Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

RESEARCH: Shrub Propagation Techniques for Biological Control of Invading Tree Species

Cornus stolonifera, Salix petiolaris, and Spiraea alba clones already located within the corridor of an electrical power line. To establish the efficiency of treatments, we examined the statistical differences of growth traits between species and treatments. An analysis of the effects of layering shows, after the first growth season, differences for all growth traits in only one species, Spiraea alba. After the second growth season, we observed the development of new aerial stems. Layering favors horizontal expansion of shrubs over height development. The third year after treatment, the effect of layering is reduced except for Cornus stolonifera, which continuously increases, as shown by the significant progression of the clone issued from the layer even five years after treatments. With the cutting back technique, we expected a distinct vertical growth of the shrubs at the expense of increasing the crown diameter. This technique would be best associated with the rejuvenation of clones, followed by a layering of new shoots to allow a horizontal expansion of the shrubs. Therefore, the formation of a dense shrub community by layering should be considered a valuable approach for the biological control of undesirable trees in powerline rights-of-way.     

Exploring Chemical Variables in Ligustrum lucidum Ait. F. Tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in Relation to Air Pollutants and Environmental Conditions

Ligustrum lucidum Ait. f. tricolor (Rehd.) Rehd. in relation to atmospheric pollutants in Córdoba city, Argentina. The study area receives regional pollutants and was categorized taking into account traffic level, industrial density, type of industry, location of the sample point in relation to the street corner, treeless condition, and topographic level. Dried weight/fresh weight ratio (DW/FW) and specific leaf area (SLA) were calculated, and concentrations of chlorophylls, carotenoids, total sulfur, soluble proteins, malondialdehyde (MDA), and hydroperoxy conjugated dienes (HPCD) were determined in leaf samples. Sulfur content correlates positively with traffic density and SLA correlates negatively with some combinations of the categorical variables; MDA correlates positively with topographic level and total protein concentration correlates negatively with treeless condition. On the basis of our results, traffic, location of trees, type of industry, situation of a tree with respect to others, and topographic level are the environmental variables to bear in mind when selecting analogous sampling points in a passive monitoring program. An approximation to predict tree injury may be obtained by measuring DW/FW ratio, proteins, pigments, HPCD, and MDA as they are responsible for the major variability of data.     

Dynamics and Causation of Environmental Equity, Locally Unwanted Land Uses, and Neighborhood Changes

/ Why are some environmental risks distributed disproportionately in the neighborhoods of the minorities and the poor? A hypothesis was proposed in a recent study that market dynamics contributed to the current environmental inequity. That is, locally unwanted land uses (LULUs) make the host communities home to more poor people and people of color. This hypothesis was allegedly supported by a Houston case study, whereby its author analyzed the postsiting changes of the socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhoods surrounding solid waste facilities. I argue that such an analysis of postsiting changes alone is insufficient to test the causation hypothesis. Instead, I propose a conceptual framework for analysis of environmental equity dynamics and causation. I suggest that the presiting neighborhood dynamics and the characteristics of control neighborhoods be analyzed as the first test for the causation hypothesis. Furthermore, I present theories of neighborhood change and then examine alternative hypotheses that these theories offer for explaining neighborhood changes and for the roles of LULUs in neighborhood changes. These alternative hypotheses should be examined when analyzing the relationship between LULUs and neighborhood changes in a metropolitan area. Using this framework of analysis, I revisited the Houston case. First, I found no evidence that provided support for the hypothesis that the presence of LULUs made the neighborhoods home to more blacks and poor people, contrary to the conclusion made by the previous study. Second, I examined alternative hypotheses for explaining neighborhood changes-invasion-succession, other push forces, and neighborhood life-cycle; the former two might offer better explanation.KEY WORDS: Environmental equity and justice; Locally unwanted lane uses; Siting; Market dynamics; Invasion-succession; Neighborhood changes     

