洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Impact of floodplain and Stage 0 stream restoration on flood attenuation and floodplain exchange during small frequent storms

River flooding impacts human life and infrastructure, yet provides habitat and ecosystem services. Traditional flood control (e.g., levees, dams) reduces habitat and ecosystem services, and exacerbates flooding elsewhere. Floodplain restoration (i.e., bankfull floodplain reconnection and Stage 0) can also provide flood management, but has not been sufficiently evaluated for small frequent storms. We used 1D unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System to simulate small storms in a 5 km-long, second-order generic stream from the Chesapeake Bay watershed, and varied % channel restored (starting at the upstream end), restoration location, restoration bank height (distinguishes bankfull from Stage 0 restoration), and floodplain width/Manning's n. Stream restoration decreased (attenuated) peak flow up to 37% and increased floodplain exchange by up to 46%. Floodplain width and % channel restored had the largest impact on flood attenuation. The incremental effects of new restoration projects on flood attenuation were greatest when little prior restoration had occurred. By contrast, incremental effects on floodplain exchange were greatest in the presence of substantial prior restoration, setting up a tradeoff. A similar tradeoff was revealed between attenuation and exchange for project location, but not bank height or floodplain width. In particular, attenuation and exchange were always greater for Stage 0 than for bankfull floodplain restoration. Stage 0 thus may counteract human impacts such as urbanization.     

Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

Abstract:  We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case–control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species ( n = 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p = 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats.     

Perceptions toward stewardship among residents living near U.S. Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue     

草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识的调查研究

根据环境意识结构．设计了旅游管理部门环境意识调查问卷。其主要的指标体系包括：旅游环境知识水平、旅游环境态度、旅游环境评价和旅游环境行为四个方面。对指标体系各部分之间以及每一指标部分的每一题目之间的相对重要性进行权重的确定．而且对各部分的每道题目的各个选项予以赋分。基于权重和赋分．结合调查问卷的实际情况，设计了指标体系各部分评价模型和环境意识总体评价模型。以此来计算草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识水平的综合得分。经过分析得知，旅游管理部门环境意识模式是“环境知识制约型”模式。     

Integrated nutrient management and waste recycling for restoring soil fertility and productivity in Japanese mint and mustard sequence in Uttar Pradesh, India

Supplementing the nutrient requirement of crops through organic manures plays a key role in sustaining soil fertility, and crop productivity and reducing use of fossil fuels. Field experiments were conducted for 2 years at two different locations (i.e. Lucknow and Pantnagar) in Uttar Pradesh, India. The objectives of the study were to assess the herb and essential oil yields of Japanese mint (Mentha arvensis cv. Hy 77), and its nutrient accumulation under single and combined applications of organic manures and inorganic fertilizers (NPK). Changes in physical and chemical characteristics of the soils (Fluvisols, Mollisols) were also determined. Eight treatments comprising different combinations of NPK through inorganic fertilizers and farm yard manure (FYM) were compared. The distilled waste of mint after extraction of essential oil was recycled to soils in the plots to supplement the nutritional requirement of the succeeding mustard crop (Brassica juncea cv. Pusa Bold). Herb and essential oil yield of mint were significantly higher with combined application of organic and inorganic sources of nutrients as compared to single applications. Accumulation of N and P was at par under full inorganic and combined supply whereas, K accumulation was higher with the former. Soil organic C and pH after harvest of mint did not significantly differ among the treatments, but the level of mineralizable N, Olsen-P and NH₄OAc extractable K were higher in soil with integrated supply of nutrients. Significant increase in soil water stable aggregates, organic C, available NPK and microbial biomass, and decrease in soil bulk density were observed with waste recycling over fertilizer application. These benefits were reflected in the seed and stubble yield of mustard which succeeded mint. This study indicates that combined application of inorganic fertilizers with organics helps in increasing the availability of nutrients and crop yield and provides a significant effect to the succeeding crop. Similarly, recycling crop residues reduces the need for fossil fuel based fertilizer, and helps in sustaining and restoring soil fertility in terms of available nutrients and major physical and chemical characteristics of the soil.     

销毁遗弃化学武器的环境风险评价方法研究

为履行《禁止化学武器公约》，各缔约国销毁化学武器的工作已启动。根据当前世界上化学武器的销毁情况，并针对二战期间在中国遗弃的化学武器的特点，给出了一套适应化学武器销毁流程的环境风险评价方法和技术。这套方法对将在我国进行的销毁遗弃化学武器风险评价工作有一定的实际意义。     

我国水产养殖业对环境的影响及对策

综述了我国水产养殖业的自身污染、对水环境和生态系统的影响及其对景观环境质量的影响等，提出应在健全的法律法规指导下，建立完善的水产养殖环境管理系统，加强营养与饲料学研究，提高水产养殖饲料质量和投饵水平，同时强化环境工程技术在集约化水产养殖中的应用，以减少污染排放，使水产养殖走可持续发展的道路。     

餐饮娱乐业的环境污染与综合防治

主要分析了城市餐饮娱乐业环境污染的几个方面,针对我国目前现状,从政策法规、行政管理、技术改造等方面提出了一些综合防治对策。     

合成氨装置重点部位的安全管理及防范措施

对安庆分公司化肥厂合成氨装置 4年以来的运行及安全管理情况作了综述 . 对装置的重点 监督部位加强技术型管理 , 并实行了一系列行之有效的安全防范措施 , 使之达到了国内同类 型装置先进水平 .