The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Fires in Northern Taiga Larch Forests of Central Siberia

The periodicity of fires in larch forests of Evenkia and their relationship with landscape elements have been studied. Cross-sections with “burns” in them caused by past fires have been analyzed in 72 test plots; the fire chronology encompassed the period from the 15th to the 20th century. The between-fire intervals (BFIs) have been calculated by two methods: (I) on the basis of burns alone and (II) on the basis of burns and the start of growth of the new generation of larch after the earliest fire. The BFI depends on local orographic features; it is 86 ± 11 (105 ± 12), 61 ± 8 (73 ± 8), 139 ± 17 (138 ± 18), and 68 ± 14 (70 ± 13) years for northeastern slopes, southwestern slopes, bogs, and flatlands, respectively. The mean BFIs calculated by methods I and II are 82 ± 7 and 95 ± 7 years, respectively. The permafrost horizon rises at a mean rate of 0.3 cm per year after a forest fire. It has been shown that the number of fires regularly peaks at periods of 36 and 82 years. There is also a temporal trend in fire frequency: the mean BFI was approximately 100 years in the 19th century and 65 years in the 20th century.     

The use of ecological scales for indication of the current state of forest communities

A method for estimating the current state of plant communities based on the ecological amplitudes of constituent species is proposed. An original program, Fitoindikatsiya, has been developed to compute the indices of disturbance and homogeneity of plant communities from species ecological scale values. The current state of pine forests in the part of Novosibirsk oblast east of the Ob River has been analyzed; slightly, moderately, and severely disturbed zones have been distinguished.     

基于RF-LSTM的鸡舍恶臭气体预测研究

以鸡舍氨气为研究对象,对鸡舍氨气预测模型进行了研究.首先,利用随机森林算法（RF）对影响鸡舍氨气浓度的环境变量进行重要性排序,选取温度、湿度、光照、气象温度、降雨量作为模型的输入变量;在此基础上,构建了基于长短时记忆神经网络（LSTM）的鸡舍氨气浓度预测模型,并将提出的预测模型应用于江苏省宜兴市某养鸡场的氨气浓度预测中,并与LSTM模型、RF-Elman模型和RF-BP模型进行了对比实验,结果表明,基于RF-LSTM模型的预测效果最好,其平均绝对误差（MAE）、平均绝对百分误差（MAPE）和均方根误差（RMSE）分别为0.9183、4.9637%和1.4262;同时,为了验证该模型的性能,本文还实现了不同时间尺度的鸡舍氨气浓度预测,提前2h、3h、4h、5h氨气预测的平均绝对误差（MAE）分别为1.6218、2.1991、2.8553和3.0677.本文提出的预测模型提高了鸡舍氨气浓度的预测精度,可为减少鸡舍恶臭气体排放提供科学依据.     

随机振动响应峰值因子的预计理论研究

简要介绍了超越概率理论、超越频次理论、损伤等效理论和功率谱密度(PSD)的时域拟合理论等4种常见的峰值因子预计理论,并基于三角级数提出了一种新的预计理论。结合试飞加速度数据样本,对比分析超越频次理论、PSD时域拟合理论和三角级数理论的预估精度。研究表明,上述4种常见的预计理论本质上属于统计学理论;PSD时域拟合理论预计的峰值因子波动较大,峰值因子与归一化次数满足高斯分布;三角级数理论的预估精度较高,但缺乏离散峰个数的合理判据。     

Sulphate, Nitrogen and Base Cation Budgets at 21 Forested Catchments in Canada, the United States and Europe

