新中国60年来农业多功能性演变的研究

农业多功能性是近年来国际可持续发展研究与政府闻谈判磋商的热点问题.科学地认识农业多功能性及其演变趋势,对于新时期中国可持续发展战略的制定与实施具有重要意义.鉴于此,该文通过对相关文献和调研资料的整理,从农业的产品生产功能、经济社会功能、生态环境功能、文化休闲功能4个方面.对建国60年来农业多功能性演变的基本趋势进行了初步研究.结果表明,农业产品生产功能在波折中不断提高,而地域之间呈此消彼长现象,总的趋势是农产品生产由南方向北方、由东部向西部转移;农业的经济功能已经大大弱化,但就业和社会保障功能依然极为重要;农业对生态环境的影响,总体来看负面效应要大于正面效应;农业文化传承功能呈全面衰落趋势,但旅游功能则在近年来大为增强.依据这一研究结果,该文进一步探讨了增强我国农业多功能性的政策措施.     

1368-1948年山西霜雪灾害的特征与周期规律研究

通过对山西1368-1948年历史文献资料的搜集、整理和数学分析,对该区霜雪灾害等级、阶段、周期及其成因进行了研究。在这期间,山西共发生霜雪灾害419次,轻度106次、中度228次、重度85次。灾害变化可分为4个阶段,1368-1579年为第1阶段,1580-1699年为第2阶段,1700-1819年为第3阶段,1820-1948年为第4阶段。第1、3阶段距平值主要为负值,灾害频次较低,以轻、中度灾害为主。第2、4阶段距平值主要为正值,灾害频次较高,以中度和重度霜雪灾为主。小波分析表明,灾害存在着4个明显的周期,即10～13年、20年左右、45～50年和120年左右的周期。降雪或寒流引起的气温骤降至0℃以下是造成山西霜雪灾害的主要原因。共发生6次寒冷气候事件,分别出现在1578-1588、1591-1607、1631-1642、1669-1672、1690-1699和1830-1836年。出现3次异常寒冷灾害年,分别是1653、1892和1929年。     

Evaluating weather effects on interannual variation in net ecosystem productivity of a coastal temperate forest landscape: A model intercomparison

Forest productivity is strongly affected by seasonal weather patterns and by natural or anthropogenic disturbances. However weather effects on forest productivity are not currently represented in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3 used in national forest C accounting programs. To evaluate different approaches to modelling these effects, a model intercomparison was conducted among CBM-CFS3 and four process models (ecosys, CN-CLASS, Can-IBIS and 3PG) over a 2500 ha landscape in the Oyster River (OR) area of British Columbia, Canada. The process models used local weather data to simulate net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and net biome productivity (NBP) from 1920 to 2005. Other inputs used by the process and inventory models were generated from soil, land cover and disturbance records. During a period of intense disturbance from 1928 to 1943, simulated NBP diverged considerably among the models. This divergence was attributed to differences among models in the sizes of detrital and humus C stocks in different soil layers to which a uniform set of soil C transformation coefficients was applied during disturbances. After the disturbance period, divergence in modelled NBP among models was much smaller, and attributed mainly to differences in simulated NPP caused by different approaches to modelling weather effects on productivity. In spite of these differences, age-detrended variation in annual NPP and NEP of closed canopy forest stands was negatively correlated with mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September (T_amax) in all process models (R² = 0.4-0.6), indicating that these correlations were robust. The negative correlation between T_amax and NEP was attributed to different processes in different models, which were tested by comparing CO₂ fluxes from these models with those measured by eddy covariance (EC) under contrasting air temperatures (T_a). The general agreement in sensitivity of annual NPP to T_amax among the process models led to the development of a generalized algorithm for weather effects on NPP of coastal temperate coniferous forests for use in inventory-based models such as CBM-CFS3: NPP′ = NPP − 57.1 (T_amax − 18.6), where NPP and NPP′ are the current and temperature-adjusted annual NPP estimates from the inventory-based model, 18.6 is the long-term mean daily maximum air temperature during July-September, and T_amax is the mean value for the current year. Our analysis indicated that the sensitivity of NPP to T_amax was nonlinear, so that this algorithm should not be extrapolated beyond the conditions of this study. However the process-based methodology to estimate weather effects on NPP and NEP developed in this study is widely applicable to other forest types and may be adopted for other inventory based forest carbon cycle models.     

我国森林资源产品流动及其变化特征分析

论文运用物流分析的基本思想,基于我国森林资源产品产量、贸易量统计资料,采用统一单位“原木当量”(m₃),估算了1981～2000年森林资源采伐和产品加工环节的资源流量,进而分析我国森林资源产品流动的变化特征。结果表明,我国从“六五”(1981～1985年)到“九五”(1996～2000年)期间,消耗森林资源量分别为10230×104、11678×104、13444×104和16962×104m₃/a,呈加速增长趋势。其中,来自国外的资源流量占总流量的比重呈增加趋势,“六五”期间占19.1%,到“九五”期间上升为48.3%。流入资源以原木、木浆、纸及纸板、胶合板为主,它们主要来自北美、东亚、东南亚地区,有来源多地区化的变化趋向。森林资源在“六五”期间主要流向原木锯材类产品加工,随着产品流向结构的逐步改善,更多的资源流向人造板类产品的生产消费;纸类产品生产消费的资源流量增加迅速,但主要来自国外。     

自然灾害基本参数研究（一）

本文在大量查阅史料的基础上，系统整理了自公元１３６８年至１９４９年的旱灾、涝灾、风雹、冻害、潮灾、山崩、地震等自然灾害年死亡人数。     

大气污染对悬铃木叶绿素及抗氧化酶系的影响

大气污染会影响悬铃木叶片内叶绿素含量以及活性氧清除系统,致使植物体内叶绿素含量降低,抗氧化酶系统活性上升,并使植物体内丙二醛积累增加。交通污染对植物的影响程度与工业污染相当,应引起重视。绿化可减少空气污染,提高环境质量。     

1949年长江流域大洪水分析

1949长江流域 6月～ 9月持续降雨 ,上游降雨总量超过中下游 ,有些测站为实测以来最大 ,洪水过程包括多次洪峰。长江干流洪峰流量较一般 ,但其长历时洪量和年径流量较为稀遇。上游来水比重大 ,宜昌以上 30 d总入流占汉口以上的 2 / 3以上。灾情以中下游为最大     

粗苯酐与杂醇油综合利用制备增塑剂的研究

在固体酸催化下 ,粗苯酐与杂醇油直接酯化再经减压蒸馏制备邻苯二甲酸C4 ～C5混合酯增塑剂 ,经中试生产表明 ,该工艺技术是可行的 ,苯酐及C4 ～C5醇回收利用率均可达 90 %以上 ,且废水排放量很少。其最佳工艺条件为 :(1)酯化反应　 (C4 ～C5醇 )∶(苯酐 ) =2 6∶1 0 ,催化剂用量为反应物总质量的 1 5 % ,温度 110～ 16 0℃ ,时间 5h ,反应在搅拌下进行 ;(2 )减压蒸馏　蒸馏压力 <2 0kPa。