Validation of the CANDY model with Russian long-term experiments

The CANDY model has been qualitatively assessed for simulating long-term dynamics of soil organic carbon and tested against different long-term experiments representing various land uses and geographical sites, but never before against conditions of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Our goal was to simulate long-term trends in soil organic carbon for the long-term experiments of Barybino (Moscow region, Russia), Grakov (Kharkow region, Ukraine) and Yachenka (Minsk region, Belarus) representing the predominant arable soil types, climate conditions and typical management strategies for the investigated arable areas. The fit of modelled results to the observed data was evaluated to assess the suitability of the model for further applications in the FSU. The crop parameters of the CANDY model had to be adapted to the low yields observed under the Russian site conditions resulting in a higher sensitivity to crop-derived carbon input as a function of yield. The results show that the approach of treating the organic carbon situated in micro pores as inert, is an applicable solution for simulating soil carbon dynamics under Russian conditions. This evaluation of CANDY, against long-term experiments from Russia, gives confidence for its wider application in this region.     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.