Analysis of the Trend and Seasonal Cycle of Carbon Monoxide Concentrations in an Urban Area (4 pp)

Background, Aim and Scope Air quality is an field of major concern in large cities. This problem has led administrations to introduce plans and regulations to reduce pollutant emissions. The analysis of variations in the concentration of pollutants is useful when evaluating the effectiveness of these plans. However, such an analysis cannot be undertaken using standard statistical techniques, due to the fact that concentrations of atmospheric pollutants often exhibit a lack of normality and are autocorrelated. On the other hand, if long-term trends of any pollutant’s emissions are to be detected, meteorological effects must be removed from the time series analysed, due to their strong masking effects. Materials and Methods The application of statistical methods to analyse temporal variations is illustrated using monthly carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations observed at an urban site. The sampling site is located at a street intersection in central Valencia (Spain) with a high traffic density. Valencia is the third largest city in Spain. It is a typical Mediterranean city in terms of its urban structure and climatology. The sampling site started operation in January 1994 and monitored CO ground level concentrations until February 2002. Its geographic coordinates are W0°22′52″ N39°28′05″ and its altitude is 11 m. Two nonparametric trend tests are applied. One of these is robust against serial correlation with regards to the false rejection rate, when observations have a strong persistence or when the sample size per month is small. A nonparametric analysis of the homogeneity of trends between seasons is also discussed. A multiple linear regression model is used with the transformed data, including the effect of meteorological variables. The method of generalized least squares is applied to estimate the model parameters to take into account the serial dependence of the residuals of this model. This study also assesses temporal changes using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. The KZ filter has been shown to be an effective way to remove the influence of meteorological conditions on O₃ and PM to examine underlying trends. Results The nonparametric tests indicate a decreasing, significant trend in the sampled site. The application of the linear model yields a significant decrease every twelve months of 15.8% for the average monthly CO concentration. The 95% confidence interval for the trend ranges from 13.9% to 17.7%. The seasonal cycle also provides significant results. There are no differences in trends throughout the months. The percentage of CO variance explained by the linear model is 90.3%. The KZ filter separates out long, short-term and seasonal variations in the CO series. The estimated, significant, long-term trend every year results in 10.3% with this method. The 95% confidence interval ranges from 8.8% to 11.9%. This approach explains 89.9% of the CO temporal variations. Discussion The differences between the linear model and KZ filter trend estimations are due to the fact that the KZ filter performs the analysis on the smoothed data rather than the original data. In the KZ filter trend estimation, the effect of meteorological conditions has been removed. The CO short-term componentis attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in emissions. There is a significant seasonal cycle. This component is a result of changes in the traffic, the yearly meteorological cycle and the interactions between these two factors. There are peaks during the autumn and winter months, which have more traffic density in the sampled site. There is a minimum during the month of August, reflecting the very low level of vehicle emissions which is a direct consequence of the holiday period. Conclusions The significant, decreasing trend implies to a certain extent that the urban environment in the area is improving. This trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and economics. It is also due to the effect of introducing reformulated gasoline. The additives enable vehicles to burn fuel with a higher air/fuel ratio, thereby lowering the emission of CO. The KZ filter has been the most effective method to separate the CO series components and to obtain an estimate of the long-term trend due to changes in emissions, removing the effect of meteorological conditions. Recommendations and Perspectives Air quality managers and policy-makers must understand the link between climate and pollutants to select optimal pollutant reduction strategies and avoid exceeding emission directives. This paper analyses eight years of ambient CO data at a site with a high traffic density, and provides results that are useful for decision-making. The assessment of long-term changes in air pollutants to evaluate reduction strategies has to be done while taking into account meteorological variability     

Seasonal variation and size distribution of biogenic secondary organic aerosols at urban and continental background sites of China

Size-resolved biogenic secondary organic aerosols(BSOA) derived from isoprene and monoterpene photooxidation in Qinghai Lake, Tibetan Plateau(a continental background site) and five cities of China were measured using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry(GC/MS). Concentrations of the determined BSOA are higher in the cities than in the background and are also higher in summer than in winter. Moreover, strong positive correlations(R2= 0.44–0.90) between BSOA and sulfate were found at the six sites,suggesting that anthropogenic pollution(i.e., sulfate) could enhance SOA formation,because sulfate provides a surface favorable for acid-catalyzed formation of BSOA. Size distribution measurements showed that most of the determined SOA tracers are enriched in the fine mode( 3.3 μm) except for cis-pinic and cis-pinonic acids, both presented a comparable mass in the fine and coarse( 3.3 μm) modes, respectively. Mass ratio of oxidation products derived from isoprene to those from monoterpene in the five urban regions during summer are much less than those in Qinghai Lake region. In addition, in the five urban regions relative abundances of monoterpene oxidation products to SOA are much higher than those of isoprene. Such phenomena suggest that BSOA derived from monoterpenes are more abundant than those from isoprene in Chinese urban areas.     

