Land User Participation in Developing a Computerised Decision Support System for Combating Desertification

Combating desertification in natural rangelands has recently become a priority in large parts of southern Africa. Rangeland managers, farmers, scientists, conservationists and land users have been applying a variety of restoration technologies to address this problem. Bush encroachment, as part of the desertification process, involves the natural replacement of the herbaceous plant cover by undesirable problem woody species. The active and passive restoration technologies that are applied, are mainly based on indigenous knowledge and include the chemical, mechanical or manual reclamation of unproductive rangelands, as well as the combating of woody and alien species encroachment. Indigenous practices and knowledge play a major role in the effectiveness and success rate of these technologies. This project faces the challenge of bringing together both local and scientific knowledge in a single user-friendly, computerised Decision Support System (DSS) which is directly accessible by land users to support them in the process of decision making, concerning the combating of desertification. Case studies from central and northern Namibia were used to combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop this Decision Support System. The DSS currently consists of two databases and an expert system, which evaluates the results of land users’ management practices, and provides easily accessible information and advice for participants in the system, based on the incorporated data. The DSS is also linked to national and international web sites and databases to offer a wider range of information on technologies concerning agricultural and conservation practices.     

灰色系统决策与环境投资项目优化选择

根据环境投资项目方案优选所具有的灰色特性．将灰色系统决策法用于此优选过程．经实例分析表明，灰色系统决策原理简单、计算方便、赋权合理、精确度高、决策结果符合客观实际．     

Decision making during the prenatal diagnostic procedure. A questionnaire and interview study of 211 women participating in prenatal diagnosis

Counselling in connection with prenatal diagnosis (PND) is a common task for the obstetrician and the midwife. However, the decision making processes of pregnant women are not completely known, for instance, the questions of women's autonomy, the decision on how to act in the case of an abnormal test, and the partner's participation in the decision. A questionnaire and interview study was carried out among 211 women undergoing PND by amniocentesis or chorionic villus biopsy. Most women in the sample indicated that PND was completely voluntary. However, at the same time almost every woman reported that it was difficult to decline from PND when offered. Even before the visit to register at the antenatal clinic, most of the women (83 per cent) had made up their minds to have PND. At the time of the test, many of the participants (62 per cent) had decided in favour of a legal abortion if the test indicated an abnormality in the fetus. At the same time, however, the data indicate a need for reflection and ambivalence, which the medical staff have to accept. In the questionnaire most of the women stated that they and their partners had similar attitudes towards PND, but when interviewed 38 per cent of the women admitted some differences between their own attitudes and their partners'. Although some women reported considerable deliberation and ambivalence, most of them said that they would undergo PND in another pregnancy.     

用VB语言编制水环境管理决策支持系统

在分析国内外环境管理决策支持系统（ＥＤＳＳ）开发现状的基础上，提出了采用Ｍｉｃｒｏｓｏｆｔ Ｖｉｓｕａｌ Ｂａｓｉｃ来开发水环境管理决策支持系统（ＷＥＭＤＳＳ）的方法，并利用程序语言编制了广东省潭江的ＷＥＭＤＳＳ。实例研究表明，充分利用ＶＢ编程语言的特点，可以快速方便地完成ＷＥＭＤＳＳ的结构设计和实现系统的各项功能。     

Fisheries management: integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment

