Death and injury in earthquakes

The assumption that the ratio of mortality to morbidity will approximate 1:3 in earthquake disasters is investigated. When it occurs, a 1:3 ratio is most likely to coincide with a Richter magnitude in the range 6.5–7.4, but many other ratios of death to injuries may instead be probable. For each individual disaster the pattern of casualties is likely to be very heterogeneous, but it would be easier to discover regularities if a more standardized definition of 'injury' could be found.     

Perception of earthquake risk in Agadir,Morocco: A case study from a Muslim community

Earthquakes are separated from other hazards in meaning, significance, and risk perception throughout the Islamic World due to their specific focus in their own chapter or surah “al-Zalzala” (99th) in the Qur'an. Unlike earthquakes that are discussed in terms or the Judgment Day or as divine punishment or retribution against the disbelieving or hypocritical—other natural hazards like floods, tornadoes, and landslides are rarely discussed. An extensive survey of earthquake survivors and longtime residents was undertaken to better understand the perceptions of seismic risk in Agadir, Morocco where two moderate earthquakes razed the city in 1960 leaving 15,000 dead and 25,000 injured. Most of the deaths were attributed to faulty construction (along with standards and enforcement), inaddition to poor evacuation plans.

During the summer of 2002, more than 250 earthquake survivors and residents were surveyed and interviewed for their knowledge and perception of the disaster forty years before. Surveys were conducted in Arabic, French and English and included questions and Likertscaled responses including extensive interviews in the hopes of obtaining ideas of their potential quake recurrence, seismology, current construction standard policies, and local and regional planning strategies. In addition, reviews the Qur'an, Hadith and classical and contemporary tafasir texts were used to investigate the guiding passages used in Islamic discussions of “al-Zalzala”.

It was found that younger persons (<25yo) were more likely to believed that brick, mortar and cement structures were always safer and stronger during and after a tremor, regardless as to whether they are iron-reinforced or sub-standard (and hazardous) stone or brick infilled. After the 1960 disaster, speedy recovery efforts often undermined concrete construction and reinforcement techniques since such ‘rebar’ was relatively unavailable. Even today, inferior and seismically unstable construction practices are widely used.

It was found that television-watchers considered themselves less knowledgeable about earthquakes, when in fact many aspects of the1960 event and earthquakes in general, were more widely understood by this group, supporting the notion that the medium of televisionis the most widely used, efficient, and fastest mass communication and education tool.

Less-educated respondents in general tended to attribute earthquakes to divine action and retribution. All questions, however, concerning the possibility of quake recurrence frequency or magnitude caused an overwhelming refusal to answer, or with the reply of ‘Allahu a'lam’ or “God is wisest”—implying or directly stating that any attempt at earthquake forecasting, quake-related construction, advanced architectural standards for seismic safety, and/or related education was ‘haram’ or prohibited by Islam.

Further discussions with participants in Agadir indicated that any guess, awareness or prediction was in fact, fortune-telling and therefore an act forbidden by the Qur'an and Hadith.

Finally, the less educated were more likely to say that Allah protected those who were devout and considered scientific assessment as futile, forecasting as forbidden, or new construction technologies as a waste since only the ‘kafir’ (non-Muslim) or ‘munafiq’ (hypocrite) were at risk to death or injury from an earthquake. These conclusions are important toward gaining an insight of perception and risky behavior in a questionably constructed city with now more than 600,000 people 40 years later, and in a region laced by active faulting.     

Earthquake risk reduction: An examination of local regulatory efforts

We develop an understanding of local governmental efforts to address earthquake risks. Our data for a sample of California and Washington cities' risk-reduction efforts sort into two different clusters of leading jurisdictions as contrasted with a cluster of lagging jurisdictions. We explain differences among the three categories of cities in terms of different political-economic factors. Local governmental willingness and ability to undertake risk-reduction programs have more to do with local political demands and community resources than with objective risk or previous earthquake experience. State mandates have a selective impact on local risk-reduction efforts. The principal policy lessons concern the need to address gaps in local risk-reduction efforts through more careful targeting of federal and state earthquake programs and by including stronger teeth within state mandates.     

Earthquake Planning for Government Continuity

/ The problem of assuring government operational continuity following earthquakes has been given little research attention. Recent earthquake experience has documented that government organizations without a public safety mission do incur damaged facilities and routinely see increases in public demands following an earthquake. Impediments to service delivery associated with such dam-ages can be minimized if agencies address earthquake plan elements likely to enhance postimpact functioning, including: the potential to relocate operations, protection for the workplace, possession of an organizational inventory, emergency instructions for employees, the ability to use volunteers, and communication capacity. Factors associated with the adoption of these plan elements were studied in one county government and its municipal county seat in the southwestern United States. A census of departments within these jurisdictions was asked to complete a questionnaire reporting the level of planning activity relative to each of these plan elements. It was found that the overall level of preparedness was low, but statistically significantly related to agency size, perceived risk, and information seeking. The implications of these findings underscore the potential for disruption to government service delivery and permit the identification of potential avenues for increasing levels of preparedness.KEY WORDS: Emergency planning; Earthquakes; Government preparedness     