To assess the concern over declining base cation levels in forest soils caused by acid deposition, input-output budgets (1990s average) for sulphate (SO₄), inorganic nitrogen (NO₃-N; NH₄-N), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K) were synthesised for 21 forested catchments from 17 regions in Canada, the United States and Europe. Trend analysis was conducted on monthly ion concentrations in deposition and runoff when more than 9 years of data were available (14 regions, 17 sites). Annual average SO₄ deposition during the 1990s ranged between 7.3 and 28.4 kg ha⁻¹ per year, and inorganic nitrogen (N) deposition was between 2.8 and 13.8 kg ha⁻¹ per year, of which 41–67% was nitrate (NO₃-N). Over the period of record, SO₄ concentration in deposition decreased in 13/14 (13 out of 14 total) regions and SO₄ in runoff decreased at 14/17 catchments. In contrast, NO₃-N concentrations in deposition decreased in only 1/14 regions, while NH₄-N concentration patterns varied; increasing at 3/14 regions and decreasing at 2/14 regions. Nitrate concentrations in runoff decreased at 4/17 catchments and increased at only 1 site, whereas runoff levels of NH₄-N increased at 5/17 catchments. Decreasing trends in deposition were also recorded for Ca, Mg, and K at many of the catchments and on an equivalent basis, accounted for up to 131% (median 22%) of the decrease in acid anion deposition. Base cation concentrations in streams generally declined over time, with significant decreases in Ca, Mg and K occurring at 8, 9 and 7 of 17 sites respectively, which accounted for up to 133% (median 48%) of the decrease in acid anion concentration. Sulphate export exceeded input at 18/21 catchments, likely due to dry deposition and/or internal sources. The majority of N in deposition (31–100%; median 94%) was retained in the catchments, although there was a tendency for greater NO₃-N leaching at sites receiving higher (<7 kg ha^-1 per year) bulk inorganic N deposition. Mass balance calculations show that export of Ca and Mg in runoff exceeds input at all 21 catchments, but K export only exceeds input at 16/21 sites. Estimates of base cation weathering were available for 18 sites. When included in the mass balance calculation, Ca, Mg and K exports exceeded inputs at 14, 10 and 2 sites respectively. Annual Ca and Mg losses represent appreciable proportions of the current exchangeable soil Ca and Mg pools, although losses at some of the sites likely occur from weathering reactions beneath the rooting zone and there is considerable uncertainty associated with mineral weathering estimates. Critical loads for sulphur (S) and N, using a critical base cation to aluminium ratio of 10 in soil solution, are currently exceeded at 7 of the 18 sites with base cation weathering estimates. Despite reductions in SO₄ and H⁺ deposition, mass balance estimates indicate that acid deposition continues to acidify soils in many regions with losses of Ca and Mg of primary concern. The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

森林合理年伐量分析确定方法研究

森林合理年伐分析确定是年森林采伐限额编制的关键技术之一,也是森林经理学的重要内容之一。本文从森林永续利用理论出发,以消长比度、成熟林采伐度、龄级结构改善度、流量均衡度、需要满足度５个指标建立了分析确定的综合评价模型,提出了森林合理年伐量分析确定的精确化方法,从而有效地保证了结果的科学性和准确性。     

Mitigation and adaptation synergy in forest sector

Mitigation and adaptation are the two main strategies to address climate change. Mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in the global negotiations as well as literature. There is a realization on the need to explore and promote synergy between mitigation and adaptation while addressing climate change. In this paper, an attempt is made to explore the synergy between mitigation and adaptation by considering forest sector, which on the one hand is projected to be adversely impacted under the projected climate change scenarios and on the other provide opportunities to mitigate climate change. Thus, the potential and need for incorporating adaptation strategies and practices in mitigation projects is presented with a few examples. Firstly, there is a need to ensure that mitigation programs or projects do not increase the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and plantations. Secondly, several adaptation practices could be incorporated into mitigation projects to reduce vulnerability. Further, many of the mitigation projects indeed reduce vulnerability and promote adaptation, for example; forest and biodiversity conservation, protected area management and sustainable forestry. Also, many adaptation options such as urban forestry, soil and water conservation and drought resistant varieties also contribute to mitigation of climate change. Thus, there is need for research and field demonstration of synergy between mitigation and adaptation, so that the cost of addressing climate change impacts can be reduced and co-benefits increased.     

建筑物尾流区气流与污染物扩散的数值计算

采用了细网格非静力能量闭合边界层模式和随机游动模拟方法建立了一套分析建筑物尾流流场和污染物扩散的数值模拟系统．作为应用研究的例子，在对某城市地下交通隧道排废气的风井塔尾流区流场和浓度场进行风洞流体物理实验的基础上，利用所建的模拟系统对风井塔尾流区气流和污染物扩散特征进行研究．结果表明，所建的模拟系统的模拟结果与风洞试验的结果吻合较好，对一些小尺度带有明显湍流不均匀性的流场和局地空气污染物散布的情况有较好的模拟效果和良好的应用前景．     

Random walk modeling of wake dispersion for the exhaust tower of an underground tunnel in urban area

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