Assessing Spatial, Temporal, and Analytical Variation of Groundwater Chemistry in a Large Nuclear Complex, USA

Statistical analyses were applied at the Hanford Site, USA, to assess groundwater contamination problems that included (1) determining local backgrounds to ascertain whether a facility is affecting the groundwater quality and (2) determining a ‘pre-Hanford' groundwater background to allow formulation of background-based cleanup standards. The primary purpose of this paper is to extend the random effects models for (1) assessing the spatial, temporal, and analytical variability of groundwater background measurements; (2) demonstrating that the usual variance estimate s ², which ignores the variance components, is a biased estimator; (3) providing formulas for calculating the amount of bias; and (4) recommending monitoring strategies to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background concentrations. A case study is provided. Results indicate that (1) without considering spatial and temporal variability, there is a high probability of false positives, resulting in unnecessary remediation and/or monitoring expenses; (2) the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background, and enhance the power of the statistical tests in general, is to increase the number of background wells; and (3) background for a specific constituent should be considered as a statistical distribution, not as a single value or threshold. The methods and the related analysis of variance tables discussed in this paper can be used as diagnostic tools in documenting the extent of inherent spatial and/or temporal variation and to help select an appropriate statistical method for testing purposes.     

An experimental study on the effect of mobile phone conversation on drivers' reaction time in braking response

Introduction

This paper presents an experimental study in which the effect of three factors (distance between cars, mobile call duration, and time of driving (day or night)) on drivers' reaction time in braking response was investigated.

Methods

The experiment was performed in a real driving environment in which 27 male adults between the ages of 22 and 24 years participated. Three levels of the first two factors (i.e., distance between cars and call duration) and two levels of the last factor (i.e., time of driving) were selected to conduct the experimental study. A full factorial design of experiment with 18 treatment combinations and three replicates of each combination were used. Fifty-four trial runs were performed in a random manner and for each run drivers' reaction time in braking response was measured, which served the data for further analysis. Analysis of variance (ANOVA), interaction effect analysis, and various model adequacy tests were carried out using Design Expert software.

Results

The results of the study indicated that the most important factor affecting the drivers' reaction time in car braking response was the mobile call duration followed by the time of driving, with a high level of interaction between the two factors. It was also found that the distance between cars did not seem to have a significant effect on the reaction time in braking response. It is to be noted that these response times are expected to be higher under normal driving conditions where awareness of experimental environment is not present.

Impact on Industry

The findings of this study would help mobile phone industries in improving safety of mobile phone users in driving environment.     

Long-Term Relationship between Phosphorus Inputs and Wetland Phosphorus Concentrations in a Northern Everglades Marsh

Assessments of long-term relationships between changes innutrient inputs and wetland nutrient concentrations can becomplicated by fluctuations in other environmental factors aswell as by problems typical of long-term monitoring data.Consequently, statistical analysisof these types of data sets requirescareful consideration of environmental covariates, potentialbiases in the monitoring design, and irregularities caused bychanges in field sampling protocols. We evaluated therelationship between anthropogenic phosphorus (P) inputs andwater-column total P (TP) concentrations in a northernEverglades marsh by statistically analyzing available datacollected from several sampling programs over the past 20 years(1978–1997). Canal inputs of agricultural runoff contributemost of the P to the marsh and have produced a zone ofenrichment within the marsh during the past few decades.Regression analyses showed that both canal and marsh TPconcentrations increased during the 1980s and then decreased inthe 1990s. However, the statistical relationship between canal Pinputs and marsh TP, while significant, generally was weakexcept for marsh locations adjacent to the canal. Strongerrelationships existed between marsh TP and hydrologic parameterssuch as marsh water depth, which is controlled by changes inweather patterns and marsh management. In particular, dryconditions during the 1980s may have contributed to observedincreases in marsh P concentrations and the movement of a P`front' further into the marsh. Higher rainfall and water depthsand agricultural best management programs initiated during the1990s have been associated with reduced P concentrations incanal waters entering the marsh. While it is anticipated thatthis reduction eventually will result in lower marsh TPconcentrations, this effect is not yet evident, possibly due tointernal loading of P from enriched marsh soils. Our findingsillustrate some of the environmental factors that can complicateattempts to develop empirical relationships between P inputs andwetland P concentrations and to use such relationships to forecast changesin marsh concentrations based on past monitoring data alone.     

一种赤腹松鼠种群数量的估计方法

赤腹松鼠剥食树皮的行为对林木危害严重,根据野外长期的观察和研究发现,赤腹松鼠在剥落树皮上遗留下来的上门齿齿印间距具有个体差异,可以用作个体识别的依据.对2003年监测样地内赤腹松鼠在剥落树皮上的齿印间距测量记录,并统计分析以估计赤腹松鼠的个体数量.结果表明:种群数量与危害率的相关系数为0.876,P=0.01,表现出很强的正相关关系;显示在较小面积内,该方法可以用来估计赤腹松鼠的个体数量.同时对该方法的基本条件和局限进行了讨论.图2表4参10     

不同抗生素种类及浓度对麻疯树培养的影响

以麻疯树(jatropha ctrcas)的子叶、真叶、根及其对应的愈伤组织作为实验材料,研究各种抗生素对其生长的影响;在MS培养基中添加不同浓度和不同种类的抗生素,比较其对麻疯树不同外植体及对应愈伤组织生长的影响.方差分析和总体观察的结果表明,用于筛选转化植株的最佳抗生素是卡那霉素,其最佳抗性筛选浓度范围为10～25mg/L.表9参10     

