洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Climate hazards: Lessons from recent events in the United States

Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored.     

长白山西坡风灾干扰区的恢复和保护

长白山西坡发生的灾害性风灾干扰,一方面给长白山自然保护区的森林资源造成巨大损失,同时也提出了如何加强保护和加速恢复的新课题。文中分析了风灾干扰区的更新格局和过程以及干扰后处理的有关问题,提出了从立地和景观水平促进更新恢复的保护措施     

合成氨装置重点部位的安全管理及防范措施

对安庆分公司化肥厂合成氨装置 4年以来的运行及安全管理情况作了综述 . 对装置的重点 监督部位加强技术型管理 , 并实行了一系列行之有效的安全防范措施 , 使之达到了国内同类 型装置先进水平 .     

Fisheries management: integrating societal preference, decision analysis, and ecological risk assessment

Fisheries management is the practice of analyzing and selecting options to maintain or alter the structure, dynamics, and interaction of habitat, aquatic biota, and man to achieve human goals and objectives. The theory of fisheries management is: managers or decision makers attempt to maximize renewable `output' from an aquatic resource by choosing from among a set of decision options and applying a set of actions that generate an array of outputs. Outputs may be defined as a tangible catch, a fishing experience, an existence value, or anything else produced or supported by renewable aquatic resources. Overall output is always a mix of tangible and intangible elements. However defined, management goals and objectives are essential components of fisheries management or any other field of renewable natural resource management. Reaching consensus on management goals and objectives has never been a simple task. Beyond the broad and often conflicting goals of an agency, managers must decide who should set specific management objectives — agency personnel, the public, or a combination of the two. Historically, rhetoric aside, fisheries managers in North America nearly always have consulted with professionals in governmental roles to set management objectives. In a strongly pluralistic society, this often resulted in protracted political and legal conflict. Increasingly, there are calls for use of risk assessment to help solve such ecological policy and management problems commonly encountered in fisheries management. The basic concepts of ecological risk assessment may be simple, but the jargon and details are not. Risk assessment (and similar analytical tools) is a concept that has evoked strong reactions whenever it has been used. In spite of the difficulties of defining problems and setting management objectives for complex ecological policy questions, use of risk assessment to help solve ecological problems is widely supported. Ecological risk assessment will be most useful (and objective) in political deliberations when the policy debate revolves around largely technical concerns. To the extent that risk assessment forces policy debate and disagreement toward fundamental differences rather than superficial ones, it will be useful in decision making.     

中国灾害的军事救援及其机制研究

中国是一个灾害频繁的国家。灾害造成了巨大的直接、间接经济损失和人员伤亡，对社会经济发展产生了严重的影响。中国的具体国情和人民解放军的特殊性质，决定了军事救援历来在中国的灾害救援中具有不可替代的地位，发挥着突击队和生力军的作用。由于客观上存在着一些制约因素，使得军事救援的实施效率受到了一定程度的影响，未能得到最大限度的发挥。因此，必须尽快建立适应新时期军队执行抢险救灾任务需要的军事救援机制。     

洪水灾害评估体系研究

从系统论的观点出发，提出了洪水灾害系统的概念，并结合洪水灾害评估的特点，设计了洪水灾害评估体系的总体框架。     

新疆伽师6级强震群综述

本文对伽师成丛发生强震的机因，伽师地震的预报以及地震灾害损失与应力场状态等给出了结果。并就伽师地区防震减灾对策和重建问题提出了讨论及具体对策意见。     

人类的行为与地质灾害

全面科学地分析了人类的行为与地质灾害后，针对我国当前的实际情况，提出了几个值得深思的问题，试图提醒人们如何规范自己的行为，以达到保护环境，预防和减轻地质灾害之目的。     

自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。