碳汇造林项目促进了当地经济发展吗?--基于四川县域面板数据的PSM-DID实证研究

林业是重要的碳汇资源,在减缓全球气候变化、改善自然生态环境、促进经济可持续发展等方面有着至关重要的作用。作为林业碳汇的重要实现形式,碳汇造林项目兼具生态保护、促进经济发展与贫困减缓等重要功能,其实施成效究竟如何需要进一步验证。为此,本文从理论上分析了碳汇造林项目对县域经济发展的影响机理,利用2000—2016年四川47个县域的面板数据,采用PSM-DID模型估计了碳汇造林项目对县域经济发展的平均效应和动态效应,并对其影响机理进行了验证。结果显示:①碳汇造林项目的实施显著地促进了地区实际GDP和人均实际GDP的增长,这一结论在进行稳健性检验后依然成立;②囿于项目周期较长,此促进作用在短期内尚不能立竿见影,具有明显的滞后效应,且实施的时间越长,对当地经济发展的促进作用越大;③碳汇造林项目主要通过优化当地产业结构、提高居民储蓄率、提升地区政府财政收支水平等途径促进当地经济发展。因此,为更好地发挥碳汇造林项目对县域经济发展的促进作用,应继续拓展碳汇造林项目的覆盖区域,加大专项投资力度,引导碳汇造林项目向生态脆弱的深度贫困地区倾斜;在更加注重碳汇造林项目的长期效应的同时,应建立完善项目运行的长效稳定机制,防范潜在的自然与市场风险,保障项目对地区经济发展的长期驱动力;加快改善地区的融资环境,鼓励居民和企业将储蓄和融资能力有效转化为投资能力,充分依托碳汇造林项目促进当地经济可持续发展。     

广元飞播造林成效与流域生态环境效益研究

运用川北广元历年飞播成效调查以及固定标准地观测的结果,结合笔者从事飞播造林技术与管理工作的经验,得出：飞播造林是速度快、省劳力、投资少、成本低、效益高的造林方式,推广飞机播种造林是绿化川北山地,迅速治理流域生态环境和实现山区经济可持续发展的有效措施     

元代自然资源的保护和利用探幽

元代1264年定都燕京后,为加强政治统治,在中原先进的农耕经济影响下,改变过去“逐水草而居”游牧经济的生产方式,在积极保护动、植物资源和合理开发利用土地、水资源等方面,采取了一些恢复和发展农业生产的举措。剖璞见玉,对今仍有史鉴作用。     

Sustainable global energy supply based on lignocellulosic biomass from afforestation of degraded areas

An important aspect of present global energy scenarios is the assumption that the amount of biomass that can be grown on the available area is so limited that a scenario based on biomass as the major source of energy should be unrealistic. We have been investigating the question whether a Biomass Scenario may be realistic. We found that the global energy demand projected by the International Energy Agency in the Reference Scenario for the year 2030 could be provided sustainably and economically primarily from lignocellulosic biomass grown on areas which have been degraded by human activities in historical times. Moreover, other renewable energies will contribute to the energy mix. There would be no competition with increasing food demand for existing arable land. Afforestation of degraded areas and investment for energy and fuel usage of the biomass are not more expensive than investment in energy infrastructure necessary up to 2030 assumed in the fossil energy based Reference Scenario, probably much cheaper considering the additional advantages such as stopping the increase of and even slowly reducing the CO₂ content of the atmosphere, soil, and water conservation and desertification control. Most importantly, investment for a Biomass Scenario would be actually sustainable, in contrast to investment in energy-supply infrastructure of the Reference Scenario. Methods of afforestation of degraded areas, cultivation, and energetic usage of lignocellulosic biomass are available but have to be further improved. Afforestation can be started immediately, has an impact in some few years, and may be realized in some decades. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

提高碳汇潜力：量化树种和造林模式对碳储量的影响

全球气候变化背景下,造林再造林固定的碳可以抵消温室气体减限排量。通过造林再造林增加森林面积可以增加林业碳汇,在土地面积有限的情况下,提高造林质量——在有限的造林面积上固定更多的碳是十分必要的。树种和造林模式的选择是增加森林生态系统碳汇的重要管理决策。文章综述了树种和造林模式对生态系统的碳储量的影响。树种从生物量的积累,凋落物和土壤碳储存,以及木材密度、碳贮存量等几个方面探讨其对生态系统碳库的影响。混交林能充分利用立地条件、改善树木营养状况,并且可以减少病虫害和森林火灾。同时分析了我国在森林经营方面存在的问题和改善途径,以期为该领域的研究提供参考。     

Pressure cookers or pressure valves: Do roads lead to deforestation in China?

