含未检出值的环境监测数据集的处理方法

环境样品分析过程中经常遇到包含未检出值的数据集,这在对含有微量金属和微量有机污染物样本的分析研究中更为常见.目前处理未检出数据的方法通常是忽略或者用0、检出下限的1/2或1/3进行简单替代.然而,当未检出数据比例较高时,忽略或简单替代可能给数据表征带来较大偏差,也不利于更深入的统计分析.为改善对包含未检出数据的分析效果,目前已经建立了多种统计方法.本文系统介绍了这些方法,包括总体均值和方差估计的参数和非参数方法以及关于均值的95%置信区间上界的估计方法.此外,本文利用虚拟数据和实测数据给出了主要方法的应用实例.     

Screening-Level Risk Assessment of Di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate for Aquatic Organisms Using Monitoring Data in Japan

Screening-level ecological risk assessments of di(2-ethylhexyl)phthalate (DEHP) for aquatic organisms in Japan were conducted using estimated statistical values based on surface water and sediment monitoring data and effect threshold values based on a large aquatic toxicity database. An alternative method is proposed to handle monitoring data that contain nondetects including multiple detection limits and to determine the statistical values of DEHP concentrations in Japanese surface waters. The No-Observed-Effect-Concentration (NOEC_water) of DEHP for aquatic life of 77 μ g/L was determined giving equal importance to both physical effects probably caused by undissolved DEHP and to the intrinsic toxicity potentially caused by DEHP. The NOEC_sediment of 615,000 μg/kg was determined by the Equilibrium Partitioning (EqP) theory, conservatively assuming a threshold effect level in the water column as the water solubility of 3 μ g/L. The potential risks of DEHP in Japanese water environments were characterized simply by comparing the margin of exposure (MOE) with a specified uncertainty multiplier (UM). The MOE is expressed as the ratio of NOEC_water or NOEC_sediment to the expected environmental concentrations such as the 95th percentiles of the estimated DEHP concentration distributions for surface water or sediment. The results of risk characterization show that all MOE values calculated using the statistical values of DEHP concentrations in Japanese surface waters and sediments are above 10, indicating minimal risk. Although the DEHP concentrations of some surface water samples showed MOE values of less than 10, considering environmental chemistry such as bioavailable fractions and the form of existence of DEHP in a water environment, we conclude that the current levels of DEHP are of little concern to aquatic life in the majority of Japanese surface waters and sediments.