乐山市诱发地震的社会影响及对策

本文简述了健为县罗城镇的注水采盐诱发地震和沙湾区铜街子水库蓄水诱发地震的影响及对策。     

The Manchester earthquake of 14th September 1111: A re-appraisal of contemporary reports

In September 1777 a strong shock of earthquake was widely experienced in the Manchester area. Thanks largely to the density of population in this area and to the fact that the shock occurred on a Sunday morning when many people were in church, the earthquake attracted considerable attention; despite its modest size, it is one of the best documented earthquakes recorded before the 19th century. Analysis of contemporary literature of the event reveals something of the outlook of the society affected and suggests how circumstances of time and place influence the level of information available about early earthquakes. The earthquake caused minor damage but no loss of life. It is nevertheless shown to be a larger event than previously identified.     

Using computer graphics to reveal temporal changes in urban population density patterns

Population distributions change substantially over time in major metropolitan areas. Knowledge of these variations by time of day, day of the week and other time periods can be helpful to disaster planners who need to prepare response plans to earthquakes and other disasters that will injure and kill large numbers of people. Computer graphics can display data that describe these changing population patterns in ways that can be more easily comprehended than page after page of printed numbers. Several different illustrations of 3-D population density maps drawn by the ASPEX computer program are presented. Each illustrates a guideline that can be used to prepare maps that deal with the many ways of looking at urban population density distributions and their temporal changes. Those maps can help disaster planners gain a realistic perception of population density distributions by enabling them to see what cannot be seen from the actual physical structure of a large metropolitan region.     

Science, Policy, and Stakeholders: Developing a Consensus Science Plan for Amchitka Island, Aleutians, Alaska

With the ending of the Cold War, the US Department of Energy is responsible for the remediation of radioactive waste and disposal of land no longer needed for nuclear material production or related national security missions. The task of characterizing the hazards and risks from radionuclides is necessary for assuring the protection of health of humans and the environment. This is a particularly daunting task for those sites that had underground testing of nuclear weapons, where the radioactive contamination is currently inaccessible. Herein we report on the development of a Science Plan to characterize the physical and biological marine environment around Amchitka Island in the Aleutian chain of Alaska, where three underground nuclear tests were conducted (1965–1971). Information on the ecology, geology, and current radionuclide levels in biota, water, and sediment is necessary for evaluating possible current contamination and to serve as a baseline for developing a plan to ensure human and ecosystem health in perpetuity. Other information required includes identifying the location of the salt water/fresh water interface where migration to the ocean might occur in the future and determining groundwater recharge balances, as well as assessing other physical/geological features of Amchitka near the test sites. The Science Plan is needed to address the confusing and conflicting information available to the public about radionuclide risks from underground nuclear blasts in the late 1960s and early 1970s, as well as the potential for volcanic or seismic activity to disrupt shot cavities or accelerate migration of radionuclides into the sea. Developing a Science Plan involved agreement among regulators and other stakeholders, assignment of the task to the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation, and development of a consensus Science Plan that dealt with contentious scientific issues. Involvement of the regulators (State of Alaska), resource trustees (U S Fish and Wildlife Service), representatives of the Aleut and Pribilof Island communities, and other stakeholders was essential for plan development and approval, although this created tensions because of the different objectives of each group. The complicated process of developing a Science Plan involved iterations and interactions with multiple agencies and organizations, scientists in several disciplines, regulators, and the participation of Aleut people in their home communities, as well as the general public. The importance of including all parties in all phases of the development of the Science Plan was critical to its acceptance by a broad range of regulators, agencies, resource trustees, Aleutian/Pribilof communities, and other stakeholders.     

Recovery following the Gediz earthquake: a study of four villages of western Turkey

This paper is the result of a social and economic survey of four villages in the Gediz region of South West Anatolia, Turkey, which was undertaken in two phases, October/November 1982 and March/April 1984. The specific aims of this survey were to define what was perceived as recovery in the local social, cultural and economic context and to measure recovery in communities which had suffered different degrees of distress and loss following the earthquake and, consequently, had received different amounts and kinds of assistance from the government. Essentially, therefore, the survey sought to answer the question – how far did the government programme of assistance promote recovery and over what period of time? The implications of such an inquiry concern what constitutes appropriate assistance following earthquake in rural communities. It is hoped that studies of this kind can help to guide decision making of both national governments and international humanitarian organizations on the role of material aid in the process of recovery. This is particularly urgent in view of the fact that preliminary investigations of other small rural and under-developed communities struck by earthquake suggest that material aid may actually preclude recovery in the longer term.