基于边介数的省域生态廊道构建方法优化

我国城市建设和生态保护工作均对土地资源有大量需求,二者之间的矛盾在经济优先发展区表现尤为明显.为了有效地改善生态环境,管控土地利用并引导其变化发展,需要建设具备不可替代特征的省域生态廊道.最小累积阻力模型（minimum cumulative resistance,MCR）是识别生态廊道最常用、有效的模型,但在应用于省域尺度时,MCR模型识别的潜在廊道路由存在冗余的问题.因此,通过引入网络科学中的边介数指数（edge-betweenness）对MCR模型进行优化,计算潜在廊道路由的边介数指数值,选取出其中最为重要和简明的结构来连通生态源地,即提取潜在路由中的骨干路由（backbone route）和关键战略点（key strategic point）作为不可替代的结构来指导省域生态廊道建设.将优化后的MCR模型应用于广东省,构建了全长5 493 km的省域生态廊道,其中包含生态源地20处,关键战略点11个,骨干生态廊道29条.骨干路由与关键战略点构成的不可替代省域生态廊道（irreplaceable provincial corridor）能够实现"廊道数量和占地面积最少、连通性基本不变"的目标.研究显示,边介数能够对潜在路由进行优化筛选,识别出维护省域生态安全的关键结构;不可替代生态廊道能够指导省域生态规划和土地空间的发展利用,并为更高水平的生态安全环境提供了演进的基础;同时也为土地资源紧张的地区提供了建设生态廊道的参考与依据.      

The Relation Between Sandstorms and Strong Winds in Xinjiang,China

With observational data spanning 1961–1999 from 90 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, China, the spatial and temporal characteristics of sandstorms and strong winds, and the contribution of strong winds to the occurrence of sandstormsare analyzed. Moreover, the dominant wind direction and minimumwind speeds during sandstorm periods are discussed. The research shows that although possessing similar climatic trends, sandstorms and strong winds in Xinjiang have opposite geographical distributions, i.e. places with more sandstorms show fewer strong winds. The contribution of strongwinds to sandstorms in northern Xinjiang is larger than that insouthern Xinjiang. The dominant wind directions clearly indicatethe paths of the weather systems that introduced the sandstorms.The minimum wind speeds in the sandstorms were over 10 ms^-1in northern and eastern Xinjiang and in the Turpan and Yanqi Basins of southern Xinjiang. In Tarim Basin of southern Xinjiang,however, the minimum wind speed was about 6–8 ms^-1, and even 6 ms^-1 at its southern edge.     

Integration of ecological–biological thresholds in conservation decision making

In the Anthropocene, coupled human and natural systems dominate and only a few natural systems remain relatively unaffected by human influence. On the one hand, conservation criteria based on areas of minimal human impact are not relevant to much of the biosphere. On the other hand, conservation criteria based on economic factors are problematic with respect to their ability to arrive at operational indicators of well‐being that can be applied in practice over multiple generations. Coupled human and natural systems are subject to economic development which, under current management structures, tends to affect natural systems and cross planetary boundaries. Hence, designing and applying conservation criteria applicable in real‐world systems where human and natural systems need to interact and sustainably coexist is essential. By recognizing the criticality of satisfying basic needs as well as the great uncertainty over the needs and preferences of future generations, we sought to incorporate conservation criteria based on minimal human impact into economic evaluation. These criteria require the conservation of environmental conditions such that the opportunity for intergenerational welfare optimization is maintained. Toward this end, we propose the integration of ecological–biological thresholds into decision making and use as an example the planetary‐boundaries approach. Both conservation scientists and economists must be involved in defining operational ecological–biological thresholds that can be incorporated into economic thinking and reflect the objectives of conservation, sustainability, and intergenerational welfare optimization.     

平原河网地区非点源污染风险差异化分区防控研究

土地利用优化和空间防控策略对非点源污染风险控制及水环境质量的改善具有重要意义。本文以太湖流域典型平原河网地区-上海市青浦区为研究对象,将灰色线性规划模型与最小累积阻力模型相结合,以控制非点源污染风险和增加经济效益、生态效益为目标,进行土地利用结构优化与空间分区防控研究,在空间上划设了水资源保育区、水资源重点防护区、非点源污染一般阻控区、非点源污染中等阻控区及非点源污染重点阻控区,并针对不同分区提出具有针对性的防控措施。与2012年相比,预测2020年优化防控方案下,可减少总氮、总磷的输出10.96%和41.33%。由此表明,优化土地利用结构和构建空间差异化防控机制是有效调控非点源污染风险,实现区域可持续土地利用,促进经济发展和保证生态环境安全的有效途径。     

基于水资源合理配置的河流“双总量”控制研究——以河北省唐山市为例

河道的最小控制流量和最大纳污控制量（简称“双总量”）是维系河流健康的决定性因子。论文初步建立了基于水资源合理配置的河流“双总量”控制研究技术框架,并对唐山市月尺度的“双总量”控制指标进行核算。通过水资源合理配置,除个别枯水年份和连续枯水年份外,唐山市河道的最小控制流量均可得到满足。在基准年、2010年和2020年3个规划水平年,唐山市规划河流COD的最大纳污控制量分别为16357．57、12659．19和11572．50t／a;NH3-N的最大纳污控制量分别为907．80、660．27和580．09t／a。在统一水资源配置平台上制定的“双总量”控制指标,从根本上保障了竞争用水条件下河流生态需水,客观确立了规划水平年河道纳污能力的年内分配,并整体上提高了河流的最大纳污能力。     

