海洋油田水下集输-立管内两相流冲击力预测模型

目的分析两相流引起的冲击力与管道固有频率的流固耦合特性。方法针对海洋油田水下集输-立管系统内严重段塞流这一不稳定流动,通过构建气液两相流固耦合预测模型,分析管内段塞频率、管外涡街频率等流动特性与管道固有频率的关系,获取严重段塞流不同阶段对管道的冲击力特性。结果在水平方向上,管道所受冲击力最大部位为水平管与下倾管连接处,约为703.3 N;在垂直方向上,管道所受冲击力最大部位为下倾管底部与立管连接处,约为-993.5 N。管道所受冲击力与管内两相流引发的压力波动存在明显的一致性,在液塞喷发阶段,会引起整个管道冲击力的剧增。结论严重段塞流同一周期内,不同流动阶段所引发的管道振动特性不同,且不可忽视,在实际海管设计及使用过程中,需要结合管道运行工况对海管振动特性进行综合评估。     

北京市大气重污染过程中AQI的时空扩散特征及其预测模型

通过对北京市大气重度污染时段AQI与气象因子分析,探讨AQI的时间和空间变化特征,并建立了AQI的空间预测模型。结果表明:1)风速>2.5 m/s,且持续时间长(超过5 h)时,AQI曲线特征呈现倒"V"型。若其在1.7 m/s中部>北部,4 d后则中部>南部>北部。3)各方向上中部和北部的AQI预测模型中幂函数模型精度最高,且两者受西南方向的影响最大。     

2013年京津冀重污染特征及其气象条件分析

2013年中国东部地区多次发生持续的重霾污染事件.为探究其气象条件与重污染事件的关系,本文使用欧洲中心2013年东亚地区的逐日气象数据和北京、天津、石家庄的逐时PM_2.5浓度数据以及2013年MICAPS观测数据,分析了重污染事件对应的天气形势,并使用NAQMPS针对2013年1月的重污染事件进行情景模拟.研究结果表明：1北京、天津和石家庄地区PM_2.5浓度,夏秋季节日变化不显著,秋冬季节白天低夜间高;3地PM_2.5浓度均表现为12-1月浓度最高,7月最低;.2500 hPa平直西风气流,850 hPa弱暖平流,地面处于弱高压后部或高压底部高低空配置下的天气系统,对应着重污染事件的高发期;3源强不变的情况下,京津冀地区由弱高压前部控制转为弱高压控制时,地面温度升高0~5℃,相对湿度增加30%~50%,风速下降2~3 m·s^-1,PM_2.5浓度变化可达300 μg·m^-3.     

Antioxidant responses to benzo[a]pyrene, tributyltin and their mixture in the spleen of Sebasticus marmoratus

It has been reported that there is an interaction between Benzo[a]pyrene （BaP）, a widespread carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon, and tributyltin （TBT）, an organometal used as an antifouling biocide. This study was therefore designed to examine the potential in vivo influence of BaP, TBT and their mixture on splenic antioxidant defense systems of Sebastiscus marmoratus. The fish were exposed to water containing environmentally relevant concentrations of BaP, TBT and their mixture. Spleens were collected for biochemical analysis after exposure for 7, 25, 50 d and after recovery for 7, 20 d. Cotreatment with BaP and TBT for 7 d potentiated the induction of glutathione peroxidase （GPx） activity by BaP or TBT alone. The cotreatment for 25 and 50 d resulted in inhibition of GPx activity, which was similar to the effect of TBT. Splenic glutathione S-transferase （GST） activities were significantly elevated in S. marmoratus exposed to BaP starting from 7 d and remained high up to 25 d. However, no further activity change was found with prolonged exposure. Cotreatment of BaP and TBT primarily inhibited the GST activity, which was similar to the effect of TBT. Cotreatment with BaP and TBT for 25 or 50 d potentiated the depletion of GSH （glutathione） by BaP or TBT alone. MDA （malondialdehyde） contents in spleen of S. marmoratus were not significantly altered compared with the control during the test period. Spleen, as an immune organ, is sensitive to exposure of BaP or TBT. It should have an effective mechanism to counteract oxidative damage. Antioxidative defense systems in spleen of S. marmoratus should be considered as potential biomarkers. Short-term exposure of BaP or TBT could result in induction of antioxidant defense system. A significant decrease of these indices, such as GSH, GST, GPx might indicate more severe contamination.     

呼和浩特强对流天气的数值模拟分析

利用三维积云数值模式模拟了呼和浩特地区强对流天气的发展过程，并结合实时雷达回波资料进行了对比分析，指出模式输出的部分物理量与理论值、雷达回波或地面天气及降雹（水）实况符合得较好。从对模式输出的几个物理量的统计分析，得出利用三维积云数值模式预测强冰雹过程的概念模型。结果表明，三维积云数值模式能用于模拟对流云特别是强对流云的发展过程，可在人工影响天气业务工作中应用并不断发展。     

Geochemistry of a septic-system plume in a coastal barrier bar, Point Pelee, Ontario, Canada

