A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

Modeling of a sequencing batch reactor treating municipal wastewater using multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function artificial neural networks

A sequencing batch reactor was modeled using multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function artificial neural networks (MLPANN and RBFANN). Then, the effects of influent concentration (IC), filling time (FT), reaction time (RT), aeration intensity (AI), SRT and MLVSS concentration were examined on the effluent concentrations of TSS, TP, COD and NH₄⁺-N. The results showed that the optimal removal efficiencies would be obtained at FT of 1 h, RT of 6 h, aeration intensity of 0.88 m³/min and SRT of 30 days. In addition, COD and TSS removal efficiencies decreased and TP and NH₄⁺-N removal efficiencies did not change significantly with increases of influent concentration. The TSS, TP, COD and NH₄⁺-N removal efficiencies were 86%, 79%, 94% and 93%, respectively. The training procedures of all contaminants were highly collaborated for both RBFANN and MLPANN models. The results of training and testing data sets showed an almost perfect match between the experimental and the simulated effluent of TSS, TP, COD and NH₄⁺-N. The results indicated that with low experimental values of input data to train ANNs the MLPANN models compared to RBFANN models are more precise due to their higher coefficient of determination (R²) and lower root mean squared errors (RMSE) values.     

基于复杂系统建模的水管理政策研究进展

基于Agent的建模方法（ABSS）通过自下而上的方式，考察系统中主体的不同状态和行为特征、主体与环境的作用、主体之间的作用，来表征系统的宏观特征，是进行复杂社会环境系统分析和政策研究的重要手段，在水资源、水环境管理系统中得到了有效的应用。本文在大量文献调研的基础上，讨论了ABSS建模方法的基本原理、主要特征、系统构成、分类方法和开发工具等特征，总结了其供水系统发展、水资源分配和流域水资源管理、农业土地和水资源利用、居民用水行为、农业污染控制及人类活动的水环境影响等方面的应用，分析了其在研究内容、研究方法、研究结果等方面的发展趋势，讨论了利用该方法研究我国水资源管理和水污染控制政策的必要性和重要性。     

内螺纹变截面铜管拉伸工艺的研究

此文提出了内螺纹变截面铜管分段拉仲一次成形新工艺,并就工艺因素对该管拉伸成形的影响进行了试验研究,从而为合理制订成形工艺提供了依据。     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

中国主要电子废物产生量估算

在分析了电子废物类型及其可能造成的主要环境问题的基础上。根据电子电器产品的销量、社会保有量以及产品寿命期等因子建立模型对我国2000-2010年间的电脑、电视机、冰箱、洗衣机、空调等5大类电子电器产品的年度废弃量进行估算。结果显示到2003年电脑年度废弃量达到447万台，总体呈增长趋势；电视机、冰箱的废弃量在2003年分别达到4229万台和976万台；洗衣机年度废弃量有一定波动。大约在2005年达到一个高峰，废弃量为1521万台；空调废弃量相对于其他家电较少，但一直处于稳步增长期。并在此基础估算了我国2003年主要电子废物中的可回收资源含量。量大而且增长较快的电子废物的处置和资源再生化将是我国电子废物管理面临的一个难题。     

Body fluid analog chlorination: Application to the determination of disinfection byproduct formation kinetics in swimming pool water

Disinfection by-products(DBPs) are formed in swimming pools by the reactions of bather inputs with the disinfectant.Although a wide range of molecules has been identified within DBPs,only few kinetic rates have been reported.This study investigates the kinetics of chlorine consumption,chloroform formation and dichloroacetonitrile formation caused by human releases.Since the flux and main components of human inputs have been determined and formalized through Body Fluid Analogs(BFAs),it is possible to model the DBPs formation kinetics by studying a limited number of precursor molecules.For each parameter the individual contributions of BFA components have been quantified and kinetic rates have been determined,based on reaction mechanisms proposed in the literature.With a molar consumption of 4 mol Cl_2/mol,urea is confirmed as the major chlorine consumer in the BFA because of its high concentration in human releases.The higher reactivity of ammonia is however highlighted.Citric acid is responsible for most of the chloroform produced during BFA chlorination.Chloroform formation is relatively slow with a limiting rate constant determined at 5.50 × 10~(-3) L/mol/sec.L-histidine is the only precursor for dichloroacetonitrile in the BFA.This DBP is rapidly formed and its degradation by hydrolysis and by reaction with hypochlorite shortens its lifetime in the basin.Reaction rates of dichloroacetonitrile formation by L-histidine chlorination have been established based on the latest chlorination mechanisms proposed.Moreover,this study shows that the reactivity toward chlorine differs whether L-histidine is isolated or mixed with BFA components.     

Competitive Retention of Lead and Cadmium on an Agricultural Soil

Lead and cadmium contamination of an agricultural soil has been studied using batch and column experiments. Thermodynamics of theretention phenomena may be represented by a Langmuir isotherm foran aqueous metal concentration up to 100 mg L^-1. First order kinetics with respect to the solid phase yield good predictabilityfor both batch and column experiments. Kinetics and thermodynamics of lead retention predominate over those ofcadmium. As a consequence, lead is preferentially retainedand can even displace sorbed cadmium. In the event of anspill involving both metals, cadmium would move further inthe soil and its aqueous concentration downstream could beeven higher than that of the influent solution, increasingpotential risks. A two-region model has been used to fit all the experimental results. Satisfactory predictions for column experiments are obtained with parameters which are consistent with those obtained for the batch experiments, for which sorption is described by a Langmuir isotherm including competitive retention.     

Formulation and Validation of an Empirical Moisture Damage Index

An empirical moisture damage index was developed in order to reduce the subjectivity of the estimation of moisture damage in domestic residences, in relation to occupant health. The database was generated using information gathered from a sample of 164 houses that were examined by civil engineers, and questionnaire data collected from the occupants. The index was formulated to associate with the occupant reported respiratory symptoms by calculating weighted estimates of selected moisture damage attributes using 80% of the sample. The remaining 20% of the sample was used to verify the final index. The index associated strongly with the health symptoms of interest. This index is a tool that may be used as an indicator of moisture damage induced exposure in domestic residences.