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1.
This paper presents development of a first approximation of a Namibian, national level, land degradation monitoring system.
The process involved a large number of stakeholders and led to the definition of four primary indicators that were regarded
as related to land degradation in Namibia: population pressure, livestock pressure, seasonal rainfall and erosion hazards.
These indicators were calculated annually for the period 1971–1997. Annual land degradation risk maps were produced for the
same period by combining the indicators. A time series analysis of results generated by indicators was undertaken at two sites.
The analysis revealed a general trend towards an increased land degradation risk over the period 1971–1997. A decrease in
annual rainfall and an increase in livestock numbers caused this negative trend at one site, while decreased annual rainfall
and increased human population were the causes at a second site. Evaluation of resulting maps through direct field observations
and long-term monitoring at selected study sites with different conditions relevant for the indicators defined, is an essential
next step. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT: The time to hydrograph peak of a watershed basin has been found to correlate with various statistical attributes (e.g., skewness and kurtosis) of its hypsometric curve (treated as probability distribution). This paper presents a theoretical travel time that is conceptually analogous to the time to hydrograph peak and can be calculated directly from the hypsometric curve of a watershed basin based on gravity and acceleration. The theoretical travel times for 23 selected watersheds in the United States are found to correlate significantly with their corresponding hypsometric attributes. In addition, the theoretical travel times are consistent with the times of concentration estimated from the Federal Aviation Administration method. Thus, this paper offers a simple theoretical explanation to the empirically identified linkage between time to hydrograph peak and hypsometric attributes. This theoretical travel time can provide an alternative way of characterizing the effects of basin morphometry on hydrologic response. 相似文献
5.
Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3
Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders. 相似文献
6.
On July 31, 2014, at around 23:57, several huge explosions occurred that lasted for 2 h in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. As a result of a gas leak from a ruptured underground pipeline, the catastrophic incident destroyed more than 6 km of roads, killed 32 people, injured 321 people, and damaged 3259 buildings. Pipeline explosions have been reported as a repeatedly occurring problem, indicating that (1) complex systems are difficult to manage and control, and (2) humans are unable to effectively learn from experiences of accidents. Initial analyses results reveal that root causes of this incident were a combination of a series of complex chain reactions, which eventually led to propylene leakage and explosion. This is a systematic problem, which can hardly be investigated or analyzed by traditional research approaches. Based on the investigation reports and “systems thinking” method, this study develops causal loop diagrams for the Kaohsiung gas explosion to explore the root causes of the disaster. The research results indicate that (1) this pipeline explosion incident was the result of the chain reactions and was the output of a complex system; (2) the mental model of “production first” and “experience gap” were the root causes of the disaster; and (3) to achieve a higher safety standard, continuous education to improve the mental model of “safety first and safety over production” are essential. The findings of this study may contribute toward the improvement of the standard operating procedure for disaster management and preventing similar incidents in the future. 相似文献
7.
Despite having a strong influence on development policies, theories of sustainability have not paid much attention to the capability approach (CA) thus far. Against this backdrop, the present paper argues for the CA’s usefulness of sustainability. In order to avoid just an additional contribution to the already confusing theoretical situation as well as to rely our exploration of the CA’s aptness for a conception of sustainability on a transparent and comparable basis, we will first identify six adequacy conditions for concepts of sustainability. We will then work out a categorial framework for conceptions of sustainability. Finally we will demonstrate how the CA is a promising candidate for filling in the demands of this framework and what further research will be needed. 相似文献
8.
自动喷水灭火系统喷水强度概率分布特性及其控火性能研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
喷水强度是体现自动喷水灭火系统控火能力的重要参数,具有不均匀性和不确定性.传统的喷水强度设计主要考虑喷头的流量和保护面积,没有考虑其分布特性,对系统控火性能的影响.因此本文将喷水强度分布特性引入自动喷水灭火系统的控火性能研究.以公称口径为15 mm的传统下垂型玻璃球洒水喷头的喷水强度分布实验为基础,建立了包含径向距离和喷头工作压力等参数的喷水强度分布模型,采用蒙特卡罗方法获得了喷水强度的概率分布特性.参照不同危险等级场控火所需的喷水强度参数和不同喷头开启个数下的有效控火百分比,分析了喷水强度概率分布特性对控火性能的影响.研究结果表明,喷水强度概率分布特性对控火性能有重要影响,随径向距离的增加,喷水强度出现较小值的概率增大,控火性能下降,在某些危险较大的场所不能达到控火作用.对于同一危险等级场所,控火性能随着喷头安装间距减小而增强.研究方法可为合理评估喷头适用范围、优化喷头布置提供参考. 相似文献
9.
A hierarchical approach to fisheries planning and modeling in the Columbia River Basin 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Columbia River Basin is the scene of a massive effort to restore populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Efficient restoration is confounded by a high level of complexity, competing sociopolitical goals and values, and uncertainty
about key system properties. Simulation models and other tools of systems analysis are important to development of a comprehensive,
regionally acceptable strategy. Hierarchy theory provides a useful paradigm for organized complexity within the Columbia Basin
and the basis for a trilevel hierarchical structure for organizing and integrating models. Life-stage models compose the most
basic simulation units at the lowest level in the proposed hierarchical modeling structure. Each life-stage model simulates
a distinct period in the life cycle of anadromous salmonids. Population models at the intermediate level simulate the complete
life cycles of salmon and steelhead populations. At the highest level in the hierarchy, interpopulation models simulate extensive,
long-term processes that affect multiple species and stocks. A hierarchical system of models is preferable to a single model
or to a group of models lacking formal structure. A principal advantage is that models have the correct spatial and temporal
resolution for analyzing questions at different scales. A hierarchical structure also facilitates the flow of information
among models, and aids in understanding the impacts of uncertainty. Constructing a hierarchy of models should involve both
bottom-up and top-down perspectives that maintain logical consistency among models, while allowing unique model structures
appropriate for each level in the hierarchy. 相似文献
10.
Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model 总被引:95,自引:3,他引:92
Verburg PH Soepboer W Veldkamp A Limpiada R Espaldon V Mastura SS 《Environmental management》2002,30(3):391-405
Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help
to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change
model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small
regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow
the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly
addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability
is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user
can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and
Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation. 相似文献