Weak indirect effects inherent to nitrogen biogeochemical cycling within anthropogenic ecosystems: A network environ analysis

Indirect effects are assumed to be the major causes of the complexity and stability of ecological networks. The complexity of urban-rural complexes (URCs) could also be attributed to the indirect effects associated with human activities. No studies, however, have quantified the strength of indirect effects in relation to urban biogeochemistry. A network environ analysis (NEA) was used for this study to investigate and compare indirect effects in relation to the nitrogen (N) cycling networks of 22 natural ecosystems and five URCs. Results show that indirect effects were proven to be weak for URC N cycling networks (accounting for only ∼2% of the overall effects measured in natural ecosystems). The weak indirect effects found provide a counterexample for the hypothesis that indirect effects are in fact the dominant components of biogeochemical networks. It also implies that human activity in itself does not always raise the complexity of ecological processes as previously suggested. Weak indirect effects also lead to perturbation fragility for URC N cycles (where the decay rate is greater in comparison to natural ecosystems by a factor of 13). In order to improve the robustness and efficiency of URC biogeochemical cycling, a knockout analysis was carried out. By comparing results after removing single interactions between natural ecosystems and URCs it was found that the loss of indirect effects require cooperative strategies to optimize N cycling networks within URCs.     

Diffusion of innovative agricultural production systems for sustainable development of small islands: A methodological approach based on the science of complexity

In order to develop small islands, not only must a vital agricultural system be maintained, but the range of opportunities for tourism must be increased with respect to both the seaside and the environmental features of the rural landscape. As an alternative to the traditional and economically declining ones, many innovative production processes can be identified, but their success depends on their interaction with the physical, biological, economic and social environment. In order to identify the main nodes and the most critical interactions, so as to increase the probability of success of a new productive process, a methodological approach based on the science of complexity is proposed for the cultivation of capers (Capparis spinosa L.) on the island of Pantelleria. The methodology encompasses the identification of actors and factors involved. the quantitative evaluation of their interactions with the different stages of the productive process, and a quasiquantitative evaluation of the probability that the particular action will be performed successfully. The study of “traditional,” “modernized,” and “modernized-sustainable” processes, shows that the modernized-sustainable process offers mutually reinforcing opportunities in terms of an integrated development of high-quality agricultural products and the enhancement of environmental features, in conjunction with high-efficiency production techniques, in conjunction with high-efficiency production techniques, in a way that suits the development of Pantelleria. There is a high probability of failure, however, as a result of the large number of critical factors. Nevertheless, the present study indicates which activities will enhance the probability of successful innovation in the production process.     

Coping with Complexity,Uncertainty and Ambiguity in Risk Governance: A Synthesis

The term governance describes the multitude of actors and processes that lead to collectively binding decisions. The term risk governance translates the core principles of governance to the context of risk-related policy making. We aim to delineate some basic lessons from the insights of the other articles in this special issue for our understanding of risk governance. Risk governance provides a conceptual as well as normative basis for how to cope with uncertain, complex and/or ambiguous risks. We propose to synthesize the breadth of the articles in this special issue by suggesting some changes to the risk governance framework proposed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) and adding some insights to its analytical and normative implications.     

A systems perspective of managing error recovery and tactical re-planning of operating teams in safety critical domains

Introduction

Research in human error has provided useful tools for designing procedures, training, and intelligent interfaces that trap errors at an early stage. However, this “error prevention” policy may not be entirely successful because human errors will inevitably occur. This requires that the error management process (e.g., detection, diagnosis and correction) must also be supported. Research has focused almost exclusively on error detection; little is known about error recovery, especially in the context of safety critical systems. The aim of this paper is to develop a research framework that integrates error recovery strategies employed by experienced practitioners in handling their own errors.

Method and Results

A control theoretic model of human performance was used to integrate error recovery strategies assembled from reviews of the literature, analyses of near misses from aviation and command & control domains, and observations of abnormal situations training at air traffic control facilities. The method of system dynamics has been used to analyze and compare error recovery strategies in terms of patterns of interaction, system affordances, and types of recovery plans. System dynamics offer a promising basis for studying the nature of error recovery management in the context of team interactions and system characteristics.

Impact on industry

The proposed taxonomy of error recovery strategies can help human factors and safety experts to develop resilient system designs and training solutions for managing human errors in unforeseen situations; it may also help incident investigators to explore why people's actions and assessments were not corrected at the time.     

Measuring complexity in three-trophic level systems

This essay is a trial on measuring complexity in a three-trophic level system by using a convex function of the informational entropy. The complexity measure defined here is compatible with the fact that real complexity lies between ordered and disordered states. Applying this measure to the data collected for two three-trophic level systems some hints about their organization are obtained.     

Uncovering context-induced status quo effects in choice experiments

In this study five design dimensions are varied systematically investigating context-induced status quo effects in choice experiments. Additionally, two structural complexity measures, entropy and the number of attribute level changes, are used to capture status quo effects from the similarity between alternatives and the number of trade-offs. A crucial finding is that the frequency of status quo choices is negatively associated with the number of alternatives indicating preference matching effects. By contrast, the probability of choosing the status quo increases with a higher number of choice tasks, a wider level range, and the similarity between alternatives. Status quo choices are further affected by the current environmental situation perceived by respondents. We also find that marginal and non-marginal welfare estimates are significantly affected by the choice design. One key finding is that the most used choice task format in environmental economics, i.e., two hypothetical and a status quo alternative, is likely to increase the propensity to choose the status quo option.     

关于灾害系统的若干问题

本文简述了灾害系统的某些基本概念,提出了灾害学系统划分的基本原则,讨论了灾害系统的一些重要特征。指出灾害系统是一个非常复杂的大系统,它不仅是一个随着时间演化的开放系统,而且具有非线性、不确知性、不确定性和社会性。灾害系统的分析、综合和广义模型化是当前的重要课题。     

基于复杂性科学的区域环境研究方法和策略的探讨--以大徐州地区的环境问题研究为例

环境科学涉及到诸多领域，相关学科间的交叉、融合使环境科学研究日趋复杂，这种复杂性在大范围、长时间的环境研究中表现得尤为突出。对这类复杂的大区域的环境研究要从指导思想、研究方法、研究策略上进行改进，要从根本上寻求解决之道。笔者首先阐述了大区域环境研究的复杂性，探讨了研究的理论基础，最后以大徐州地区的环境问题为例，提出了研究策略。