The major ion and trace metal geochemistry of a septic system plume in a shallow sand aquifer was characterized to assess geochemical processes controlling the transport of nutrients and their release to a nearby wetland. The plume was generated from a 16-year-old tile bed, and is more than 60 m long, 40 m wide and 7 m thick. The groundwater pH at the site is near neutral, but up to 0.4 units lower in the plume core as a result of H⁺ generated from NH₃ and DOC oxidation in the unsaturated zone. The plume can be divided into distinct redox zones, which show differences in nutrient mobility. Proximal to the tile bed, there is a shallow suboxic zone, with intermediate Eh values (>400 mV), low concentrations of dissolved oxygen (<1.0 mg/l), and elevated concentrations of Mn (1–3 mg/l) and nutrients (10–80 mg/l NO₃–N, 1–15 mg/l NH₃–N, 0.1–1.5 mg/l PO₄–P, 6–13 mg/l dissolved organic carbon). At the base of the aquifer, there is a reduced zone (Eh<200 mV) with elevated concentrations of Fe (1–14 mg/l), PO₄ and NH₃, but negligible concentrations of NO₃ (<0.01 mg/l N). Distal from the tile bed, the shallow groundwater is suboxic to oxic, and has elevated concentrations of NO₃ and NH_3, but negligible PO₄. In the lower reduced zone, elevated concentrations of PO₄ occur up to 60 m away. The release of groundwater containing even very low concentrations of PO₄ (<0.02 mg/l P) can lead to the development of eutrophic conditions in surface water bodies. Geochemical calculations indicate that, in the Mn-rich zone, the groundwater is close to saturation or supersaturated with respect to hydroxyapatite, rhodochrosite, calcite and ferrihydrite. In the reduced zone, the groundwater is close to saturation or supersaturated with respect to hydroxyapatite, vivianite, calcite and siderite. Formation of these phases, or related phases, are likely limiting the concentrations of dissolved PO₄, Fe and Mn and controlling the geochemical evolution of the plume.     

Three-dimensional patterns of moisture, water repellency, bromide and pH in a sandy soil

Soil water repellency might lead to preferential flow of water and solutes through the unsaturated zone of soils. To study this process in a water repellent sandy field soil, a bromide tracer had been applied on a 2.2 m long and 0.4 m wide plot. The bromide application rate was 8 g/m², and the plot was sampled using 100 cm³ steel cylinders after 52 mm of rainfall in 12 days. A total of seven layers were sampled to a depth of 74 cm. Each layer was sampled at 240 locations in a 40 by 6 grid. All samples were used for the determination of soil water content, degree of actual and potential water repellency, bromide concentration and pH. The spatial distribution of these properties was visualized three-dimensionally and compared. The degree of water repellency, bromide concentration, and pH distribution bore close resemblance to the fingered flow induced soil water content distribution. The degree of potential water repellency was relatively low in places with such fingers. Actual water repellency occurred between the fingers at the dry spots. Bromide was not found, or only in very low concentrations, in such places. Bromide depth profiles clearly indicated the occurrence of diverging flow in the wetter subsoil. Most likely, manuring activities during the last decades resulted in relatively high pH values in the topsoil, and in the subsoil along the recurring fingered flow pathways.     

Hydrological and geochemical factors affecting leachate composition in municipal solid waste incinerator bottom ash: Part I: The hydrology of Landfill Lostorf, Switzerland

The objective of the investigation of the municipal solid waste incinerator (MSWI) bottom ash landfill, Landfill Lostorf, was to determine the residence time of water in the landfill and the flow paths through the landfill. Over a period of 22 months, measurements of rainfall, landfill discharge and leachate electrical conductivity were recorded and tracer experiments made. Over the yearly period 1995, approximately 50% of the incident rainfall was measured in the discharge. An analysis of single rain events showed that in winter, 90–100% of rainfall was expressed in the landfill discharge, whereas in summer months, the value was between 9 and 40% depending on the intensity of the rain event. The response to rainfall was rapid. Within 30–100 h, approximately 50% of water discharged in response to a rain event had left the landfill. The discharge was less than 4 l/min for approximately 50% of the measurement periods. Qualitative tracer studies with fluorescein, pyranine and iodide clearly showed the existence of preferential flow paths. This was further substantiated by quantitative tracer studies of single rain events using / ratios and electrical conductivity measurements. The proportion of rainwater passing directly through the landfill was found to be between 20 and 80% in summer months and around 10% in winter months. The difference has been ascribed to the water content in the landfill. The average residence time of the water within the landfill has been estimated to be roughly 3 years and this water is the predominant component in the discharge over a yearly period.     

An Adaptive‐Management Framework for Optimal Control of Hiking Near Golden Eagle Nests in Denali National Park

Abstract: Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive‐management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.     

北京市空气质量时间变化特点分析

本文以北京市为例,对北京市2000—2004年的空气质量日报（包括首要污染物,污染指数,空气质量级别以及空气质量状况等）进行分析研究,得出其年变化和月变化的特征以及中重度污染日的分布特征,结果表明,从2000年到2004年中,北京市2001年和2002年的污染颇为严重,其平均的污染指数为113和112。北京市一年中,冬季污染较为严重,尤其是12和1月两个月份,这与北京市的能源结构是密切相关的。2001年是中重度污染日最多的年份,为23天;中重度污染日持续天数最多的是8天,是在2002年4月份;中重度污染多发生在3月份、4月份以及11月份,北京市的首要污染物是可吸入颗粒物。