Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

节水灌溉措施下湘东北丘陵林-稻汇水区复合系统铅的迁移

铅通过食物链的迁移和积累对人类健康的毒害作用日益为社会所重视,而水稻是人类铅摄入的主要途径之一,因此,对稻田土壤铅的迁入途径及其过程特征的研究十分必要.为了探明湖南地区远离城镇、工矿区的丘陵稻区铅的输入、迁移、滞留机制,选择位于湘东北地域的汩罗市桃林林场的林地-山塘-稻田汇水区系统作为研究对象,在水稻大田生长期间,原位研究其大气沉降、岗地径流、山塘水、稻田水、水稻生长等过程的铅通量.结果表明：①输入系统的铅源是大气沉降,其中,在水稻生育前期通过东南季风输入的区域外源铅占90%;②山塘是大气沉降铅的主要集纳地貌单元,存留了大气沉降输入岗地和山塘总铅的66%;③林-稻汇水区系统岗地铅净留存28.8~57.7 g·hm^-2,山塘铅净留存604.3~961.9 g·hm^-2,稻田铅净留存89.6~90.9 g·hm^-2;而对照系统岗地铅净输出173.3 g·hm^-2,山塘净留存3427.6 g·hm^-2,稻田净留存87.1 g·hm^-2;④岗地和山塘对铅的截留量能够互补;⑤从岗地通过径流-山塘水过程迁移到稻田的大分子有机物能够增强稻田对铅的截留.综上所述,丘陵林-稻汇水区系统中铅的循环与大气沉降有关,系统内岗地森林类型、郁闭度、降水产流及泥沙、有机物的输出都会影响铅在系统中的迁移和分配.     

基于SOM-SVM组合分类器的涂层防护性能研究

目的为避免EIS,EN技术可能出现的问题,建立一个准确、高效的评价模型,以探究现役军用有机涂层防护性能。方法利用电化学阻抗谱(EIS)、电化学噪声(EN)技术分析了两种军车有机涂层在循环暴露试验中的腐蚀行为,提取低频阻抗模值|Z|_(0.1 Hz)与涂层噪声电阻R_n两种电化学评价参数作为自组织神经网络(SOM)的输入训练样本,同时结合支持向量机(SVM)方法建立涂层防护性能组合分类器。结果将涂层失效过程自适应地分为涂层防护性能良好、防护性能下降、基本失效三个阶段。结论所建立的SOM-SVM组合分类器对于辅助分析涂层防护性能具有可行性。     

A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.     

Land User Participation in Developing a Computerised Decision Support System for Combating Desertification

Combating desertification in natural rangelands has recently become a priority in large parts of southern Africa. Rangeland managers, farmers, scientists, conservationists and land users have been applying a variety of restoration technologies to address this problem. Bush encroachment, as part of the desertification process, involves the natural replacement of the herbaceous plant cover by undesirable problem woody species. The active and passive restoration technologies that are applied, are mainly based on indigenous knowledge and include the chemical, mechanical or manual reclamation of unproductive rangelands, as well as the combating of woody and alien species encroachment. Indigenous practices and knowledge play a major role in the effectiveness and success rate of these technologies. This project faces the challenge of bringing together both local and scientific knowledge in a single user-friendly, computerised Decision Support System (DSS) which is directly accessible by land users to support them in the process of decision making, concerning the combating of desertification. Case studies from central and northern Namibia were used to combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop this Decision Support System. The DSS currently consists of two databases and an expert system, which evaluates the results of land users’ management practices, and provides easily accessible information and advice for participants in the system, based on the incorporated data. The DSS is also linked to national and international web sites and databases to offer a wider range of information on technologies concerning agricultural and conservation practices.     

灰色系统决策与环境投资项目优化选择

根据环境投资项目方案优选所具有的灰色特性．将灰色系统决策法用于此优选过程．经实例分析表明，灰色系统决策原理简单、计算方便、赋权合理、精确度高、决策结果符合客观实际．     

基于AHP-MF模型的用户群节水指标体系研究

从分析影响用户群节水的因素及其构成关系入手,根据专家长期节水工作的经验,利用层次分析法对用户群节水指标进行优选,并提出全面的定量化和定性化的层次结构评价模式和总体评价方法.首先构建用户群节水的层次分析结构模型及判断矩阵,应用Matlab6.5计算出各判断矩阵的最大特征值及其特征向量,并检验判断矩阵的一致性,继而确定出各指标的权重;其次,应用Fuzzy统计的方法对陕西2006年度高校用户群的节水情况进行评价,并为节水工作提供建设性意见.     

Decision making during the prenatal diagnostic procedure. A questionnaire and interview study of 211 women participating in prenatal diagnosis

Counselling in connection with prenatal diagnosis (PND) is a common task for the obstetrician and the midwife. However, the decision making processes of pregnant women are not completely known, for instance, the questions of women's autonomy, the decision on how to act in the case of an abnormal test, and the partner's participation in the decision. A questionnaire and interview study was carried out among 211 women undergoing PND by amniocentesis or chorionic villus biopsy. Most women in the sample indicated that PND was completely voluntary. However, at the same time almost every woman reported that it was difficult to decline from PND when offered. Even before the visit to register at the antenatal clinic, most of the women (83 per cent) had made up their minds to have PND. At the time of the test, many of the participants (62 per cent) had decided in favour of a legal abortion if the test indicated an abnormality in the fetus. At the same time, however, the data indicate a need for reflection and ambivalence, which the medical staff have to accept. In the questionnaire most of the women stated that they and their partners had similar attitudes towards PND, but when interviewed 38 per cent of the women admitted some differences between their own attitudes and their partners'. Although some women reported considerable deliberation and ambivalence, most of them said that they would undergo PND in another pregnancy.     

UV-B辐射对小麦叶抗氧化系统的影响

研究了温室种植的小麦在０（ＣＫ）、８．８２ｋＪ／ｍ＾２（Ｔ１）和１２．６ｋＪ／ｍ＾２（Ｔ２）三种剂量的紫外线Ｂ（ＵＶ－Ｂ）辐射下抗氧化系统的变化及其原因。ＵＶ－Ｂ辐射诱导了Ｈ２Ｏ２的合成，还原型抗坏血酸和还原型谷胱甘肽含量的增加、过氧化氢酶、愈创木酚过氧化物酶、抗坏血酸过氧化物酶和谷胱甘肽还原酶活性升高，而类胡萝卜素稍有所降低、超氧歧化酶（ＳＯＤ）活几乎不受ＵＶ－Ｂ辐射影响，分析表明，ＵＶ－Ｂ辐射