哈密地区环境中^220Rn子体α潜能浓度所致居民剂量估算

用ＳｔｒａｎｄｅｎＥ．推荐的测量方法对哈密地区环境空气中２２０Ｒｎ子体α潜能浓度测量结果表明，室内、外平均值分别为５６．１和１０．２（×１０－７Ｊ·ｍ－３）。室内外２２０Ｒｎ／２２２Ｒｎ子体α潜能浓度比值分别为０．８４和０３２。２２０Ｒｎ子体所致居民有效剂量当量为２２８μＳｖ·ａ－１（集体有效剂量当量为０．９×０２ｍａｎ·Ｓｖ）。     

An optimal level of dust explosion risk management: Framework and application

The current research provides guidance on the prevention and mitigation of dust explosion using a Quantitative Risk Management Framework (QRMF). Using concepts drawn from previous studies, the framework consists of three main steps: (i) a new combined safety management protocol, (ii) the use of DESC (Dust Explosion Simulation Code) and FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) to assess explosion consequences and likelihood, respectively, and (iii) application of the hierarchy of controls (inherent, engineered and procedural safety). QRMF assessment of an industrial case study showed that the original process was at high risk. DESC simulations and Probit equations determined the destructive percentages. FTAs revealed high probabilities of explosion occurrence; in addition, detailed individual and societal risks calculations were made, before and after the framework was applied. Based on the hierarchy of controls technique, the framework showed significant risk reduction to the point where the residual risk was acceptable for the process.     

A new pre-assessment model for failure-probability-based-planning by neural network

At present, the prediction of failure probability is based on the operation period for laid pipelines, and the method is complicated and time-consuming. If the failure probability can be predicted in the planning stage, the risk assessment system of gas pipeline will be greatly improved. In this paper, the pre-laying assessment model is established to minimize risk of leakage due to piping layout. Firstly, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) modeling is carried out for urban natural gas pipeline network. According to expert evaluation, 84 failure factors, which can be determined in the planning stage, are selected as the input variables of the training network. Then the FTA model is used to calculate the theoretical failure probability value, and the failure probability prediction model is determined through repeated trial calculation based on BP (Back Propagation Neural Network) and RBF (Radial Basis Function), for obtaining the optimal network parameter combination. Finally, two prediction models are used to calculate the same example. By comparing our pre-assessment model with the theoretical prediction consequences of the fault tree, the results show that the error of RBF prediction model can be close to 3%, which proves the validity and correctness of the method.     

Managing the Three-Rivers Headwater Region, China: From Ecological Engineering to Social Engineering

The three-rivers headwater region (THRHR) of Qinghai province, China plays a key role as source of fresh water and ecosystem services for central and eastern China. Global warming and human activities in the THRHR have threatened the ecosystem since the 1980s. Therefore, the Chinese government has included managing of the THRHR in the national strategy since 2003. The State Integrated Test and Demonstration Region of the THRHR highlights the connection with social engineering (focus on improving people’s livelihood and well-being) in managing nature reserves. Based on this program, this perspective attempts a holistic analysis of the strategic role of the THRHR, requirements for change, indices of change, and approaches to change. Long-term success of managing nature reserves requires effective combination of ecological conservation, economic development, and social progress. Thus, the philosophy of social engineering should be employed as a strategy to manage the THRHR.     

Time needed to evacuate the Netherlands in the event of large-scale flooding: strategies and consequences

On 30 May 2008, the Government of the Netherlands informed the national parliament about the effectiveness of preventive evacuation of coastal and river areas in case of flooding. Analysis of a case study showed that it is impossible to evacuate coastal areas preventively within a 48-hour time span preceding a worst credible scenario flood caused by a storm surge. This fact illustrates the need for alternative evacuation strategies, such as vertical evacuation (evacuating to safe havens, inside the flood zone) or shelter-in-place (hiding), to reduce loss of life and the impact of the evacuation. This paper defines these strategies and demonstrates, by returning to the case study used by the Dutch government, that they require different measures, methods of approach, and crisis management processes. In addition, it addresses the need for flexible and scalable preparation so that after detecting and understanding the threat, authorities and citizens can make decisions about different evacuation strategies.     