谱系聚类法在小区域粮食安全预测中的应用——以昆山市为例

粮食安全对国民经济的可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用,小区域由于受政策因素的影响较大,粮食安全相关指标的变化呈一定阶段性,长时间序列的数学规律并不突出,不利于规划工作的展开。论文基于昆山市的研究,提出谱系聚类与数学模型相结合的基本思路,在此基础上推出了聚类结果有效性的量化判定标准并对聚类法运用准则做了深入的探讨。实际数据分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;与利用全部时间序列数据建立的模型相比,运用谱系聚类的模型拟合和预测效果都有明显优势;至2015年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至6%,最小人均耕地面积降低至0.022 hm²。通过进一步的分析、对比及讨论,文章认为,谱系聚类法运用于小区域粮食安全预测,方法可操作性强,结论科学性显著。     

Competition of bloom-forming marine phytoplankton at low nutrient concentrations

Competition of three bloom-forming marine phytoplankton (diatom Skeletonema costatum, and dinoflagellates Prorocentrum minimum and Alexandrium tamarense) was studied through a series of multispecies cultures with di erent nitrate (NaNO3) and phosphate (NaH2PO4) levels and excess silicate to interpret red tide algae succession. S. costatum outgrew the other two dinoflagellates in nitrate and phosphate replete cultures with 10 mol/L Na2SiO3. Under nitrate limited (8.82 mol/L NaNO3) conditions, the growth of S. costatum was also dominant when phosphate concentrations were from 3.6 to 108 mol/L. Cell density of the two dinoflagellates only increased slightly, to less than 400 and 600 cells/mL, respectively. Cell density of S. costatum decreased with time before day 12, and then increased to 4000 cells/mL (1.5 mg/L dry biomass) at NaNO3 concentrations between 88.2 and 882 mol/L with limited phosphate (0.36 mol/L NaH2PO4) levels. In addition, P. minimum grew well with a maximal cell density of 1690–2100 cells/mL (0.5–0.6 mg/L dry biomass). Although S. costatum initially grew fast, its cell density decreased quickly with time later in the growth phase and the two dinoflagellates were dominant under the nitrate-limited and high nitrate conditions with limited phosphate. These results indicated that the diatom was a poor competitor compared to the two dinoflagellates under limited phosphate; however, it grew well under limited nitrate when growth of the dinoflagellates was near detection limits.     

长江流域近50年来的气温变化特征

分析了1951~2000年长江流域（上、中、下游）的平均气温、平均日最低气温、平均日最高气温随时间的变化趋势特征。结果表明：长江流域近50年来年平均气温、年平均日最低气温、年平均日最高气温在20世纪50年代明显偏高,60~80年代波动下降,80年代中后期以后有所上升,90年代较80年代增温0.3℃~0.6℃之间;同时不同季节、不同区域气温呈现不同的态势,冬季平均气温、平均日最低气温在60年代以后呈上升趋势,而平均日最高气温呈下降趋势,夏季平均气温、平均日最低气温、平均日最高气温均以降温为主。     

铁路沿线可燃重气储罐最小隔离区域划分探讨*

为保护铁路线,以某化工厂距离高铁路线最近的丙烯球罐为例,提出丙烯球罐泄漏最小隔离区域划分方法以及2种保护高铁线路方案,利用重气扩散模型和定量风险评价（QRA）软件分别进行丙烯扩散模拟、爆炸模拟,并进行危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）和保护层分析（LOPA）。结果表明:球罐发生泄漏及火灾爆炸等事故,会给附近铁路线带来严重破坏;丙烯泄漏或球罐因周围其他设备设施或可燃物质着火而温度升高时,保护措施不足;隧道的安全可靠性要高于仅设1道防爆墙,隧道长度需覆盖最小隔离区域的可及范围,在扩散区域内也需设立普通挡墙,在极度危险情况下,需要实施高铁停开等保护措施。     

Modeling of air quality with a modified two-dimensional Eulerian model： A case study in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region of China

A modified two-dimensional Eulerian air quality model was used to simulate both the gaseous and particulate pollutant concentrations during October 21-24, 2004 in the Pearl River Delta （PRD） region, China. The most significant improvement to the model is the added capability to predict the secondary organic aerosols （SOA） concentrations because of the inclusion of the SOA formation chemistry. The meteorological input data were prepared using the CALMET meteorological model. The concentrations of aerosol-bound species such as NO3^-, NH4^＋, SO4^2-, and SOA were calculated in the fine particle size range （〈2.5 μm）. The results of the two-dimensional model were compared to the measurements at the ground level during the PRD Intensive Monitoring Campaign （IMC）. Overall, there were good agreements between the measured and modeled concentrations of inorganic aerosol components and O3. Both the measured and the modeled results indicated that the maximum hourly O3 concentrations exceeded the China National Air Quality Standard. The predicted 24-h average SOA concentrations were in reasonable agreement with those predicted by the method of minimum OC/EC ratio.