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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
利用TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,TRMM)3B43月降水数据,并结合降水Z指数,研究朝鲜1998—2018年的降水和旱涝时空格局。结果表明:TRMM与站点观测降水数据有显著的相关性。朝鲜降水季节性特征明显,57.29%的降水集中在夏季,空间上自东北部沿海岸线向东南递增。朝鲜的区域综合旱涝等级基本处于正常状态,偏旱和偏涝发生的频率最高,其次是大旱和大涝,极旱和极涝发生的频率最低,夏季和冬季干旱发生最为频繁,而洪涝在秋季频发。朝鲜北部发生旱涝事件的频率明显高于南部,咸镜山脉和盖马高原是旱涝的多发地区,温泉平原则最不易受到旱涝影响。春季、夏季和秋季均呈现洪涝强度增强的趋势。夏季洪涝强度加剧的趋势明显,中北部地区通过95%的显著性检验。 相似文献
3.
为探究干旱环境对BVOCs排放的影响,应用动态封闭式采样系统和热脱附-气相色谱-飞行质谱仪,对短期干旱胁迫作用下马尾松的BVOCs排放进行了实验室测量,定量分析BVOCs排放速率和排放组成的变化.结果表明,干旱胁迫时异戊二烯的排放受到抑制,排放速率降低约50%;单萜烯和倍半萜烯的排放水平增强,排放速率分别为137.85和0.98μg/(m2·h),是未受胁迫时的2.9和2.0倍.除反式-α-香柠檬烯外,干旱胁迫促进各单萜烯和倍半萜烯化合物的排放,是未受胁迫时的1.3~42.4倍,其中3-蒈烯排放的响应最敏感,α-葑烯、α-水芹烯和石竹烯的响应最弱.干旱胁迫时单萜烯和倍半萜烯的排放组成有所变化,但主导的化合物种类不变,单萜烯以α-蒎烯、香桧烯和β-蒎烯为主,占比分别为48%、17%和17%;倍半萜烯以石竹烯和长叶烯为主,占比分别为57%和34%. 相似文献
4.
5.
采用150 g/L的聚乙二醇(Polyethylene glycol,PEG)模拟干旱胁迫,研究两种桑科植物(构树和桑树)的叶片光合及光呼吸特征对干旱胁迫的响应。对植物培养液的相关化学参数以及叶片的光合参数进行测定,结果表明:干旱对构树根系吸水能力的影响小于桑树的;构树以中光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式适应干旱环境,桑树以低光合-低蒸腾-高水分利用率的模式来应对干旱环境;在模拟干旱环境下,构树以稳定的羧化效率-高光呼吸速率-高光呼吸利用份额来适应外界胁迫,而桑树以低羧化效率-低光呼吸速率-低光呼吸利用份额来应对外界胁迫。构树表现出对外界干旱胁迫更好的适应性,这种适应机制可能与其较强的光呼吸作用及其碳酸氢根离子利用能力有关。这种"以碳换水"的机制可能是喀斯特适生植物适应岩溶干旱的又一个重要机制。 相似文献
6.
Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
N. H. Ravindranath 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):843-853
Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered
separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy
between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy
between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted
under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the
potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples.
Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems
and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability.
Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity
conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil
and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need
for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate
change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased. 相似文献
7.
YellowRiverValleyfloodanddroughtdisaster:spatial-temporaldistributionpredictionandearly-warningGaoLin,ShaWanying,LiuHuaiquan,... 相似文献
8.
9.
10.
Scott Murtishaw Jayant Sathaye Christina Galitsky Kristel Dorion 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2006,11(3):645-665
The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the Center for Sustainable Development in the Americas (CSDA)
conducted technical studies and organized two training workshops to develop capacity in Central America for the evaluation
of climate change projects. This paper describes the results of two baseline case studies conducted for these workshops, one
for the power sector and one for the cement industry, that were devised to illustrate certain approaches to baseline setting.
Multiproject baseline emission rates (BERs) for the main Guatemalan electricity grid were calculated from 2001 data. In recent
years, the Guatemalan power sector has experienced rapid growth; thus, a sufficient number of new plants have been built to
estimate viable BERs. We found that BERs for baseload plants offsetting additional baseload capacity ranged from 0.702 kgCO2/kWh
(using a weighted average stringency) to 0.507 kgCO2/kWh (using a 10th percentile stringency), while the baseline for plants
offsetting load-following capacity is lower at 0.567 kgCO2/kWh. For power displaced from existing load-following plants, the
rate is higher, 0.735 kgCO2/kWh, as a result of the age of some plants used for meeting peak loads and the infrequency of
their use. The approved consolidated methodology for the Clean Development Mechanism yields a single rate of 0.753 kgCO2/kWh.
Due to the relatively small number of cement plants in the region and the regional nature of the cement market, all of Central
America was chosen as the geographic boundary for setting cement industry BERs. Unfortunately, actual operations and output
data were unobtainable for most of the plants in the region, and many data were estimated. Cement industry BERs ranged from
205 kgCO2 to 225 kgCO2 per metric ton of cement. 相似文献