Fisheries management is the practice of analyzing and selecting options to maintain or alter the structure, dynamics, and interaction of habitat, aquatic biota, and man to achieve human goals and objectives. The theory of fisheries management is: managers or decision makers attempt to maximize renewable `output' from an aquatic resource by choosing from among a set of decision options and applying a set of actions that generate an array of outputs. Outputs may be defined as a tangible catch, a fishing experience, an existence value, or anything else produced or supported by renewable aquatic resources. Overall output is always a mix of tangible and intangible elements. However defined, management goals and objectives are essential components of fisheries management or any other field of renewable natural resource management. Reaching consensus on management goals and objectives has never been a simple task. Beyond the broad and often conflicting goals of an agency, managers must decide who should set specific management objectives — agency personnel, the public, or a combination of the two. Historically, rhetoric aside, fisheries managers in North America nearly always have consulted with professionals in governmental roles to set management objectives. In a strongly pluralistic society, this often resulted in protracted political and legal conflict. Increasingly, there are calls for use of risk assessment to help solve such ecological policy and management problems commonly encountered in fisheries management. The basic concepts of ecological risk assessment may be simple, but the jargon and details are not. Risk assessment (and similar analytical tools) is a concept that has evoked strong reactions whenever it has been used. In spite of the difficulties of defining problems and setting management objectives for complex ecological policy questions, use of risk assessment to help solve ecological problems is widely supported. Ecological risk assessment will be most useful (and objective) in political deliberations when the policy debate revolves around largely technical concerns. To the extent that risk assessment forces policy debate and disagreement toward fundamental differences rather than superficial ones, it will be useful in decision making.     

战略环境评价方法学研究

通过对国内外开展战略环境评价实施的研究，分析了战略环境评价程序中各个阶段的主要内容与方法，项目环境影响评价与战略环境评价在方法学上的异同，提出了我国在战略环境评价起步阶段方法研究应注意的方面。     

Energy efficiency and appliance’s characteristics considered prior to purchase: Differences and similarities between the United Kingdom,Germany, Portugal,Greece, Poland,Spain and Italy

This article reports country differences in the consumer’s most considered characteristics when choosing electrical appliances, including but not restricted to the energy efficiency aspect. A survey was performed to store customers from 7 countries: the United Kingdom; Germany; Portugal; Greece; Poland; Spain; Italy. Results showed consistency between countries in the top three characteristics considered: cost; quality; and a balance between price and quality. Differences were found for reported environmental attitudes and behaviours, purchase motives, and store employees evaluation. The results may support national policies and store level energy efficiency interventions. Specifically, they can provide input for store employee’s training, in persuading customers towards the purchase of energy efficient appliances.     

Improving invasive species management by integrating priorities and contributions of scientists and decision makers

Managing invasive species is a major challenge for society. In the case of newly established invaders, rapid action is key for a successful management. Here, we develop, describe and recommend a three-step transdisciplinary process (the “butterfly model”) to rapidly initiate action for invasion management. In the framing of a case study, we present results from the first of these steps: assessing priorities and contributions of both scientists and decision makers. Both scientists and decision makers prioritise research on prevention. The available scientific knowledge contributions, however, are publications on impacts rather than prevention of the invasive species. The contribution of scientific knowledge does thus not reflect scientists’ perception of what is essentially needed. We argue that a more objective assessment and transparent communication of not only decision makers’ but also scientists’ priorities is an essential basis for a successful cooperation. Our three-step model can help achieve objectivity via transdisciplinary communication.     

Decision making under uncertainty in case of soil remediation

Decisions on soil remediation are one of the most difficult management issues of municipal and state agencies. The assessment of contamination is uncertain, the costs of remediation are high, and the impacts on the environment are multiple. This paper presents a general, transparent, and consistent method for decision making among the remediation alternatives. Soil washing, phytoremediation, and no remediation are exemplarily considered. Multi-criteria utility functions including (a) the cost of remediation (b) the impact on human health and agricultural productivity, and (c) the economic gain after remediation are constructed using probability density functions representing contamination for all site coordinates. Herewith, the probability of different types of (i) correct decisions such as a hit or a true rejection and (ii) erroneous decisions such as a false alarm or miss are examined. The decision theoretic model is applied to a case study on heavy metal contaminated soil. This case study reveals the non-linear structure of multi-criteria-decision making. The case study shows that the geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal distributed soil contamination must be taken into account: When uncertainties are not considered and the utilities are assessed according to the estimated value for a spatial unit, only few (N=26) spatial units result where the utility score of the alternative soil washing are higher than the utility score to the no remediation alternative. However, when taking into account geostatistical uncertainties of the log-normal soil distribution this number is about ten times greater (N=237). Furthermore, the use of 'maximizing expected utility' as decision rule is critical in that it may lead to a high probability of misses.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.