大气污染物影响因素的灰色关联分析

运用灰色系统理论，对产生和影响城市大气主要污染物的相关因素，利用灰色关联分析方法进行了量化分析研究，根据研究结果，提出了控制大气污染的防治对策．     

主成份分析法在大气环境质量综合评价中的应用

介绍了主成份分析法评价大气环境质量的基本原理，并对某市的大气环境质量进行了综合评价。最后，与其它方法的评价结果进行了对比分析，进一步证实了主成份分析法的科学性、合理性。     

有机气溶胶的来源与形成研究现状

介绍了有机气溶胶来源与形成的研究现状,从有机气溶胶的化学组成特征、一次有机气溶胶的来源和二次有机气溶胶的形成机制论述其研究进展.一次有机气溶胶主要来源于烹调油烟、机动车排放、生物质燃烧、工业或民用燃油锅炉释放出的有机物,还有道路扬尘、沥青、刹车尘、轮胎屑、室外香烟烟雾、以及高等植物蜡、细菌活动和草本植物等.大气中的半挥发性有机物可通过物理和化学吸附形成二次有机气溶胶,一些挥发性有机物可通过气相化学反应转化为低挥发性的物质并形成二次有机气溶胶,其主要前体物是芳香族化合物,如苯、甲苯、二甲苯,以及烯烃、烷烃、环烷烃、萜烯和生物排放的非饱和氧化物.     

大气污染综合整治规划软件在中小城镇的应用

本文阐述了大气污染综合整治规划软件在北票市的实际应用，以北票市大气污染综合整治为实例，建立了大气污染综合整治计算机处理系统，取得了满意的效果．     

重庆近11年大气混合层厚度研究

根据新闻颁国家标准ＧＢ／Ｔ１３２０１－９１的规定，计算了重庆地区近１１年大气混合厚度，分析结果表明，重庆地区大气混合层厚度有明显日变化和季节变化，大气稳定度是混合层厚度的主要决定因子。     

上海市大气中NMHC,NOx,O3和SO2变化规律

通过对上海市大气中光化学主要污染物如ＮＭＨＣ、ＮＯｘ、Ｏ３及ＳＯ２等的日变化监测，发现ＮＯｘ、Ｏ３的日浓度变化与气象条件密切相关，高浓度Ｏ３多出现在晴朗少云，气温较高的大气条件下同步监测发现，Ｏ３与ＮＯｘ呈负相关，相关系数ｒ＝－０．７８５；ｄｍｊ ＳＯ２ｇｎ ＮＭＨＣｅ ｔｖｅ ｖｂ ｒ ｇｈｄ ｓｈ ｕｄ ，ｓｈ ｕｄ ｔｘｉ ｏｖｔ ｒ＝     

大气环境影响评价的不确定性分析

就我国大气环境影响评价目前存在的问题进行了阐述，提出了应当正确引导和规范大气环境影响评价，发展“标准化”的计算方法和评价方法，使影响预测结果具有代表性的可比性。     

呼和浩特市大气中酞酸酯的初步研究

通过对呼和浩特市不同功能区和不同季度的大气中酞酸酯污染物的采样监测调查，证实了酞酯不仅存在于大气中，且浓度比较高，为５３１ｎｇ／ｍ＾３，是草原地区背景值（１０－３３ｎｇ／ｍ＾３）的１６倍以上。根据调查表明，不同功能区中大气中酞酸酯（ＤＮＢＰ和ＤＥＨＰ）的浓度差异较大；相同功能区的不同季节，酞酸酯浓度也存在较大差异，但酞酸酯浓度与大气颗粒物呈现出良好的相关性，冬、夏季的相关系数分别为０．９７１和０．