基于指数平滑法的环境噪声污染预测模型及应用

为了研究城市环境噪声污染的数学模型,通过对厦门市环境噪声的实际情况的分析并结合指数平滑预测模型,提出了符合当前环境噪声的分段三次指数平滑模型。计算了不同平滑系数时数学模型的精度,同时应用建立的数学模型对福州市10年内的噪声污染进行了预测。预测发现,噪声污染呈逐年减小的趋势,到2020年区域环境噪声和交通噪声污染分别达55.09 dB(A)和67.19 dB(A)。指数平滑法的应用效果与平滑系数的选取关系密切,应用时要根据预测的精度要求和预测期限的长短,适当选取平滑系数,并对预测的精度进行分析。结果表明基于该方法预测未来中期环境噪声准确率满足使用需求,并为其他环境噪声预测提供一种新的方法。     

Role of Crab Herbivory in Die-Off of New England Salt Marshes

Abstract:  Die-offs of cordgrass are pervasive throughout western Atlantic salt marshes, yet understanding of the mechanisms precipitating these events is limited. We tested whether herbivory by the native crab , Sesarma reticulatum , is generating die-offs of cordgrass that are currently occurring on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), by manipulating crab access to cordgrass transplanted into die-off areas and healthy vegetation. We surveyed 12 Cape Cod marshes to investigate whether the extent of cordgrass die-off on creek banks, where die-offs are concentrated, was related to local Sesarma grazing intensity and crab density. We then used archived aerial images to examine whether creek bank die-off areas have expanded over the past 2 decades and tested the hypothesis that release from predation, leading to elevated Sesarma densities, is triggering cordgrass die-offs by tethering crabs where die-offs are pervasive and where die-offs have not yet been reported. Intensity of crab grazing on transplanted cordgrass was an order of magnitude higher in die-off areas than in adjacent vegetation. Surveys revealed that Sesarma herbivory has denuded nearly half the creek banks in Cape Cod marshes, and differences in crab-grazing intensity among marshes explained >80% of variation in the extent of the die-offs. Moreover, the rate of die-off expansion and area of marsh affected have more than doubled since 2000. Crab-tethering experiments suggest that release from predation has triggered elevated crab densities that are driving these die-offs, indicating that disruption of predator–prey interactions may be generating the collapse of marsh ecosystems previously thought to be exclusively under bottom-up control .     

铀矿井排风口尾气对周边农田土壤放射性污染的预测

铀矿井尾气排风口周围土壤中放射性物质的累积性污染不容忽视,但目前处于监测和积累数据阶段.在对指数平滑法综合应用分析研究的基础上,根据某铀矿井排风口周边某一农田土壤中近10 a的铀(238U)质量比监测数据建立了指数平滑预测模型,对土壤放射性铀(238U)污染进行预测,并对预测结果进行了深入分析,精度达75%以上.预测结果表明,采用指数平滑法建立土壤放射性污染预测模型是可行的,具有一定的应用价值.铀矿井排风口尾气对周边土壤的放射性累积性污染呈逐年递增趋势,迫切需要采取一些切实可行的控制措施.     

入侵植物互花米草水浸液对莴苣的化感效应

选用互花米草根、茎、叶5个浓度梯度(0.065、0.130、0.195、0.260、0.325 g·mL-1)的水浸液为处理液,研究其对莴苣种子萌发及幼苗生长的影响.结果表明:互花米草根水浸液在浓度大于0.260 g·mL-1时会显著抑制莴苣种子的萌发,而茎、叶水浸液产生显著抑制作用的起始浓度分别为0.130 g·mL-1和0.195 g·mL-1;互花米草根、茎、叶水浸液对莴苣种子萌发的抑制,不仅表现为降低种子的最终萌发率,还表现为延长种子的平均萌发周期;茎、叶水授液对幼苗生长的影响比较显著.而根水浸液浓度低于0.195g·mL-1时对幼苗胚轴的生长产生促进作用(敏感指数RI>0).不同构件水浸液化感效应强度由大到小依次为:茎>叶>根.并且化感效应强度随水浸液浓度的增加而增强.     

