Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

常减压蒸馏装置改造危险因素分析及安全对策

应用危险性预分析法,对一套常减压蒸馏装置扩容改造施工的危险因素进行分析,制定出相应的防范对策,以确保改造工作的安全.     

建设农村小康社会与发展生态农业

论述生态农业在建设农村小康社会中的重要作用，分析生态农业面临的形势和问题，并提出政策建议。     

"绿色会计"理论初探

由于自然资源的掠夺性开发和以牺牲环境为代价赚取经济利益最大化的现象还不同程度存在,使扣除经济活动中投入的环境成本后的国民生产总值--绿色GDP得到普遍关注.绿色会计是为保护生态环境而研究生态环境成本和价值、提供生态环境变化信息的环境会计,已越来越受到人们关注.文章就绿色会计概念、目标、主体、客体、科目设置及信息披露作为重点,进行了初步探讨.     

含半无限长裂纹压电材料的Ⅲ型强度因子

研究了含半无限长裂纹压电材料在平面内电场和反平面荷载作用下的问题 ,得到了满足拉普拉斯方程、裂纹面边界条件的位移函数解和电势函数解及电弹场的基本解 ,并得到了应力、应变、电位移强度因子和能量释放率。研究结果表明 ,在裂尖 ,电场强度没有奇异性 ,而应变、应力、电位移具有奇异性。     

岷江上游半干旱河谷土壤成土特征研究：以大沟流域为例

岷江上游半干旱河谷位于新构造运动活动带，其土壤形成和发育过程有着鲜明的区域特征。本文结合该区域的自然地理特点，综合分析各成土因素和土壤性状，对该区域土壤的成土特征进行了深入的分析和研究。     

循环流化床锅炉脱硫的影响因素分析

较为系统的分析了影响循环流化床锅炉脱硫的各因素,其中包括运行床温、Ca与S物质的量、床料粒度、流化速度、以及SO_2在炉膛停留时间等,提出在不同运行条件下利用拟合曲线找出最佳脱硫工况。     

典型湖泊水华特征及相关影响因素分析

通过2011-2015年对太湖、巢湖和滇池水华高发季节的连续监测,以藻类密度和水华面积为判据评价了3个湖体的水华情况及变化趋势,探讨了水华发生的主要影响因素。结果表明：太湖水华程度以"轻度水华"为主,巢湖水华程度以"轻微水华"为主,滇池水华程度以"中度水华"为主;太湖、巢湖和滇池水华规模均以"零星性水华"为主;太湖和巢湖藻类密度与水温、pH、溶解氧、总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度呈显著负相关,与氨氮无显著相关性;滇池藻类密度与水温、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度和氨氮呈显著负相关,与pH、溶解氧和总氮无显著相关性。     

基于维纳过程的MEMS陀螺仪贮存寿命评估

目的 针对MEMS陀螺仪在步进应力加速试验条件下获取的性能退化数据,提出基于维纳过程的贮存寿命评估方法及其模型准确度检验方法。方法 首先,确定温度为影响MEMS陀螺仪性能退化的主要环境因素,采用步进温度应力加速试验的方式获取其性能退化数据。其次,分析各项性能参数的演变规律,确定标度因数为表征产品性能退化的特征性能参数。最后,采用漂移维纳过程对标度因数退化轨迹进行建模,并外推得到常温条件下的贮存寿命。结果 采用留一法对模型精度进行验证,模型准确度最低为86.44%。可靠度水平为0.95时,常温贮存(25 ℃)条件下的寿命评估结果为50.02 a。结论 基于维纳过程建立的性能退化模型的准确度在85%以上,该模型可应用于指定贮存条件下MEMS陀螺仪的性能退化预测及贮存寿命评估。     

平原高速公路交通噪声对两侧敏感区域影响的探讨

针对目前平原高速公路交通噪声影响两侧敏感区域的状况,环评预测结果偏差过大的问题,应用声学传播理论,对交通噪声的衰减结果进行计算,并用实测数据进行验证。其结果对平原高速公路交通噪声的管理与治理提供相应的参考。