洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

核算间接冷却水污染当量数的研讨

针对间接冷却水的特点和核算其污染当量数过程中存在的问题，阐述了间接冷却水的界定，水源水的采样监测技术，本底值的扣除以及超标排放的判别等环节的技术要求和注意事项，并就与之密切相关的几个问题展开了讨论,为核算间接冷却水当量数提供了一定的参考依据，建议增加水湿排放指标，以切实控制间接冷却水造成的主要污染－热污染。     

Perceptions toward stewardship among residents living near U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

Water Quality Evaluation and Trend Analysis in Selected Watersheds of the Atlantic Region of Canada

Water quality indices (WQIs) have been developed to assess the suitability of water for a variety of uses. These indices reflect the status of water quality in lakes, streams, rivers, and reservoirs. The concept of WQIs is based on a comparison of the concentration of contaminants with the respective environmental standards. The number, frequency, and magnitude by which the environmental standards for specific variables are not met in a given time period are reflected in WQIs. Further, the water quality trend analysis predicts the behavior of the water quality parameters and overall water quality in the time domain. In this paper, the concept of WQI was applied to three selected watersheds of Atlantic region: the Mersey River, the Point Wolfe River, and the Dunk River sites. To have robust study, two different water quality indices are used: Canadian Water Quality Index (CWQI), and British Columbia Water Quality Index (BWQI). The complete study was conducted in two steps. The first step was to organize and process the data into a format compatible with WQI analysis. After processing the input data, the WQI was calculated. The second step outlined in the paper discusses detailed trend analysis using linear and quadratic models for all the three sites. As per the 25 years trend analysis, overall water quality for agriculture use observed an improving trend at all the three sites studied. Water quality for raw water used for drinking (prior to treatment) and aquatic uses has shown improving trend at Point Wolfe River. It is further observed that pH, SO₄, and NO₃ concentrations are improving at Dunk River, Mersey River, and Point Wolfe River sites. To ascertain the reliability and significance of the trend analysis, a detailed error analysis and parametric significance tests were also conducted It was observed that for most of the sites and water uses quadratic trend models were a better fit than the linear models.     

Trihalomethanes in Drinking Water of Greater Québec Region (Canada): Occurrence, Variations and Modelling

The levels of trihalomethanes (THMs) – the main species of by-product from water chlorination – were monitored in thedistribution systems of the five major drinking water utilitiesof the greater area of Québec City in order to investigate andmodel their occurrence on a spatial and seasonal basis. Data forTHMs and other water quality and operational parametersassociated with their formation were generated through a 16 monthsampling program involving several sites representing variablewater residence times, from the plant to the system extremity.The results demonstrate that the differences in measured THMlevels between the five utilities are mainly due to the variablequality of raw waters, the type of water treatment process beingused and the type and levels of applied disinfectant. Dependingon the utility, average THM levels were from 1.3 to 2.5 timeshigher in the system extremities than in the water leaving thetreatment plant. Also, average levels of THMs measured in summerat the distribution system extremities were, depending on theutility, from 2.5 to 5 times higher than the average levelsmeasured in winter. The seasonal differences were found to besignificantly greater than those observed by others in waterutilities in the United States and Europe and are explained inlarge part by the considerable changes, over the year, in thequality and temperature of surface waters in Southern Québec. Forthe five utilities under study, multivariate regression modelswere developed in order to predict spatial and seasonalvariations of THMs. Both residual chlorine demand and temperaturewere found to be better, statistically, as predictors for THMoccurrence. The usefulness of the developed models for routineand long term water quality management, as well as for assessmentof human exposure to THMs, are also discussed.     