英国城市交通安全管理的调查与思考

从科学管理的角度,总结分析了英国城市道路交通安全管理工作的经验:科学的道路规划网络,清晰的道路语言,完善的道路交通设施,前瞻的事故预防体系,健全的机动车管理制度,高效的停车管理措施,畅通的公路交通动脉,严格的执勤执法。在调查的基础上,结合我国道路交通状况及交通管理部门的工作实际,提出了加强我国城市道路交通科学管理的对策措施,为我国城市特别是中等以上城市治理交通拥堵、提高道路交通利用率提供了借鉴经验。     

不同源汇信息提取方法对区域CO2源汇估算及其季节变化的影响评估

从大气二氧化碳(CO2)浓度观测资料中准确提取源汇或本底信息对区域及全球碳源汇及大气CO2浓度长期变化趋势的定量估计至关重要.本研究以瓦里关大气CO2浓度观测资料为例,探讨了同期地面风和同期一氧化碳(CO)浓度观测资料作为源汇信息提取或本底值筛选因子的有效性.结果表明,地面风和同期CO浓度在冬季可作为筛选因子,但是夏季将其作为筛选因子不是十分有效.采用局部近似回归法(robust estimation of background signal,REBS)、傅里叶变换法(Fourier transform algorithm,FTA)和新发展的平均移动过滤法(moving average filtering,MAF)进行大气CO2浓度源汇及本底信息提取.结果表明,MAF法因其以每2周为一个拟合窗口,采用不断变化和调整的过滤标准,避免了在局部将抬升浓度或吸收浓度百分比过高或者过低估计,优于另外两种方法.3种方法对因区域排放源导致的大气CO2的抬升量的结果无显著差异,但对因区域吸收汇导致的大气CO2降低量差异明显.结果表明,3种方法均可以对受到人类活动排放源影响的CO2抬升浓度合理地筛分,但只有MAF法可对夏季吸收浓度较好地判别.MAF法获得的1995~2008年瓦里关大气CO2多年平均季振幅为约10.3×10-6(摩尔分数,下同),与前期观测结果一致;而REBS法得到的大气CO2逐年季振幅约为9.1×10-6,将会导致低估区域或全球CO2通量值.     

Potential for Using Native Plant Species in Stormwater Wetlands

Spartina pectinata (prairie cordgrass) was grown under five hydroperiods (wet–dry cycles) to determine its potential for use in stormwater wetlands, particularly as an alternative to the highly invasive Phalaris arundinacea (an exotic grass). Rhizomes planted in outdoor microcosms grew vigorously in all treatments, namely, weekly flooding in early summer, weekly flooding in late summer, flooding every three weeks throughout the summer, weekly flooding throughout the summer, and no flooding. Neither the timing nor frequency of 24-hour floods (10–20 cm deep) affected total stem length (grand mean 1003 ± 188.8 cm per pot, n = 140) or above-ground biomass (46.5 ± 8.3 g per pot, equivalent to ∼360 g/m²). However, by late summer, fewer new tillers were found in unflooded microcosms, indicating that vegetative expansion is drought-sensitive. The growth of Spartina plants was further assessed with and without Glyceria striata (a native grass) and Phalaris arundinacea. Glyceria growth was not affected by hydrologic treatment. Glyceria reduced Spartina growth by approximately 11%, suggesting potential as a cover crop that might reduce establishment and growth of Phalaris seedlings. Seeds of Phalaris did not germinate, but branch fragments established where soil was moist from flooding, regardless of the presence of Glyceria. The ability of Spartina to establish vegetatively and grow well under variable water levels leads us to recommend further testing in stormwater wetlands, along with early planting of Glyceria to reduce weed invasions.     

Eutrophication and Consumer Control of New England Salt Marsh Primary Productivity

Abstract:  Although primary productivity in salt marshes is thought to be controlled by physical forces, recent evidence suggests that human disturbances can drive a switch to consumer control in these ecologically valuable ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that nitrogen enrichment can trigger consumer control in salt marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, with (1) a field experiment in which we manipulated nutrient availability (with nutrient additions) and insect herbivory (with insecticide application), (2) a survey of 20 salt marshes that examined the relationship between marsh nutrient status and herbivore pressure, and (3) insect herbivore removal at high and low nutrient input sites to directly test the hypothesis that nutrient enrichment is increasing insect herbivory in these marshes. Experimental nitrogen eutrophication initially increased plant productivity but eventually led to reduced plant biomass due to insect herbivory, and our surveys revealed that marsh nitrogen supply was a good predictor of herbivore damage to plants. Insects had minimal impacts on primary productivity in pristine marshes, but suppressed primary productivity in eutrophic salt marshes by 50–75%. Thus, eutrophication is currently triggering consumer suppression of primary productivity in New England salt marshes and may ultimately jeopardize the ecological and societal services these systems provide.     

高温干发酵对互花米草产气和结构的影响

互花米草的疯长已带来严重的环境问题,厌氧发酵提供了一种资源化的解决途径.通过渗滤床高温、干式发酵互花米草,考察其产气特性;并通过元素分析、X-ray和FT-IR分析,考察干发酵及预处理对互花米草物化性质的影响.结果表明:60 d高温干发酵互花米草,累计产气量为280.9 mL/g VS(0℃);总TS与VS去除率分别为...