Rapid humanitarian assessments and rationality: a value-of-information study from Iraq, 2003-04

Rapid assessments are one of the standard informational tools in humanitarian response and are supposed to contribute to rational decision-making.(1) The extent to which the assessment organisation itself behaves rationally, however, is an open question. This can be evaluated against multiple criteria, such as the cost and value of the information it collects and its ability to adapt flexibly design or samples when the survey environment changes unforeseeably. An unusual data constellation from two concurrent recent (2003-04) rapid assessments in northern Iraq permits us to model part of the actual assessment behaviour in terms of geographical, community and prior substantive information attributes. The model correctly predicts the decisions, in 79 per cent of the 2,425 local communities in focus, that data collector teams in the Emergency Mine Action Survey made to visit or not to visit. The analysis demonstrates variably rational behaviour under conditions of insecurity, repeated regrouping and incomplete sampling frames. A pronounced bias towards very small rural settlements is irrational for the overall results, but may be a rational strategy of individual survey workers seeking to prolong their employment. Implications for future assessments are sketched in the areas of tools for urban surveys, greater adaptability, including early feedback from users, and sensibility to value-of-information concepts.     

Water Appropriation Systems for Adapting to Water Shortages in Iraq

Climate variability and population growth have intensified the search internationally for measures to adapt to fluctuations in water supplies. An example can be found in the lower part of the transboundary Tigris‐Euphrates Basin where water shortages in 2008‐2009 resulted in high economic costs to irrigation farmers. Losses to irrigators in the lower basin have made a compelling case to identify flexible methods to adapt to water shortage. Few published studies have systematically examined ways to enhance the flexibility of water appropriation systems to adapt to water shortage. This article addresses an ongoing challenge in water governance by examining how profitability at both the farm and basin levels is affected by various water appropriation systems. Four water appropriation systems are compared for impacts on farm income under each of three water supply scenarios. Results show that a (1) proportional sharing of water shortages among provinces and (2) unrestricted water trading rank as the top two appropriation systems. The shadow price of water for irrigation rises from zero at a full water supply level to US$93/1,000 m³ when supply falls to 20% of full levels. Similar methods could be used to analyze challenges facing the design or implementation of water appropriation systems in the world's irrigated regions.     

Civilians under fire: evacuation behaviour in north Israel during the Second Lebanon War

This paper seeks to understand evacuation behaviour in a case of spontaneous evacuation. During the Second Lebanon War of 2006, more than one‐third of residents in north Israel spontaneously evacuated—the remainder stayed in situ. Using a telephone survey of 665 respondents residing in north Israel, we were able to characterise the behaviour of evacuees and non‐evacuees. The main reasons cited for evacuating were fear of injury to self or family, the effect on children, inability to remain in a protective space, and family pressure. The main reasons cited for remaining at home were no suitable alternative, did not perceive a high level of danger, had to go to work, and there is no place like home. There were no significant differences with regard to most socio‐demographic characteristics of the population. These findings should aid emergency managers in preparing the population for a future emergency and in engaging in effective dialogue with the population during an emergency on the evacuation option.     

Gulf War agents trigger discrete transcriptional changes in human neuronal cells

Reports on Gulf War illness (GWI) implicated the use of the pesticide permethrin (PER), and the insect repellent N,N-diethyl-m-toluamide (DEET), in its etiology, as well as pyridostigmine bromide (PB), which was given as a prophylactic treatment against nerve agent exposure. Using Affymetrix microarrays the genomic response of human neuronal SHSY-5Y cells to 10 days of exposure to these agents was characterized and profiles of gene modulation unique to each treatment were demonstrated. In particular, a significantly greater impact of PER was observed compared to the other treatments. The Ingenuity Pathway Analysis knowledgebase was used to analyze the genomic datasets and attribute functional consequences to the effects of related genes, which were significantly up- or down-regulated in response to different treatments. Canonical pathways shown to be significantly modulated at the genomic level in response to exposure included cellular mechanisms, which might contribute to the clinical presentation in GWI patients and thus be targeted for further investigation as potential targets for therapeutic intervention.     

