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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level
rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most
important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives
of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential
sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis
allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds:
‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional
storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output
maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six
scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with
return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the
major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies
in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change. 相似文献
3.
Riebsame WE 《Disasters》1985,9(4):295-300
Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored. 相似文献
4.
Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):843-853
Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered
separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy
between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy
between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted
under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the
potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples.
Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems
and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability.
Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity
conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil
and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need
for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate
change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased. 相似文献
5.
气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容,以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的4 次缔约方会议的结果; 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制(CDM) 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同,以及CDM 的特点、方法学与技术问题; 第三部分分析了CDM 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给;最后就CDM 的实施作了展望。 相似文献
6.
7.
8.
Scott Murtishaw Jayant Sathaye Christina Galitsky Kristel Dorion 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2006,11(3):645-665
The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA)
conducted technical studies and organized two training workshops to develop capacity in Central America for the evaluation
of climate change projects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studies conducted for these workshops, one
for the power sector and one for the cement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches to baseline setting.
Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for the main Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. In recent
years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth; thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to
estimate viable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additional baseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh
(using a weighted average stringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency), while the baseline for plants
offsetting load-following capacity is lower at 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-following plants, the
rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age of some plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of
their use. The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanism yields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh.
Due to the relatively small number of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of the cement market, all of Central
America was chosen as the geographic boundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actual operations and output
data were unobtainable for most of the plants in the region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs ranged from
205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement. 相似文献
9.
Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives
To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches. 相似文献
10.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS IN NORTHERN CANADA: INTEGRATING INDIGENOUS PERSPECTIVES WITH GOVERNMENT POLICY 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
John?NewtonEmail author C.?D.?James?Paci Aynslie?Ogden 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2005,10(3):541-571
A study of the relationship between natural hazards and climate change in the international context provides the background
for a discussion of the expected changes. In the context of this global discussion, this paper reviews the current perspectives
of those natural hazards that are likely to be influenced by climate change, using northern Canada as a regional case study.
The northern implications of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change are examined, including the status
of climate change action by the northern territorial governments, the evolving role of indigenous people, and the responsibility
for climate change impacts. The difficulties surrounding natural hazards research in remote locations, and the approaches
of indigenous people to natural hazards are then presented. The paper concludes with a suggested policy approach for climate
change and natural hazards in northern Canada, underscoring the need for more comprehensive adaptive strategies to complement
the current tendency to focus on the mitigation of greenhouse gases produced in this region. 相似文献