Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Study on the Balance of Agricultural Water and Land Resources on Ningxia Plain

The article puts forward the process and means of regional water and land balance research, and then from two scenarios which are the balances under natural regulation and human intervention, calculated and analysed the balance between water and land on Ningxia Plain. For the balance under natural regulation named farmland water balance, using farmland water resource balance equation, the research estimated the monthly farmland＂ water balance of 8 major crops for all of the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain in the period of 1960-2001; for the balance under human intervention, the research estimated land-use water balance equation of the counties in 2000, and calculated the balance between land use and water resources including irrigating water of all the 12 counties on Ningxia Plain. Results showed that ①precipitation can not meet the water demand of the crops for growth and development on Ningxia Plain, and water shortage is the primary character of farmland water balance under natural regulation. ②the diversity of water and land balance of different counties is distinctly influenced by the crop structure, water quantity for irrigation and irrigation level. ③Irrigation water could meet the crop water demand on Ningxia Plain in 2000, but there was not much space to expand irrigating cultivated land.     

湖泊水质模型研究进展

湖泊是最重要的淡水资源之一，对社会和经济的发展起着不可估量的作用。保护和改善湖泊水环境问题已成为当前世界关注的一个焦点。湖泊水质模型是一种利用数学语言来描述湖泊污染过程中的物理、化学、生物化学及生物生态各方面之内在规律和相互联系的手段。作为湖泊水环境污染治理、规划决策分析中的一个重要工具，它可以为湖泊的综合整治和科学管理提供科学的依据，在环境保护领域中发挥着举足轻重的作用。分别介绍了湖泊水质模型国内外研究动态、类型、常用软件（WASP、EFDC、CE QUAL W2、CE QUAL R1、CE QUAL ICM、MIKE、SMS等）和应用实例，并综观湖泊水质模型的研究历史和应用前景，系统分析了湖泊水质模型研究的发展趋势。     

北方湖库沉积物重金属区域特征及生态风险评价

以白洋淀、衡水湖、于桥水库、松花湖、大伙房水库和小兴凯湖沉积作为研究对象,通过对北方六湖库沉积物中Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni等重金属元素进行分析,并与国内外其他水域重金属污染情况进行多因素比较,探讨了六湖库主要重金属污染源的差异性,区域分布特征以及与国内外其他水域污染的相似性和区别.结果表明,六湖库沉积物重金属污染处于中等偏下水平.六湖库之间主要重金属污染源存在差别.沉积物重金属含量未出现明显上升的趋势.其中Zn、Pb存在富集现象,但Pb含量与历史数据相比出现下降,Zn的含量与其他地区相比整体偏高.大伙房水库沉积物重金属污染较重,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni含量平均值分别为56.28,142.3,17.44,97.9,44.44mg/kg.小兴凯湖沉积物重金属含量最低,Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni含量平均值分别为2.41,63.90,13.37,56.36,26.09mg/kg.六湖库综合风险评价结果为大伙房水库>于桥水库>白洋淀>衡水湖>松花湖>小兴凯湖,重金属整体潜在生态风险指数为低.     

平原农区村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿——以江苏省淮安市为例

选择地处苏北平原农区的淮安市所有15510个自然村和872414户农户全样本入户调查数据为分析对象,采用占比统计法和GIS空间分析,对村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿进行研究。主要结论如下：（1）在村落层面,平均规模小,单村独户多且村落分散,多数自然村远离镇区,近一半自然村位居“九靠近一滞洪”区域内。该格局是自然地理条件和人文因素综合影响形成的。（2）在住房层面,农村老旧住房比例高,全市40%农户在城乡同时拥有住房,但在城镇拥有住房率与到城区距离呈负相关,而农村住房空关率则呈现相反的空间格局。（3）在迁居意愿方面,54.1%的农户愿意集中居住且多意向实物安置,较低补偿标准和不便务农是不愿迁居的主要原因;移居城镇是货币安置农户的主要去向,留村和入镇集中居住是实物安置农户的主要去向。在迁居意向农户中,近90%选择政府统建方式,近80%愿意有偿退出宅基地和流转承包地。（4）村民居住空间特征和迁居意愿都存在明显的空间差异,两者之间存有内在联系且均受多种因素影响。     

