Effect of Mountain Relief and Industrial Air Pollution on Biometric Characteristics of Pine Stands

The effect of mountain relief and industrial air pollution on biometric parameters of pine stands was studied. The empirical–statistical models of the dependence of biometric characteristics on the parameters of forest sites were developed using raster modeling and multivariate analysis. The possibility of predicting changes in the biometric parameters at any site on the basis of these models is shown.     

Co-ordination for disasters

This paper was prepared in 1978 on the basis of a review of sociological and anthropological fieldwork conducted up to that time. Although theoretical in presentation its conclusions are formulated in accordance with the author's own extensive observations of organizational response to natural disasters in developing countries, especially those having sudden onset. Practical implications for co-ordination agencies and pre-disaster training are drawn.     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

The 'who' and 'what' of training far disaster relief

This paper defines the various levels within government, the voluntary agencies and the community which might benefit from training and makes suggestions as to where the emphasis should be placed. It points out that training programmes should be designed to meet the expressed needs of a particular group of trainees as well as be related to the current or potential disaster situation.     

浅析救灾行为及其经济学特点

分析了救灾行为的经济学特性，提出救灾应包括两方面的内容，一方面它是一种人道主义救助，另一方面，它又是一种投资活动。指出帮助灾区恢复生产是整个社会扩大再生产的组成部分．并通过分析阐明摆脱以往单纯将救灾看成是人道主义救助的旧观点，充分考虑到在经济社会里救灾行为的经济学特点，用经济学原理指导救灾工作．     

减轻旱灾,谋求旱区可持续发展的综合途径与措施

运用旱区环境社会学的观点和方法，从旱灾、旱区环境与人类行为交互作用的角度分析旱灾，提出减轻旱灾、谋求旱区可持续发展的综合途径、措施与对策。对策的重点是非技术措施与方法，如调适人类开发利用生态资源的观念、方法及群体行为，改善旱区的社会格局、加强旱区人类行为评估和移民管理等。同时提出减轻旱灾，必须强化旱灾的社会学研究。     

论民初我国救灾之主要特征

民国初年我国救灾的主要特征有三:一是救灾主体多元化,这可从阶层、国籍、职业、身份等方面看出,总体上又可划分为政府和社会力量两个方面。至于救灾效能,无论是政府还是社会救济力量均存在着或多或少的局限性。二是短效机制占主导,这可从救灾因素之临设性、救灾甚于防灾两点看出。三是社会过渡性彰显,无论是思想,还是机构、制度,都呈现出明显的新旧交错性,即社会过渡性。     

民国时期川东北灾荒严重的社会因素

民国时期川东北地区的干旱、洪水、滑坡、泥石流等灾害频发,范围广,灾情较严重,危害大。除自然因素外,各种社会因素对灾荒的严重程度也有直接影响。在军阀混战、赋税繁重、政治腐败、土匪横行的大背景下,政府防灾、救灾水平较为低下,民间赈灾杯水车薪,灾后恢复难度大。整体上防灾、救灾水平较低,人祸不亚于天灾。     

城市震后救灾系统救灾决策研究

论述了震后救灾系统模型及评估方法,采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ模拟和最优化技术理论,建立了城市震后救灾、救护、运输网络系统的可靠性分析方法和以失效概率为控制参数的最佳路径优化方法,并以某城市网络系统为例通过分析研究,给出了震后救灾决策方法。     

高应力巷道底臌变形机理及控制技术分析

为了分析高应力巷道底臌变形机理,以铜川玉华煤矿2407工作面巷道为研究背景,采用理论分析和现场观测相结合的研究方法。根据巷道底臌主要由原岩应力、支承应力、围岩遇水膨胀、流变作用而引起进行分析,推导出计算底臌量的表达式。针对玉华煤矿高应力巷道底臌变形,提出在巷道顶板采用锚网梁索支护,帮部采用锚网支护的原支护条件下,底板采用锚杆注浆和切槽联合支护方式控制底臌。现场观测结果表明:这种联合支护方式能够有效控制巷道底臌变形,底臌量降低了61.5%。将底臌量理论解与现场监测的结果进行比较,误差小于8.93%,验证了理论的合理性,为巷道底臌量分析提供了参考。