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排序方式: 共有119条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。 相似文献
2.
Thomas Hartmann 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2016,59(2):360-377
In response to the extreme flood events of recent decades, the European Union has released the Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), which requires the creation of flood risk management plans. These plans do not yet exist in practice, as water management agencies have until 2015 to put them into action. This contribution will discuss two questions regarding the European flood risk management plan: First, how is the new instrument integrated into the various member states, particularly with respect to the scenario approach? Second, how prepared are the institutions for the collaborative planning paradigm of the flood risk management plan, particularly with respect to the river basin districts approach? Citing examples from France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Great Britain, this paper offers both a pessimistic and an optimistic perspective on the implementation of the new flood risk management instrument. 相似文献
3.
基于江西省5个气象站(赣县、吉安、南城、南昌、景德镇)近50 a(1961~2010年)平均气温、最高、最低平均气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数、降雨量等逐月平均资料,计算江西省干旱侦测指数(Reconnaissance drought index,RDI),分析旱情、涝情变化趋势。同时,运用多元回归法分析主要驱动因素。研究结果表明,1961~2010年江西省年及四个季节的降雨量、平均相对湿度与RDIst值均呈现极显著的正相关关系(p0.01),而日照时数则与RDIst值呈现极显著的负相关关系(p0.01)。降雨量对江西省旱、涝变化的贡献率最大,为42%~58%;其次是平均气温和相对湿度,分别为11%~19%和7%~19%;平均风速和日照时数对江西省旱、涝变化的贡献率较小。降雨量、相对湿度的增加,日照时数的减少共同导致了1961~2010年江西省年际尺度和春季RDIst值的增加,表明江西省总体从偏旱向偏涝转变。1961~2010年江西省夏季、秋季和冬季RDIst没有明显的增长或降低趋势。 相似文献
4.
S. M. Shafigullina 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2009,40(3):218-226
Interannual changes in geobiont and chortobiont abundance on the islands of Kuibyshev Reservoir are largely determined by flood conditions, because the seasonal average abundance of many taxa is negatively correlated to the water level in May and June. Floods influence the abundance of these animals both directly and indirectly, through biocenotic connections and some aspects of behavior. Long-term positive trends are observed in the abundance of many species. The hypothesis is proposed that this increase in the abundance of geobionts and chortobionts is a consequence of adaptation processes in these communities, which are stimulated by the flood regime of the reservoir. 相似文献
5.
Over the last several decades, the scientific community has replaced the ‘acts of god’ explanations for disasters with a view that disasters are actually ‘acts of nature,’ and more recently, ‘acts of human behavior and decision making.’ Despite the secular orientation of contemporary disaster research, religious beliefs still govern people’s interpretations of natural events across many continents and cultures. Using a case study of a rural Sherpa community in Nepal, this paper responds to the challenge of linking religion and disaster risk in the context of a climate change-induced glacial lake outburst flood hazard. Data collection employed ethnographic techniques including participant observation and 53 interviews with community members. Results indicate that the case study community’s religious belief system influences how they interpret and respond to the glacial lake hazard, although their beliefs co-exist with more scientific interpretations of risk. Rather than being immobilised by their belief system, we found that religious aspects like rituals and prayer can enhance social cohesion and contribute to capacities for coping with fear and uncertainty in this community. We assert that religion can yield valuable resources to glacial lake risk reduction strategies, which will benefit from incorporating social-cultural factors more profoundly. 相似文献
6.
Robert D. Jarrett 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1990,26(3):419-429
ABSTRACT: Although our current (1990) knowledge of hydrologic and hydraulic processes is based on many years of study, there are river environments where these processes are complex and poorly understood. One of these environments is in mountainous areas, which cover about 25 percent of the United States. Use of conventional hydrologic and hydraulic techniques in mountain-river environments may produce erroneous results and interpretations in a wide spectrum of water-resources investigations. An ongoing U.S. Geological Survey research project is being conducted to improve the understanding of hydrologic and hydraulic processes of mountainous areas and to improve the results of subsequent hydrologic investigations. Future hydrologic and hydraulic research needs in mountainous areas are identified. 相似文献
7.
The flood frequency characteristics of 18 watersheds in southeastern Arizona were studied using the log-Boughton and the log-Pearson Type 3 distribution. From the flood frequency study, a generalized envelope for Q100 for watersheds 0.01 to 4000 mi2 in area has been produced for southeastern Arizona. The generalized envelope allows comparisons to be made among the relative flood characteristics of the watersheds used in the study and provides a conservative estimate of Q100 for ungaged watersheds in the region. 相似文献
8.
Brian M. Reich 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1971,7(6):1153-1171
A study is presented of the months in which the instantaneous annual maximum discharges from 66 watersheds occurred. The 2,052 flood values were measured on areas ranging from 2.4 through 214 square miles. The longest record was 60 years; the three shortest were 20. Pictorial results show both the number of floods for each month and individual discharges relative to the mean flood. A parameter which is weighted in this manner accounts for both the incidence and the magnitude of floods. Peculiarities of flood-timing charts, based on this parameter, are discussed with respect to watershed size, soils, geology, and land use. After anomolous watersheds had been assigned to special categories, flood-timing charts from most records exhibit a regional dichotomy dividing eastern from western Pennsylvania. 相似文献
9.
The urban poor in Dhaka City: their struggles and coping strategies during the floods of 1998 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Rashid SF 《Disasters》2000,24(3):240-253
Bangladesh experienced one of the worst floods in recorded history in 1998. This paper focuses on the needs and coping strategies of the urban poor in Dhaka City, which had been very badly affected. The city's roads were completely under water, and most areas were water-logged with drainage and sewage systems blocked. Rising water levels compelled many slum dwellers to move to temporary shelters and relief camps. Women and children were the worst affected. The lack of sanitation facilities and privacy forced women and children to defecate in their own homes. There was an acute scarcity of safe drinking-water, and food prices rose dramatically. Diarrhoea, fever and colds were the most common illnesses affecting the poor. The floods left many of them unemployed, and in some families, the result was increased tension and incidents of domestic violence. In some areas, members felt pressured to repay micro-credit loans. Most NGOs, however, suspended loan repayments. During this period, a committee was set up to co-ordinate and work towards addressing some of the main post-flood problems. 相似文献
10.
Studies based on information acquired by participative geographic approaches have sought to cope with emergency situations and disasters such as floods. However, the impact of these approaches to flood risk governance systems in order to understand these types of events as a complete risk cycle is still not clear. This paper focuses on analysing the governance possibilities of using participative geographic information like volunteered and public participatory geographic information for flood risk reduction in the case of Santiago de Chile, a city which regularly experiences urban floods during rainy seasons. Based on in-depth interviews and document analysis, our study indicates that a relevant part of the current information used for flood risk reduction efforts is provided to local and regional authorities by the affected population. Though, local actors are not recognized by central agencies as valid agents for the production of official information. Moreover, there are neither instances of communication or deliberation with the community, which reduces the capacity of local actors to discuss possible solutions. Participative geographic instruments are seen as potential mechanisms to strengthen work relations among local actors and authorities, by enhancing new logics for producing and sharing information. The impacts for the current risk governance system though can be diverse depending on the participants' level of commitment of participants and the political relations between actors and agencies. Considered as merely data acquisition and analysis mechanisms, participative instruments reproduce the existing hierarchical top-down structures. Furthermore, local-based approaches can enhance local work, support local diagnostics and increase the decision capacity of citizens. 相似文献