敦煌地区太阳紫外辐射占总辐射的百分比

目的估算敦煌地区太阳紫外辐射量,为高分子材料及产品在该地区的老化试验与评估提供参考。方法利用2016年敦煌试验站紫外辐射和总辐射的实测数据,讨论紫总百分比的计算方法、日出日落初期紫总百分比的处理,采用方差分析研究敦煌紫总百分比随季节、时段的变化特征,给出敦煌地区四季及全年的紫总百分比平均值和标准差。结果日出日落初期,紫总百分比很大,计算方法、异常数据的判定与处理对紫总百分比的计算结果会产生较大的误差。太阳高度角较小是导致敦煌不同时段太阳紫总百分比明显不同的主要原因,夏季降雨较多是敦煌不同季节太阳紫总百分比明显不同的主要原因。结论日出日落初期紫总百分比应作为异常数据剔除,冬季紫总百分比最高、夏季最低,春秋二季相近,介于冬、夏季之间,中下午时段的紫总百分比高于上午和傍晚。敦煌地区紫总百分比年平均值、标准差分别为5.5%、1.3%。     

华东地区公众低碳意识及其影响因素分析研究

基于安吉县、临安市、杭州市和上海市4个地区公众低碳意识的调研数据,对不同性别、不同年龄、不同学历、不同月收入水平和不同居住地公众的低碳意识(低碳认知、低碳消费、低碳践行、低碳责任)进行了单因素方差分析,在此基础上,利用广义线性模型(GLM)对影响公众低碳意识的因素进行了实证分析.分析结果表明,公众的学历和居住地对公众低碳意识有显著的影响.基于分析结果,最后提出增强公众低碳意识、促进社会低碳发展的建议.     

A statistical evaluation of the geogenic controls on indoor radon concentrations and radon risk

ANOVA is used to show that approximately 25% of the total variation of indoor radon concentrations in England and Wales can be explained by the mapped bedrock and superficial geology. The proportion of the total variation explained by geology is higher (up to 37%) in areas where there is strong contrast between the radon potential of sedimentary geological units and lower (14%) where the influence of confounding geological controls, such as uranium mineralisation, cut across mapped geological boundaries. When indoor radon measurements are grouped by geology and 1-km squares of the national grid, the cumulative percentage of the variation between and within mapped geological units is shown to be 34-40%. The proportion of the variation that can be attributed to mapped geological units increases with the level of detail of the digital geological data. This study confirms the importance of radon maps that show the variation of indoor radon concentrations both between and within mapped geological boundaries.     

Aerial Monitoring of Marine Waterfowl in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea

The purpose of this study was to design and test a monitoring protocol for marine waterfowl in the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea. The study provides an important case-study of how a long-term monitoring program may be affected by unanticipated human disturbances.Because of its overwhelming and widespread abundance, relatively sedentary behavior, ease in counting, and the extensive historical database, the long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis) was selected as the focal species. Two null hypotheses were formulated concerning potential changes in the numbers and distribution of long-tailed ducks in relation to disturbance in an industrial study area, compared to a reference study area located about 50 km to the east.A 9-year historical database (1977–1984, 1989) of long-tailed duck densities and other important data recorded during systematic aerial surveys was analyzed retrospectively using multiple regression techniques. The retrospective analyses determined which of several predictor variables recorded were significantly related to long-tailed duck density. Separate analyses were conducted for two periods: (1) the overall period when long-tailed ducks were present in the lagoon study areas, and (2) the shorter adult male molt period. The results of the two analyses indicated that 57% and 68%, respectively, of the total variation in long-tailed duck density during the two periods could be explained by variables recorded during the surveys. Predictor variables representing habitat, day of the year, time of day, amount of ice, and wave height recorded on-transect during surveys were most closely associated with long-tailed duck density. Measurement error during the surveys, and influences outside the study area such as nesting success in tundra habitats and mortality during migration and in over-wintering areas likely also had strong influences on the results, but these factors were not measurable in our study.Based on results of the retrospective analyses, a long-term monitoring protocol consisting of a program of systematic aerial surveys and an analyses of variance and covariance (ANOVA and ANCOVA) statistical procedure was designed and initially tested in 1990 and 1991. This 2-year testing phase resulted in several revisions to the monitoring protocol. Refinements were made to the original sampling procedures, to the survey schedule, and to the recommended statistical analysis procedures. Results of the ANOVA and ANCOVA indicated that there was no evidence of a change in long-tailed duck densities that could be attributable to disturbance (from any source) in the industrial study area relative to a reference area with no industrial development. Other analyses indicated that the sampling and analysis procedures would be adequate to detect long-term trends in long-tailed duck density and localized disturbance effects, but that the monitoring program should be continued well beyond two years to detect statistically significant changes. As a result, additional aerial surveys of both study areas were conducted again during 1999–2001.Results of the revised ANOVA and ANCOVA of the 1990–1991 and 1999–2001 survey data indicated that the density of long-tailed ducks had significantly declined in coastal lagoons along the central Alaskan Beaufort Sea coast during the study period. In addition, disturbances throughout the barrier island-lagoon systems used by these ducks, including both the industrial and the reference study areas, had significantly increased over the same period. However, because unanticipated disturbances from a variety of anthropogenic sources, and not just industry sources, increased in both study areas, the reference study area was not an effective statistical control. As a result, the decline in long-tailed duck density in both study areas was not attributable to industry-related activities. Although the monitoring protocol described here is an effective method to detect statistically significant changes in long-tailed duck distribution and abundance in the nearshore Alaskan Beaufort Sea, many more years of sampling would be necessary to attribute observed changes to industry-related disturbances.