考虑“双碳”目标与健康损失的区域现役火电机组有序退役研究

火电行业是我国经济社会发展的重要基础和保障，但也是碳排放的主要源头之一。在“双碳”目标约束下，新能源装机将持续增长，而火电机组则面临降碳和退役的压力。以安徽省为研究区域，考虑“双碳”目标与污染导致的健康损失等因素，对全省现役火电机组的计划退役与有序退役方案进行对比分析，为火电行业实现低碳发展提供路径参考。在有序退役方案下，结合初始投资、使用年限、年度发电收益与污染物排放计算出现役机组每年的净现值，并且根据未来安徽省碳排放削减目标，得到优化后的机组退役时间和顺序。结果表明：与常规的计划退役方案相比，有序退役方案使安徽省火电机组退役时间平均提前约5 a，在2060年碳中和之前可实现现役机组全部退役。2020—2060年，现役机组有序退役可累计减少碳排放量12.76亿t；累计减少SO₂、NO_x、PM_2.5排放量分别为1.44万t、2.13万t、0.17万t，比计划退役方案减少8.66亿元的健康损失。机组的有序退役不仅能带来巨大的环境效益与社会效益，也为“双碳”目标的实现提供了有力保障。     

Midnight at the oasis: does restoration change the rigs-to-reefs debate in the North Sea?

ABSTRACT

In the North Sea, many oil and gas fields will reach the end of their productivity and their associated structures will be decommissioned. OSPAR decision 98/3 prescribes removal of all disused offshore structures as the only acceptable decommissioning option. This policy is the legacy of the 1995 Brent Spar incident, which resulted in the current dominant discourse of ‘Hands off the Oceans,’ ruling out the conversion of oil and gas rigs into artificial reefs (Rigs-to-Reefs (RtR)). The shift from a conservation to a restoration paradigm could open up the RtR debate. In this paper, a discourse analysis is carried out to discern whether and how ideas about RtR and ecosystem restoration are articulated to challenge the dominant ‘Hands off the Oceans’ discourse and thereby bring about change in North Sea decommissioning policy. A discourse analytic framework is applied to elucidate whether an ‘RtR as Restoration’ discourse can be distinguished and how competing claims are presented in the various storylines. Our analysis shows an ‘RtR as Restoration’ discourse, consisting of four different storylines. Given the fragmented nature of this discourse, the ‘RtR as Restoration’ discourse will not overcome the dominant ‘Hands off the Oceans’ discourse.     

病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估 ——以水库的游憩价值为例

以滁州市黑洼水库的游憩价值为例,利用两边界二分式条件价值法,探讨了我国病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估.利用收入限制的Logit模型,分析支付意愿均值和中值点估计和区间估计对其分布函数右尾变化的灵敏性.结果表明本研究中支付意愿的分布函数没有出现“大尾效应”,在最大投标值处,对分布函数进行简单截断的方法统计效率最高.滁州市公众对黑洼水库游憩功能提升的平均支付意愿为305元/户(95%置信区间265~351元/户);总价值为3782万元(95%置信区间3296~4355万元).表明即使是小型病险水库也可能具有极高的环境价值,病险水库管理决策必须考虑环境价值这一重要指标.     

生物滴滤器净化低浓度甲苯废气的非稳态工况研究

生物法处理大气污染物时,经常会遇到条件波动或污染物间歇排放等非稳态工况。在不同非稳态条件下,考察了甲苯废气间歇排放对生物滴滤器净化性能的影响。实验方案分3种情况:无甲苯废气排放、无循环液供应或同时没有甲苯废气和循环液的供应。间歇排放时间从2~47 d不等。结果表明,不管何种形式的停运或故障,甲苯净化能力4 d以内基本不下降;停运时间超过5 d,则甲苯去除能力严重下降,仅为原来的1/3~1/2;停运时间在10 d以内,24 h内即可恢复,47 d的长期停运,3 d内也可恢复净化能力。     

A LAW AND ECONOMICS APPROACH TO RESOLVING RESERVOIR SEDIMENT MANAGEMENT CONFLICTS1

The loss of the world's reservoir capacity to sedimentation can be mitigated by altering dam operations to release sediment downstream. However, legal uncertainty regarding whether dam owners are liable for damages to surrounding landowners due to altered operations provides a significant disincentive for sustainable sediment management. Past work recommends that courts apply a “rule of reasonableness” in assessing liability: dam owners should be held liable for damages only if they act unreasonably in altering operations, and surrounding landowners should take reasonable measures to mitigate foreseeable damage. Based on past cases, judicial determinations of reasonable reservoir management and reasonable precautionary measures by landowners are generally highly speculative, controversial, and based on limited information. Courts can ease the future burden of making these difficult determinations with rulings that create economic incentives for parties to act reasonably. For example, courts might entitle landowners to be free from sediment related damages, and protect the entitlement with a liability rule. This gives dam owners an economic incentive to release sediment only if the benefits of doing so outweigh court ordered damages to landowners. Past judicial decisions are largely consistent with this legal regime.     

Optimal Policies for Aggregate Recycling from Decommissioned Forest Roads

To mitigate the adverse environmental impact of forest roads, especially degradation of endangered salmonid habitat, many public and private land managers in the western United States are actively decommissioning roads where practical and affordable. Road decommissioning is associated with reduced long-term environmental impact. When decommissioning a road, it may be possible to recover some aggregate (crushed rock) from the road surface. Aggregate is used on many low volume forest roads to reduce wheel stresses transferred to the subgrade, reduce erosion, reduce maintenance costs, and improve driver comfort. Previous studies have demonstrated the potential for aggregate to be recovered and used elsewhere on the road network, at a reduced cost compared to purchasing aggregate from a quarry. This article investigates the potential for aggregate recycling to provide an economic incentive to decommission additional roads by reducing transport distance and aggregate procurement costs for other actively used roads. Decommissioning additional roads may, in turn, result in improved aquatic habitat. We present real-world examples of aggregate recycling and discuss the advantages of doing so. Further, we present mixed integer formulations to determine optimal levels of aggregate recycling under economic and environmental objectives. Tested on an example road network, incorporation of aggregate recycling demonstrates substantial cost-savings relative to a baseline scenario without recycling, increasing the likelihood of road decommissioning and reduced habitat degradation. We find that aggregate recycling can result in up to 24% in cost savings (economic objective) and up to 890% in additional length of roads decommissioned (environmental objective).     

事故树分析法研究反应堆退役中的放射性危害

反应堆退役的安全性是退役活动的关键。退役中产生的放射性危害,不仅能直接对公众造成伤害,更可能对环境造成长久危害。采用事故树分析法对反应堆退役过程中的放射性危害进行研究探讨,并结合实际退役案例,对事故与导致事故发生原因之间的逻辑关系进行分析。结果表明：引起放射性事故发生的原因较多,既有内照射危害又有外照射危害。在分析基础上,提出了预防及治理措施,从而推进反应堆退役工作的顺利进行,保障人、物及环境的安全。     

中国民用核设施退役基金研究

总结了国际上有核国家在核设施退役资金方面的基本情况,包括资金的来源、征集、使用情况、管理模式、退役基金的建立及运作情况等,对中国现有的民用核设施情况进行阐述,对未来50年内计划退役的民用核设施进行统计,初步估算了退役所需的费用.调研中国民用核设施退役资金管理的现状,分析在退役资金方面存在的主要问题,并提出相应的建议.