中国淡水生态系统甲烷排放基本特征及研究进展

本文基于中国境内的湖泊、水库、河流等淡水系统CH₄排放研究的相关成果,对203个湖泊（595个样点）、46个水库（221个样点）、112条河流（441个样点）,总计1257个样点的CH₄通量数据进行统计分析,探讨了中国淡水系统（湖泊、水库、河流）CH₄排放的一般特征,总结了当前研究进展,并进一步估算和评估了中国淡水系统CH₄排放总量水平.结果表明：1）中国湖泊CH₄排放通量平均为（1.17±1.87） mg/（m²·h）,蒙新湖区（（3.84±0.57） mg/（m²·h））和东北湖区（（2.62±3.54） mg/（m²·h））较高,青藏湖区（（1.94±4.13） mg/（m²·h））次之,东部湖区（（0.81±0.90） mg/（m²·h））较低,云贵湖区（（0.19±0.26） mg/（m²·h））最低;湖泊CH₄排放通量呈显著的纬度模式,高纬度地区湖泊CH₄排放高于低纬度地区;2）水库CH₄排放通量（（1.25±1.78） mg/（m²·h））与湖泊相似,水库消落带较高的排放通量（（4.34±4.45）mg/（m²·h））对水库CH₄排放具有重要贡献;3）河流CH₄排放（（0.82±1.14） mg/（m²·h））略低于湖库,长江水系CH₄排放通量（（0.98±2.38） mg/（m²·h））和黄河水系（（0.85±0.75） mg/（m²·h））相近,高于海河水系（（0.54±0.93） mg/（m²·h））,辽河、珠江水系研究较少,数据变异性极大;4）受降水、温度、径流稀释等影响,淡水系统CH₄排放呈显著的季节变化,其中湖库排放夏季高于秋季,冬春季较低,而河流则春秋季高于夏冬季;5）基于外推法估算全国湖泊、水库、河流CH₄排放总量分别约为0.96,0.29,0.76Tg/a,相当于全国湿地系统排放的75%.由于较大的时空变异性以及监测数据分布的不均匀性,目前估算存在较大的不确定性,但淡水系统CH₄排放在全球气候变化中的贡献仍不容小觑.     

秸秆还田方式对东北农田土壤NH3挥发和N2O排放的影响

秸秆还田是有效利用资源、增加土壤有机质含量和培肥地力的有效措施,但也会影响土壤NH₃挥发和N₂O的排放.探索不同秸秆还田方式对NH₃挥发和N₂O排放的影响对于减少土壤氮素损失和保护生态环境具有重要意义.采用田间小区试验,利用Los Gatos Research（LGR）超便携NH₃分析仪和密闭式静态箱-气相色谱法探究不同秸秆还田方式下土壤NH₃挥发和N₂O排放的特征,试验设4个处理（覆盖还田,即表面覆盖玉米秸秆,0~20和20~40 cm土壤分层扰动后填回,记为JG0-0;常规还田,即秸秆与0~20 cm土壤混合,20~40 cm土壤扰动后填回,记为JG0-20;深还田,秸秆与20~40 cm土壤混合,0~20 cm土壤挖出后填回,记为JG20-40;对照处理,即无玉米秸秆还田,0~20和20~40 cm土壤分层扰动后填回,记为CK）.结果表明:①相比于CK,不同秸秆还田方式均显著降低了土壤NH₃挥发量,增加了土壤N₂O排放量.与CK相比,JG0-0、JG0-20和JG20-40处理下土壤NH₃累积排放量分别减少了12.38%、9.87%和5.73%;土壤N₂O累积排放量分别增加了30.19%、82.82%和36.53%,其中JG0-0和JG20-40处理之间无显著性差异.②JG20-40处理下玉米产量显著高于其他处理,比CK增加了23.15%,JG0-0处理下玉米产量高于CK和JG0-20处理,但并未达到显著水平.③对于NH₃和N₂O这两种气体的总累积排放量,各处理间均达到显著性差异.与CK相比,JG0-0、JG0-20和JG20-40处理下NH₃和N₂O总累积排放量分别增加了16.67%、52.08%和22.92%.④不同秸秆还田方式下的氮素气态损失率均高于CK,JG0-0、JG0-20和JG20-40处理下氮素气态损失率分别比CK增加了17.50%、52.50%和22.50%.因此,综合考虑土壤NH₃挥发量、N₂O排放量和玉米产量等因素,JG0-0处理优于JG20-40、JG0-20处理.      

Cumulative impact assessment in environmental planning: A coastal wetland watershed example

Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.