基于参与式社区评估法的泾河流域景观管理问题分析

参与式社区评估法既兼顾了景观管理中的地理变量,同时还将社会经济因素纳入了考虑范畴,是深入进行问题分析客观有效的方法之一。本文采用参与式社区评估法,运用问题矩阵和问题树分析,对泾河流域景观管理中存在的问题和利益相关者的认知进行了分析。研究发现,绝大多数利益相关者认为土壤侵蚀已成为第一严重的问题,其次是土地生产力低下、自然灾害、植被破坏等。尽管当地公众已经认识到了土壤侵蚀的严重危害,但在安排土地利用方式时,却很少考虑土壤侵蚀带来的危害,仍然从事着自给自足的粮食生产活动。     

Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development

The current risk management approach for the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry came into effect in 2001 and has been stable with minor changes for 15 years. Relatively few new installations were slated for development until quite recently, and several new projects have been started in the last few years. The paper considers the risk management approach in the pre-FEED phase and builds on two case studies selected from the most recent cases. These case studies have been evaluated with respect to how uncertainties are considered in the early phase, based on the submission of the Plan for Development and Operation, their evaluations by authorities and the supporting documents. Both case studies involve new concepts for which there is no experience from similar environments and/or water depths. In spite of what could have been expected, the case studies conclude that uncertainties have not been in focus at all during concept development. This appears to be definitely the case for the licensees, but also to be the case for the authorities. Some suggestions are presented for what could have been considered by the licensees and authorities.     

PRA浓度和显色温度对West—Gaeke法测定SO2的回归斜率和空白值的影响

试验研究表明，Ｗｅｓｔ－Ｇａｅｋｅ法制定大气ＳＯ２，空白试验值不仅随显色温度增高而增高，而且随ＰＲＡ浓度增高而增高。尤其，在２０±２℃时，ＰＲＡ浓度＞０．０１６％时，校准曲线斜率比方法规定值偏高；称取ＰＲＡ０．１００ｇ提纯后使用，在３０℃时，回归斜率比方法规定值偏低。本文提出了对方法的补充意见。     

Application of probabilistic risk assessment at a coking plant site contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment （PRA） and Deterministic Risk Assessment （DRA） at a coking plant site was compared. By DRA, Hazard Quotient （HQ） following exposure to Naphthalene （Nap） and Incremental Life Cancer Risk （ILCR） following exposure to Benzo（a）pyrene （Bap） were 1.87 and 2.12 × 104. PRA revealed valuable information regarding the possible distribution of risk, and risk estimates of DRA located at the 99.59th and 99.76th percentiles in the risk outputs of PRA, which indicated that DRA overestimated the risk. Cleanup levels corresponding acceptable HQ level of 1 and ILCR level of 104 were also calculated for both DRA and PRA. Nap and Bap cleanup levels were 192.85 and 0.14mg.kg-1 by DRA, which would result in only 0.25% and 0.06% of the exposed population to have a risk higher than the acceptable risk, according to the outputs of PRA. The application of PRA on cleanup levels derivation would lift the cleanup levels 1.9 times for Nap and 2.4 times for Bap than which derived by DRA. For this coking plant site, the remediation scale and cost will be reduced in a large portion once the method of PRA is used. Sensitivity analysis was done by calculating the contribution to variance for each exposure parameter and it was found that contaminant concentration in the soil （Cs）, exposure duration （ED）, total hours spent outdoor per day （ETout）, soil ingestion rate （IRs）, the air breathing rate （IRa） and bodyweight （BW） were the most important parameters for risk and cleanup levels calculations.     

中国主要河流中硝基苯生态风险研究

基于文献报道的中国主要河流中硝基苯(NB)的浓度数据,结合USEPA毒性数据库中NB对水生生物的毒性数据,运用商值法和概率风险评价法对中国主要河流中NB的水生生态风险进行评价分析.结果表明,中国主要河流中NB的潜在生态风险相对较小:风险熵(HQ)均<1,极端情况(环境中最大暴露浓度)下,影响1%和5%的水生生物的概率分别为1.49%和0.22%.然而,按照我国污水综合排放标准中硝基苯类的一级、二级、三级最高允许排放标准,将分别有35.57%、48.38%和64.59%的生物受到影响.     

