沈阳市水土流失现状及对策措施探讨

针对沈阳市水土流失现状、成因及对策进行了初步探讨 ,并对沈阳市水土流失现状 ,提出了防治对策和措施 ,着重强调了政府的政策导向在综合防治水土流失中的重要作用     

华北地区主要农业灾害及灾情分析

本文分析了华北地区农业灾害发生的气象背景,并利用1981～1990年的农业统计资料分析了华北地区的农业灾情状况及因灾而造成的粮、棉损失量。华北地区单位耕地面积的受灾率及成灾率分别为47.3%和23.0%,大致相当于二年一遇灾和四年一成灾。华北地区因农业灾害而造成的粮、棉损失量平均每年为397.0和34.5万吨,粮、棉损失率分别为4.9%及15.3%。     

河南省1950～1990年水旱灾害分析

根据河南省各县１９５０～１９９０年水、旱灾史料，进行系统的整理分析，揭示了本省各流域水、旱灾害农业损失程度，论述了水、旱灾的成灾原因、特点和规律。并对水、旱灾的灾度作了初步的探析。     

浅论洪水的完全影响

对洪水、洪水灾害及洪灾损失重新进行了定义，并简要论述了洪水对家庭、社会及自然环境的影响。     

林火管理成本中几个基本要素的确定与相互关系

通过用经济学的观点分析了林火管理成本中基本要素的相互关系及这些要素的确定,研究了林火防治成本与森林火灾损失之间的关系,提出了林火管理经济学中防治可能性区域的判据。     

Issues and approaches in assessing cumulative impacts on waterbird habitat in wetlands

Wetlands are attractive to vertebrates because of their abundant nutrient resources and habitat diversity. Because they are conspicuous, vertebrates commonly are used as indicators of changes in wetlands produced by environmental impacts. Such impacts take place at the landscape level where extensive areas are lost; at the wetland complex level where some (usually small) units of a closely spaced group of wetlands are drained or modified; or at the level of the individual wetland through modification or fragmentation that impacts its habitat value. Vertebrates utilize habitats differently according to age, sex, geographic location, and season, and habitat evaluations based on isolated observations can be biased. Current wetland evaluation systems incorporate wildlife habitat as a major feature, and the habitat evaluation procedure focuses only on habitat. Several approaches for estimating bird habitat losses are derived from population curves based on natural and experimentally induced population fluctuations. Additional research needs and experimental approaches are identified for addressing cumulative impacts on wildlife habitat values.     

PeLM: Modeling of Pesticide-Losses Through Runoff and Sediment Transport

Abstract

A GIS-aided pesticide loss model (PeLM) was developed to simulate pesticide losses through surface runoff and sediment transport in watershed systems. The PeLM could tackle the movement of eroded soil along with surface runoff as well as the pesticide losses in adsorbed and dissolved phases. The contributions of different soil types in the sediment were also examined. The model was applied to the Kintore Creek Watershed of southern Ontario, Canada. The simulation results were verified through observed data, indicating a correlation level of 0.89–0.98. The results also showed that clay particles usually held the largest share of contributions to pesticide losses through soil erosion. This study is significant in the efforts for modeling nonpoint source pollution in watershed systems. It provides useful information and support for the related decisions of watershed management.     

地震灾害损失预测的动态分析模型

本文提出了一个地震灾害预测的动态分析模型。这个模型基于概率理论基础,考虑了一个城市因建设的发展,新房屋日益增多,部分旧房屋被淘汰,对城市抗震能力引起的变化;和由于经济的发展,社会财富的增加,对地震损失的影响。为解决这—问题,文中提出了动态震害矩阵和动态损失矩阵的求解方法。根据这一方法可以预测未来不同年代的地震经济损失。     

企业停减产损失预测和评估模式

本文是文[1]的续篇。在文[1]中,作者对灾害经济损失评估的理论和方法做了初步的探讨．本文则着重对灾害间接经济损失中的企业停减产损失的预测和评估问题进行了探讨,建立了相应的预测和评估模式．所建立的模式既可用于灾前对企业停减产损失进行预测,也可用于灾后对其进行评估．     

中国的地震灾害损失预测

估计某个地区未来将会遭到多大的地震灾害损失.对于减轻地震灾害是十分重要的科学问题.因力地震预防和救灾的基础是对未来地震灾害的定量估计.地震灾害主要由两方面因素决定.一方面是未来地震动强烈程度的估计(地震危险性分析).另一方面是各个地震动等级对社会、经济、人口等所造成的损害程度估计(地震易损性分析). 本文介绍了以上两方面研究工作的进展,以及国家地震局“未来地震灾害损失预测研究组”试编的中国未来50年地震灾害损失预测图及其应用.讨论了在灾害预测方面所遇到的科学问题.