中国主要电子废物产生量估算

在分析了电子废物类型及其可能造成的主要环境问题的基础上。根据电子电器产品的销量、社会保有量以及产品寿命期等因子建立模型对我国2000-2010年间的电脑、电视机、冰箱、洗衣机、空调等5大类电子电器产品的年度废弃量进行估算。结果显示到2003年电脑年度废弃量达到447万台，总体呈增长趋势；电视机、冰箱的废弃量在2003年分别达到4229万台和976万台；洗衣机年度废弃量有一定波动。大约在2005年达到一个高峰，废弃量为1521万台；空调废弃量相对于其他家电较少，但一直处于稳步增长期。并在此基础估算了我国2003年主要电子废物中的可回收资源含量。量大而且增长较快的电子废物的处置和资源再生化将是我国电子废物管理面临的一个难题。     

深圳湾流域面源与截排溢流污染特征及其对水环境的影响

随着点源污染逐步得到有效控制,面源与截排溢流污染对水环境的胁迫日益突出。基于土地遥感数据、城市排水管网等资料,构建流域—海湾一体化水环境模型,探讨深圳湾流域面源与截排溢流污染特征及其对水环境的影响,研究表明：（1）雨季COD、NH₃-N和TP单位面积面源与截排溢流污染负荷分别为17.21 t/km²与10.21 t/km²、0.17 t/km²与0.69 t/km²、0.04 t/km²与0.07 t/km²;（2）面源与截排溢流污染时间上主要集中于大雨及以上等级降水较多的5月和8月,空间上主要分布在截排工程集中、下垫面面积较大且坡度较陡的深圳河、大沙河和新洲河流域;（3）面源与截排溢流水体COD、NH₃-N和TP浓度可达地表水V类标准的3.7倍、18.2倍和8.5倍;（4）雨季COD、NH₃-N和TP浓度高于旱季的区域分别超过深圳湾总面积的40%、60%和65%。     

成都市及周边地区严重臭氧污染过程成因分析

结合天气形势,地面观测资料和WRF-CMAQ模式,分析了2017年7月8~15日成都市一次罕见持续O₃污染过程的特征及成因,量化了各个物理化学过程对此次污染过程的相对贡献,并通过敏感性实验分析了四川盆地内O₃及其前体物的区域传输和本地光化学反应对此次污染过程的影响.结果表明,此次O₃持续污染过程主要是因为四川盆地内盛行偏东风,导致盆地东部城市群的O₃及其前体物经区域输送到成都及周边地区,加之成都市出现小风、气温升高等气象条件进而形成,属于典型的传输性爆发污染.持续污染形成的主要物理化学机制体现为日间气相化学过程贡献为稳定的正值,加之输送过程贡献出现爆发式升高,进而导致近地面O₃小时净增量迅速上升且高达50μg/（m³·h）,随之O₃浓度迅速响应,产生爆发式增长.此外,敏感性实验结果显示此次成都市O₃持续污染的形成受区域输送影响较受本地光化学反应影响更为明显.O₃污染爆发前上游地区高浓度O₃及其前体物沿流场输送并在成都及周边地区不断积累,导致日间O₃浓度不断升高.     

空空导弹定延寿技术应用研究

介绍了国外典型的定延寿方法,以美国为代表采用的跟踪监测法和以俄罗斯为代表采用的加速试验法,之后概述了国内常用的厂内寿命试验法、领先使用法、外场信息法、工程分析法、加速试验法。在此基础上,总结了适用于国内空空导弹开展定延寿工作的方法,最后对深入开展空空导弹定延寿技术研究提出了几点建议。     

A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

污泥综合处理技术系统的可行性分析

通过对污泥处理技术现状与污泥组成的分析，认为降低污泥的含水率是改善污泥可处理性的关键。以机械脱水加工热干燥过程可达到充分降低污泥含水率的目的。以此为主干所形成的污泥综合处理系统经能量与经济平衡分析，发现其能量输出大于输入，经济成本合理，有一定的技术经济可行性。     

Can Forest-protection carbon projects improve rural livelihoods? Analysis of the Noel Kempff Mercado climate action project,Bolivia

We studied the Noel KempffMercado Climate Action Project (NKMCAP),Bolivia, to assess whether forestprotection carbon (C) projects cansignificantly benefit local people. Wehypothesized that forest protection canonly securely deliver C if significantstakeholders are meaningfully andtransparently involved, traditional orcustomary rights are recognized and theirloss compensated for, and there are directlinkages between conservation anddevelopment objective. Our researchfocused on 53 members of the communities ofFlorida, Porvenir and Piso Firme and 36secondary stakeholders. In each of thevillages we held half-day meetings withcommunity leaders, complemented bysemi-structured one-hour interviews with 5,10, and 7 families, representing 20%, 10%and 8% of each community. The long-termimpact of the NKMCAP on the localcommunities may well be positive. However,in the short run, certain sections of thelocal communities are financially poorer. Forest protection projects clearly have thepotential to sequester C, protectbiodiversity and simultaneously contributeto sustainable rural development, but ifthey really are to improve rurallivelihoods, they must be designed andimplemented carefully and participatively.     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

我国SO_2和NO_X排放强度地理分布和历史趋势

根据我国燃料消费、燃料的含硫量和硫与氮氧化物排放因子，计算我国各地区ＳＯ_２和ＮＯ_Ｘ排放强度地理分布。结果指出，我国原煤含硫量为１．１２％。１９９０年全国ＳＯ_２和ＮＯ_Ｘ的排放量分别为１７５１．８万ｔ和８４２．２万ｔ，排放强度最大的地区是中东部地区，即辽宁、河北、山东、山西和浙江。这些地区平均排放强度大于７ｔ／ｋｍ￣２·ａ。还估算了全国１９５０～１９９０年ＳＯ_２和ＮＯ_Ｘ历年的排放量。