尚勇自然保护区周边地区社会经济现状及可持续发展对策

采用多种调查技术与方法 ,对尚勇自然保护区周边地区社会经济现状进行分析。该区存在群众文化素质偏低 ,医疗卫生状况较差 ,农业生产方式落后 ,保护区管理缺乏群众参与 ,保护区管理部门与周边乡村关系不够融洽等问题。针对这些问题 ,相应地提出了社区社会经济可持续发展的一系列对策     

PRA和GIS在小尺度土地利用变化研究中的应用

论文借助PRA,结合实地测量和GIS,以宁夏南部山区的上黄村为例对小尺度区域的土地利用变化进行了初步研究。重建和恢复了其25年来各时期的土地利用过程,绘制了上黄试区不同时期的土地利用空间变化图,并对其土地利用的数量及空间变化进行了分析。结果表明:在研究期内,从数量上看,耕地和林地变化最为显著,年变化率分别达到了8.0%和9.2%;从空间分布变化来看,主要表现为耕地向林地、草地及园地转变。     

民勤盆地沙漠化、贫困化与水资源开发利用

以3S技术与PR A工具,通过对民勤盆地水资源状况的变化与沙漠化、贫困化发生发展规律对比研究,表明自然条件恶劣、基础设施弱是沙漠化、贫困化产生的内在因素,而人类活动则是强大的驱动力。石羊河流域武威盆地不合理的水资源利用造成进入民勤盆地水量日益减少,从20世纪50-70年代的4×108～6×108m 3下降到目前的0.5×108m 3,民勤盆地内大规模开采地下水导致水位下降达30m,同时造成地下水水质恶化、植被退化与沙漠化。沙漠化导致了贫困,贫困反过来加剧沙漠化,两者不断恶性循环。为此,要加强流域内水资源管理,严禁超采地下水;以“退耕还林,种草养畜”为出发点促进流域产业结构调整和节水;加大资金投入和科技扶贫,实现可持续发展。     

基于PRA方法的社区居民对湿地生态系统稳定性及退耕政策的认知分析

采用参与性农户评估方法（PRA）,对黑龙江省洪河农场135户居民进行随机访问,调查其对湿地生态系统稳定性和退耕政策的认知程度,以期从农户角度出发,探讨湿地生态系统稳定性对居民生产生活的影响以及退耕政策实施的可行性,为湿地保护和利用政策的制定和实施提供理论依据。研究显示：86.7%居民认为湿地生态环境功能重要,生态环境意识较高。对比10年前的生态环境,认为生态环境现状恶化的居民比例（48.1%）略高于好转的居民比例（43.0%）。近80%居民对湿地生态系统稳定性有所了解,且认为现有湿地存在稳定性低,易退化的问题。绝大多数居民对退耕政策了解并支持该政策的实施,认为有利于维护当地生态环境,保护湿地资源,促进经济协调发展;但对于政策实施中遇到的资金、技术等问题尚存疑虑。此外,退耕后的补偿与替代生计选择也是居民普遍反映的问题之一。     

Measurement techniques for organizational safety causal models: Characterization and suggestions for enhancements

Through a review of literature from diverse disciplines with actual and potential application to causal modeling of organizational safety risk, this paper explores issues regarding measurement techniques in a quantitative safety analysis context. The interdependencies of modeling perspectives, constructs, and measures are indentified, leading to (a) characterization and classification of measurement techniques, (b) suggestions on the selection of appropriate measurement methods for different types of model constructs including individual-level, global, configural, and shared, and (c) discussion of the modeling implications of interactions between measurement, constructs, and causal paths. A multi-dimensional perspective is offered through combinations of different “measurement methods” and “measurement bases”. A Bayesian approach is also proposed to operationalize the multi-dimensional measurements. Examples are provided to help explain the roles of these measurements in capturing the relation between organizational factors and safety performance. This paper is a product of research which has the primary purpose of extending Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling frameworks to include the effects of organizational factors as the fundamental causes of accidents and incidents.