The effect of roads on forests is ambiguous. Many studies conclude that building and upgrading roads increases pressure on forests but some find that new and better roads may reduce the rate of deforestation. In this paper we use satellite remote sensing images of forest cover in Jiangxi Province, China, to test whether the existence and the size of roads (ranging from expressways to tertiary roads) in 1995 affected the level of forest cover in 2000 or the rate of change between 1995 and 2000. To account for road access for each of our 1 km² (“pixel”) units of forest cover we measure whether or not and what type of roads penetrate the “watershed” in which the pixel lies. These watersheds allow more plausible measures of accessibility than do traditional “crowfly” distance measures that ignore topography. To account for possible confounding we also use 12 additional covariates: geographic and climatic variables (e.g., elevation, slope, rainfall, temperature, soil properties); demographic and economic variables (e.g., local population and GDP per square kilometer); and distance variables (e.g., distance to the nearest provincial capital). Although simple univariate OLS regressions show that forest levels are lower and deforestation rates higher either when there is a road, or when there is a higher quality road, these results are not robust. Controlling for all of the covariates and also using recently developed covariate matching techniques to estimate treatment effects, we find that roads in China’s Jiangxi Province can most safely be described as having no impact on the level of forests and no impact on the rate of deforestation.     

Evaluating Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration Options for Virginia

Changes in forest and agricultural land management practices have the potential to increase carbon (C) storage by terrestrial systems, thus offsetting C emissions to the atmosphere from energy production. This study assesses that potential for three terrestrial management practices within the state of Virginia, USA: afforestation of marginal agricultural lands; afforestation of riparian agricultural lands; and changing tillage practices for row crops; each was evaluated on a statewide basis and for seven regions within the state. Lands eligible for each practice were identified, and the C storage potential of each practice on those lands was estimated through a modeling procedure that utilized land-resource characteristics represented in Geographic Information System databases. Marginal agricultural lands’ afforestation was found to have the greatest potential (1.4 Tg C yr⁻¹, on average, over the first 20 years) if applied on all eligible lands, followed by riparian afforestation (0.2 Tg C yr⁻¹ over 20 years) and tillage conversion (0.1 Tg C yr⁻¹ over 14 years). The regions with the largest potentials are the Ridge and Valley of western Virginia (due to extensive areas of steep, shallow soils) and in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain in eastern Virginia (wet soils). Although widespread and rapid implementation of the three modeled practices could be expected to offset only about 3.4% of Virginia’s energy-related CO₂ emissions over the following 20 years (equivalent to about 8.5% of a Kyoto Treaty–based target), they could contribute to achievement of C-management goals if implemented along with other mitigation measures.     

Changes in soil organic matter composition after afforestation of arable farmland in northeast China

Since the 1970s, a substantial area of arable farmland in a semi-humid area of northeast China has been planted as deciduous forests (Populus tomentosa Carr.). This study investigates the effects of afforestation on soil organic carbon (SOC) content and the chemical composition of the soil. Soil samples (Calcic chernozem) were collected from the upper 10?cm of paired arable land and secondary forests established 5 and 25 years previously. Carbon isotope analysis and pyrolysis–gas chromatography/mass spectrometry were used to determine SOC composition. The results show that (i) compared to the arable land, five years of afforestation caused a decrease in SOC and N concentration, while 25 years of afforestation resulted in an increase in SOC content; (ii) stable isotope δ¹³C analyses of the forest soils show gradual loss of crop-derived C and an accumulation of forest-derived C; and (iii) afforestation increased lignin abundance and decreased decompositional activity in the 25-year-old forest topsoil. Higher amounts of short-/mid-chain aliphatic compounds were observed in the 5-year-old forest (5–10?cm); and (iv) the arable soil contained substantially higher amounts of decomposed plant material and microbially derived substances. The results obtained suggest that long-term afforestation increases the SOC concentration, and alters the chemical composition of SOC.     

Influence of organic ley–arable management and afforestation in sandy loam to clay loam soils on fluxes of N2O and CH4 in Scotland

Assessment of the sustainability of alternatives to conventional uses of agricultural land, viz. organic systems and afforestation should include consideration of any effects on trace gas budgets. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) fluxes and controlling soil properties were measured in an organic ley–arable rotation in north-east Scotland on a sandy loam. N₂O fluxes were monitored in the ley and arable phases and in organic permanent grass (Lolium perenne) located nearby throughout the 3-year phase duration. Gas fluxes in woodland that had been converted from arable for 1 or 6 years were also measured in both north-east and south-east Scotland on sandy loam to clay loam soils. The climate is maritime and variable with annual rainfall between 800 and 900 mm. Within the organic rotation, differences in N₂O fluxes between the ley and arable phases were less marked than in conventional agriculture. Although this was mainly because grassland emissions were low, some losses from the arable component were also relatively high. Seasonal rainfall had a major influence on cumulative emissions of N₂O, including the first year after conversion from ley to arable. In the short term, changing land use from arable to woodland increased CH₄ oxidation rates and decreased N₂O emissions, though both these rates were also influenced by seasonal weather. Afforestation of agricultural land appears to be more beneficial to trace gas exchange than conversion to organic production.     

The ‘hidden’ social costs of forestry offsets

The article quantifies the size of ‘hidden’ social costs that are incurred by forestry offsets in the voluntary market that promise to offset present emissions sometime in the future. It does this by estimating the difference between the social costs of carbon (C) emitted and of costs offset by removal of C from the atmosphere by reforestation/afforestation. All current attempts to make forestry offsets more reliable focus on quality control rather than the mismatch of the timing of emissions and their offset. Recommendations that follow from the analysis are twofold. First, that markets for carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) removals by voluntary offsets should be confined to the annual incremental removals actually achieved. Second, the promoters of voluntary offsets projects should declare the annual stream of carbon credits and debits expected so that buyers can place a present value on such projects.