苏北地区农业环境问题及管理方案的探讨

配合江苏省“碧海计划”和盐城市海洋经济绿色农业的发展，探讨了现阶段农业环境污染控制的直接政策管理、经济手段和人工生态工程处理三种方案，其中政策管理，如减少化肥农药的施用规定能减少污染，直接经济投入少，但是执行管理成本高，且政策见效慢；经济手段能减少污染，但环境目标达标不确定，且需要完善的市场环境，目前来说，本地区市场机制不完善，会出现“市场失灵”现象；人工湿地生态工程，前期投入大，但管理成本低，环境目标确定，但不能快速削减污染负荷。三种方案各有所长，在实际操作中，应针对不同区域的农业产业状况、方案时间迟度组合使用。     

三峡水库135 m蓄水前后水体重金属环境健康风险评价

三峡水库135 m蓄水后,水体中各重金属的单因子污染指数和Nemerow综合污染指数均有不同程度的增大,特别是Pb污染应该引起重视.健康风险评价结果表明,成库前后非致癌有毒化学物质(Hg、Pb和Cu)所引起的健康危害的个人年风险为Pb＞Cu＞Hg,致癌物质对人体健康危害的个人年风险均大于非致癌物.各类污染物所致个人平均健康危害成库前后均低于国际辐射防护委员会(ICRP)推荐的标准,为可接受水平.     

西部水资源开发利用风险现状评价

我国实施西部大开发战略后,西部水资源开发利用问题变得越来越突出.为了弄清楚西部水资源开发利用存在的风险现状,本文在风险概念的基础上探讨了水资源开发利用风险概念和影响因素,并构建了西部水资源开发利用风险评价指标体系.根据水资源系统表现出多模态、突跳和发散的基本突变特征,论述了运用突变理论评价水资源开发利用风险具有一定的可行性,将突变理论引入到水资源开发利用风险评价中,对西部水资源开发利用风险进行评价.首先对各项风险评价指标按照重要性排序,并对各指标值进行无量纲化;然后利用突变模型的归一公式和突变模型的评价准则进行递归运算,最后求出各层指标相对风险值(突变隶属度),将评价结果与风险等级对照,综合判断和分析各层各项指标相对风险状况.计算结果表明:在西部12个省份中,各层指标的风险值差异显著,但是水资源开发利用综合风险值分布在0 66-0.92之间,总体上属于中高度风险水平,12省份风险从小到大排序为:西藏→陕西→重庆→四川→青海→云南→贵州→广西→内蒙→甘肃→新疆→宁夏,这一结果与西部12省份水资源开发利用实际状况相符,可以为西部大开发过程水资源合理有效利用和管理提供风险决策参考依据.     

长江白鱀豚的保护

白鱀豚是我国特有的珍稀淡水哺乳动物,仅分布于长江中下游,目前长江白鱀豚的种群数量仅约200头,濒临灭绝。造成白鱀豚濒危的主要威胁来自长江鱼类资源的减少、有害渔具的广泛使用、航运事业的发展、河道的大规模整治、水电工程的建设、水体污染以及白鱀豚自身的生理特征。通过我们多年的研究,提出了建立半自然白鱀豚保护区、人工饲养下白鱀豚的繁殖,和建立长江白鱀豚自然保护区等三大措施。在各级政府和科研部门的共同努力下,三项措施正在落实,为保护白鱀豚创造了良好的条件,但面临的困难还很多,任务十分艰巨,我们希望开展广泛的国际合作,为保护白鱀豚共同努力。     

台湾海峡溢油应急反应合作初探

分析了日益繁忙的台湾海峡这一黄金水道潜在的大规模突发性溢油风险，指出了建立台湾海峡溢油应急计划的迫切性，并提出该计划的框架思路，呼呈两携手合作共同抗御海峡溢油。