HYDROLOGICAL,METEOROLOGICAL, AND AGRICULTURAL RELATIONS IN NORTHERN IRAQ1

ABSTRACT: The northern regions of Iraq, an area comprised of mountains and undulating plains, has for centuries been the main granary for the country. Its agricultural production is largely dependent upon natural rainfall which ranges from about 300 to 1,000 mm/yr. Grain yields can be greatly improved by use of improved varieties and management practices. Equations are developed to show relationships between various hydrologic and meteorologic parameters with yields of wheat and barley. The amount of supplementary water needed to maximize grain yields is also shown.     

Standardising and mapping open-source information for crisis regions: the case of post-conflict Iraq

Painting an accurate picture of the situation on the ground in countries in crisis is vital for the efficiency of humanitarian aid and reconstruction agencies. This study describes a method for standardising and mapping the plethora of open-source information. The test site for the study is post-conflict Iraq. Important information on aid distribution, reconstruction and security in Iraq can be derived from the reports of humanitarian aid agencies and the media, before being formatted, inserted into a database and mapped. The product is a visual, cartographic structure of otherwise random information, showing which organisations are working in the country, which thematic and geographic areas are being prioritized in the field, and which areas most frequently experience security events. This type of mapping not only highlights the overall working environment within different parts of the country, but it may also serve as a decision-making tool for donors and humanitarian aid agencies planning to deploy personnel.     

The future of humanitarian action: mapping the implications of Iraq and other recent crises

In late 2003 the Feinstein International Famine Center, in partnership with institutions in London, Geneva and Washington, organised a series of consultations on the future of humanitarian action post-Iraq. This article is based on those discussions. A number of recurring concerns are elaborated, ranging from the perception of humanitarianism as a Northern-driven and Northern-controlled enterprise, through the politicisation of security and the devaluation of the protective power of emblems, to the very nature of how the crisis in Iraq is perceived. The article explores the implications of such issues for humanitarian workers and their institutions. It concludes by framing an agenda for action by the humanitarian sector.     

Destuction and reconstruction: A Strategy for the war-damaged areas of Iran

This paper outlines the maln elements of a comprehenslve, self-reliant territorial reconstrouction strategy for the wardamaged areas of Iran by drawing from existing experinece including that of the Islamic Republic. After documenting that extent and type of damage, and argument is presented in favor of urgent action and the need for planning.
The relatinship beteeen the reconstruction strategy and national goals is particularly emphasled. National independence, defense and integration should guide the entire reconstruction process. Expanding defensive capacity of the border regions, territorial equalization of development, creation of an articulated system of reginal goverments, reduction of dependency on oil revenues, and adaption of a two-tier technology policy are identified as major factor in achieving these goals.
comprehensivenss and self-rellance are shown to be characteristics of planning for reconstruction for war destructions in contries where planning was applied, Similarly, reconstruction needs other types of organizations, particularly popular and co-ordinating ones.
Reconstruction requlres among other things that existing and potential resourecs be identified and it is argued that these must be moblilzed befor they can be utillized. Different resources are mobiliz3ed differently. Various methods of mobilization are identified for mobilizing human, material and financial resoucrs.     

Young fire ant workers feign death and survive aggressive neighbors

Feigning death is a method of self-defense employed among a wide range of prey species when threatened by predator species. This paper reports on death-feigning behavior by the fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, during intraspecific aggression among neighboring fire ant workers. Days-old workers responded to aggression by death feigning, weeks-old workers responded by fleeing and months-old workers responded by fighting back. By feigning death, days-old workers were four times more likely to survive aggression than older workers. From a proximate perspective, retaliation by young workers against aggressive older workers is certain to fail. With their relatively soft exoskeleton, young workers would be prone to injury and death and unable to execute an effective attack of biting or stinging older workers with harder exoskeletons. From an ultimate perspective, death feigning allows young workers to survive and contribute to brood care and colony growth, both of which are essential to queen survival and fitness.     

Environmental impact of the Gulf War: An integrated preliminary assessment

This article provides an objective integrated environmental impact assessment of the Gulf War consequences. The environmental damage was evaluated and found to be significantly exaggerated by the media and speculators. The total amount of burned crude oil was calculated to be 52.5 million metric tons. Most air pollution field measurements were comparable to those found in Western cities. The health impact associated with such exposure was found to be minimal. The total amount of oil released into the marine environment ranged between 2 and 4 million barrels, much less than the early estimation of 12–14 million barrels. The marine environment is expected to recover much faster than earlier anticipations. Unlike water and air, soil pollution is likely to persist for some years to come.