥絮凝作用,能形成粒径较大、吸附性能与过滤性能良好的网状絮体构型,其有效质量密度高,产生的污泥量少,污泥沉降速度快,脱水效果好,但分维值低.⑤各种水处理药剂的处理效果为:Al2(SO4)3(或PAC) CP＞CP＞PAC＞Al2(SO4)3,这种差别由絮体的形态学特性与构型特征各异引起.     

典型工业半焦的孔隙分形结构分析

工业半焦是一种具有复杂的微观孔隙拓扑结构的多孔物质.基于分形理论,引入分形维数对工业半焦不规则孔隙结构的粗糙、复杂程度进行了定量表征和描述.选取具有典型煤种和工艺代表性的工业半焦样品,用孔隙度分析仪对其孔隙结构特征进行了测量,并利用其测量数据进行了分形维数的分析计算.计算结果表明,工业半焦的孔隙结构符合分形特征,在样品颗粒尺寸为2.36～3.35mm的测量条件下,样品的分形维数在2.7982～2.9154之间,其可决系数在0.9157～0.9614之间;样品的分形维数与煤种和半焦热解工艺过程均有一定的关系.通过对工业半焦分形维数的计算分析,可以更加全面准确地了解其孔隙结构特征,以期为分析评价其吸附和活化潜力、制定恰当的活化工艺提供更加可靠的依据.     

砒砂岩区不同留茬高度及坡向下沙棘根系分形特征

为提高内蒙古砒砂岩区沙棘(Hippophae rhamnoides)人工林根系的生长能力,对东(E)、南(S)、西(W)、北(N)不同坡向沙棘植株进行了距地表0、10、15、20 cm(即a、b、c、d)留茬高度处理,而根系分形特征是植物根系构型应对环境异质性的表型可塑性,为反映沙棘根系对不同坡向不同留茬生长环境的适应...     

基于非线性技术锅炉故障分析*

为预测和判断锅炉故障的发生,完善锅炉故障检测技术,基于锅炉运转具有非线性特点,提出将非线性评价指标应用于锅炉故障诊断。研究特征信号的非线性特性,通过确定延迟时间和嵌入维数来重构相空间;采用混沌分形理论研究非线性评价指标;提取最大Lyapunov指数和关联维数,并为收集的每种特征信号选择最合适的非线性指标。结果表明:蒸汽压力的非线性特征指标应选择关联维数,烟气温度1、烟气温度2、水管温度1和水管温度2的非线性特征指标应当选择最大Lyapunov指数。