Recent advances in catalytic decomposition of ozone

Ozone (O₃), as a harmful air pollutant, has been of wide concern. Safe, efficient, and economical O₃ removal methods urgently need to be developed. Catalytic decomposition is the most promising method for O₃ removal, especially at room temperature or even subzero temperatures. Great efforts have been made to develop high-efficiency catalysts for O₃ decomposition that can operate at low temperatures, high space velocity and high humidity. First, this review describes the general reaction mechanism of O₃ decomposition on noble metal and transition metal oxide catalysts. Then, progress on the O₃ decomposition performance of various catalysts in the past 30 years is summarized in detail. The main focus is the O₃ decomposition performance of manganese oxides, which are divided into supported manganese oxides and non-supported manganese oxides. Methods to improve the activity, stability, and humidity resistance of manganese oxide catalysts for O₃ decomposition are also summarized. The deactivation mechanisms of manganese oxides under dry and humid conditions are discussed. The O₃ decomposition performance of monolithic catalysts is also summarized from the perspective of industrial applications. Finally, the future development directions and prospects of O₃ catalytic decomposition technology are put forward.     

平原农区村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿——以江苏省淮安市为例

选择地处苏北平原农区的淮安市所有15510个自然村和872414户农户全样本入户调查数据为分析对象,采用占比统计法和GIS空间分析,对村民居住空间特征与迁居意愿进行研究。主要结论如下：（1）在村落层面,平均规模小,单村独户多且村落分散,多数自然村远离镇区,近一半自然村位居“九靠近一滞洪”区域内。该格局是自然地理条件和人文因素综合影响形成的。（2）在住房层面,农村老旧住房比例高,全市40%农户在城乡同时拥有住房,但在城镇拥有住房率与到城区距离呈负相关,而农村住房空关率则呈现相反的空间格局。（3）在迁居意愿方面,54.1%的农户愿意集中居住且多意向实物安置,较低补偿标准和不便务农是不愿迁居的主要原因;移居城镇是货币安置农户的主要去向,留村和入镇集中居住是实物安置农户的主要去向。在迁居意向农户中,近90%选择政府统建方式,近80%愿意有偿退出宅基地和流转承包地。（4）村民居住空间特征和迁居意愿都存在明显的空间差异,两者之间存有内在联系且均受多种因素影响。     

Cumulative impact assessment in environmental planning: A coastal wetland watershed example

Several theoretical, analytical, and institutional difficulties have impeded the development and application of the assessment of cumulative environmental impacts. Watershed development on coastal wetlands offers an ideal context for evaluating the land disturbance target approach to cumulative impact assessment. A model land use planning system involving a time series approach was developed for Elkhorn Slough in California. The approach included four major components: evaluation of erosion susceptibility, measurement of land disturbance, establishment of a land disturbance target, and a comparison of existing and target land disturbance values. Further research is needed to test the transferability of the approach in a wide range of coastal watersheds and to verify the applicability of the methods to other cumulative impact problems.     

From proposal to decision: Suggestions for tightening up the “NEPA process”

Although the process of documenting compliance with NEPA (the National Environmental Policy Act) requires no drastic revisions, it can be managed more rigorously. Suggestions for revision can be grouped under five major steps: 1) getting a complete proposal from the applicant; 2) getting the decision-making process onto the right decision-making path; 3) modifying the applicant's proposal 4) going down a shorter path through the EA/FONSI (environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact) or through categorical exclusion review; and 5) going down the longer path through the EIS. Step 2 is perhaps the most critical, because there a decision must be made whether to write an EA/FONSI or an EIS, on the basis of whether the proposal would “significantly affect … the … environment.” In the past, this decision has not always been made promptly or rigorously. Accordingly, we suggest that the agency responsible for NEPA compliance should develop a system (a “black box”), consisting of a core group of specialists working with an interdisciplinary team, using sophisticated techniques for modeling impacts and directing both their research and their writing according to the concept of significance. By determining more efficiently and reliably whether the impacts of a proposal would be significant, such an approach would improve management of the total process.     

南水北调东平湖水质变化趋势分析研究

采用了季节性肯达尔法水质趋势分析方法,分析了1984～2000年东平湖水质的变化情况,目前东平湖水质一般为Ⅴ类、Ⅵ类,个别年份为超Ⅴ类,氨氮平均值历年变化不大,一般均符合Ⅰ Ⅲ类水质,挥发酚和砷含量甚小,各年均符合Ⅰ类水。