Linking Land Cover and Water Quality in New York City’S Water Supply Watersheds

The Catskill/Delaware reservoirs supply 90% of New York City’s drinking water. The City has implemented a series of watershed protection measures, including land acquisition, aimed at preserving water quality in the Catskill/Delaware watersheds. The objective of this study was to examine how relationships between landscape and surface water measurements change between years. Thirty-two drainage areas delineated from surface water sample points (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations) were used in step-wise regression analyses to test landscape and surface-water quality relationships. Two measurements of land use, percent agriculture and percent urban development, were positively related to water quality and consistently present in all regression models. Together these two land uses explained 25 to 75% of the regression model variation. However, the contribution of agriculture to water quality condition showed a decreasing trend with time as overall agricultural land cover decreased. Results from this study demonstrate that relationships between land cover and surface water concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria counts over a large area can be evaluated using a relatively simple geographic information system method. Land managers may find this method useful for targeting resources in relation to a particular water quality concern, focusing best management efforts, and maximizing benefits to water quality with minimal costs.The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and managed the research described here. It has been subjected to Agency’s administrative review and approved for publication as an EPA document.     

Evaluation of Water Quality in the Chillán River (Central Chile) Using Physicochemical Parameters and a Modified Water Quality Index

The Chillán River in Central Chile plays a fundamental role in local society, as a source of irrigation and drinking water, and as a sink for urban wastewater. In order to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of surface water quality in the watershed, a Water Quality Index (WQI) was calculated from nine physicochemical parameters, periodically measured at 18 sampling sites (January–November 2000). The results indicated a good water quality in the upper and middle parts of the watershed. Downstream of the City of Chillán, water quality conditions were critical during the dry season, mainly due to the effects of the urban wastewater discharge. On the basis of the results from a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), modifications were introduced into the original WQI to reduce the costs associated with its implementation. WQI_DIR2 and WQI_DIR, which are both based on a laboratory analysis (Chemical Oxygen Demand) and three (pH, temperature and conductivity), respectively, four field measurements (pH, temperature, conductivity and Dissolved Oxygen), adequately reproduce the most important spatial and temporal variations observed with the original index. They are proposed as useful tools for monitoring global water quality trends in this and other, similar agricultural watersheds in the Chilean Central Valley. Possibilities and limitations for the application of the used methodology to watersheds in other parts of the world are discussed.     

平顶山市湛河水污染现状及防治对策

以“九五”期间平顶山市湛河水质例行监测结果为依据，分析了湛河水污染现状、特征及原因，并提出综合性湛河污染防治对策。     

An Evaluation of Selenium Concentrations in Water, Sediment, Invertebrates, and Fish from the Republican River Basin: 1997–1999

The Republican River Basin of Colorado,Nebraska, and Kansas lies in a valley which contains PierreShale as part of its geological substrata. Selenium is anindigenous constituent in the shale and is readily leached intosurrounding groundwater. The Basin is heavily irrigated throughthe pumping of groundwater, some of which is selenium-contaminated, onto fields in agricultural production. Water,sediment, benthic invertebrates, and/or fish were collected from46 sites in the Basin and were analyzed for selenium to determinethe potential for food-chain bioaccumulation, dietary toxicity,and reproductive effects of selenium in biota. Resultingselenium concentrations were compared to published guidelines orbiological effects thresholds. Water from 38% of the sites (n = 18) contained selenium concentrations exceeding 5 g L^-1, which is reported to be a high hazard for selenium accumulation into the planktonic food chain. An additional 12 sites (26% of the sites) contained selenium in water between 3–5 g L^-1, constituting a moderate hazard. Selenium concentrations in sedimentindicated little to no hazard for selenium accumulation fromsediments into the benthic food chain. Ninety-five percent ofbenthic invertebrates collected exhibited selenium concentrationsexceeding 3 g g^-1, a level reported as potentially lethal to fish and birds that consume them. Seventy-five percent of fish collected in 1997, 90% in 1998, and 64% in 1999 exceeded 4 g g^-1selenium, indicating a high potential for toxicity andreproductive effects. However, examination of weight profilesof various species of collected individual fish suggestedsuccessful recruitment in spite of selenium concentrations thatexceeded published biological effects thresholds for health andreproductive success. This finding suggested that universalapplication of published guidelines for selenium may beinappropriate or at least may need refinement for systems similarto the Republican River Basin. Additional research is needed todetermine the true impact of selenium on fish and wildliferesources in the Basin.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.