洪涝灾害条件下疏散交通生成预测方法

为有助于有关部门更准确预测洪涝灾害受灾民众的疏散量,结合非集计数据和集计数据的优点,提出分区集计数据的概念,设计了受灾区域分区方法,并通过意向偏好(SP)调查法对我国居民在洪涝条件下疏散交通需求数据进行调查。在此基础上,引入BP神经网络建立基于分区集计数据的疏散交通生成预测模型。利用调查数据进行实证分析发现,所设计方法取得了较好的预测效果,鲁棒性较好,平均相对预测误差仅为1.8%,其预测效果明显优于现有的非集计和整集计模型。     

Experience in quantitative analysis of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka

Quantitative methods have been applied to the study of floristic structure and diversity in Samarskaya Luka. The results show that Samarskaya Luka is a floristically heterogeneous area in which six elementary floras can be distinguished. This area has been assessed as a floristically autonomous formation, and its floristic representativeness was estimated.     

防灾预案研究

本文提出了防御灾害预案的五要素和逻辑结构,进而讨论了防灾预案的优化准则、制定程序等问题。     

治污投资的政府最优政策博弈

外部性的存在及制造商治污投资动机不足要求政府对制造商的行为进行相应的规制，政府在制造商的治污投资行为中主要的作用是通过各种措施使得制造裔有动机地去自觉地进行有效的治污投资;政府的主要控制手段包括直接管制及借助市场激励，政府制定环境管理策略的关键因素是“惩罚的力度与激励的强度”。基于社会福利最大化的角度；从制造商的治污投资行为出发研究政府制定环境管理规制的策略，通过一个三阶段的博弈模型分析福利增进量、洽污成本与治污效果等三个因素对“惩罚力度与激励强度”的影响。     

水资源条件约束下西北农村地区生态经济发展对策

西北地区生态脆弱，社会经济发展相对落后。农业在全区经济中占有重要的地位，所以农村地区可持续发展对于实现西北地区可持续发展具有重要意义。通过分析西北地区水资源现状及特点和本区农村社会、经济发展现状，认为西北地区水资源严重缺乏，干旱化趋势将长期存在；农业结构不合理，乡镇工业污染严重、城镇化进程缓慢是制约本区农村地区可持续发展的主要因素。在此基础上，提出了在水资源严重缺乏条件下西北农村地区实现生态经济可持续发展的具体对策：积极调整农业结构，大力发展节水农业和推进农业产业化；加强小城镇社区生态环境基础设施建设，实施城镇化发展战略和乡镇企业可持续发展；建设生态型的小城镇，建立农村地区新型生态能源结构，加强小流域综合治理是改善农村生态环境和实现农村地区生态经济可持续发展的有效途径。     

2010年上海世博会与长江三角洲都市圈的联动发展

本文在分析世界博览会发展过程的基础上，阐述了2010年上海世博会对上海乃至长江三角洲都市圈联动发展的机遇和挑战，并提出了长江三角洲都市圈空间整合与联动发展的战略措施。     

Comparative Analysis of Ecophysiological Characteristics of Stephanodiscus hantzschii Grun. in the Periods of Its Bloom in Recreational Water Bodies

In the periods of summer and autumn bloom of the Stephanodiscus hantzschii Crun. in recreational water bodies, studies on the vertical distribution of chlorophyll a, its contents per unit biomass, efficiency in using photosynthetically active radiation (E_PhAR), and assimilative activity of microalgae were performed. The results confirmed the existence of two ecophysiological forms of St. hantzschii and provided evidence that both forms are typically autotrophic and can efficiently use low-intensity PhAR for photosynthesis.     

Biological Activity in a Heavily Organohalogen-Contaminated River Sediment (8 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope Sediments of the Spittelwasser creek are highly polluted with organic compounds and heavy metals due to the discharge of untreated waste waters from the industrial region of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany over the course of more than one century. However, relatively few data have been published about the chloroorganic contamination of the sediment. This paper reports on the content of different (chloro)organic compounds with special emphasis on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), and chlorobenzenes. Existing concepts for the remediation of Spittelwasser sediment include the investigation of natural attenuation processes, which largely depend on the presence of an intact microbial food web. In order to gain more insight in terms of biological activity, we analyzed the capacity of sediment microflora to degrade organic matter by measuring the activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes involved in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. Furthermore, the detection of physiologically active bacteria in the sediment, particularly of those known for their capability to reductively dehalogenate organochlorine compounds, illustrates the potential for intrinsic bioremediation processes. Methods PCDD/F and chlorobenzenes were analyzed by gas chromatography(GC)/mass spectrometry and GC/flame ionization detection, respectively. The activities of hydrolytic enzymes were determined from freshly sampled sediment layers using 4-methylumbelliferyl (MUF) or 7-amino-4-methylcoumarin-conjugated model compounds and kinetic fluorescence measurements. Physiologically active bacteria from different sediment layers were microscopically visualized by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Specific bacteria were identified by 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequencing. Results and Discussion The PCDD/F congener profile was dominated by dibenzofurans. In addition, the presence of specific tetra and pentachlorinated dibenzofurans supported the assumption that extensive magnesium production was one possible source for the high contamination. A range of other chloroorganic compounds, including several isomers of chlorobenzenes, hexachlorocyclohexane and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis (p-chloro-phenyl)ethane (DDT), was present in the sediment. Activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes showed a strong decrease in those sediment layers that were characterized by high contents of absorbable organic halogen (AOX), indicating disturbed organic matter decay. Interestingly, an abnormal increase of cellulolytic enzyme activities below the organochlorine-rich layers was observed, possibly caused by residual cellulose from discharges of sulfite pulping wastes. FISH revealed physiologically active bacteria in most sediment layers from the surface down to the depth of about 60 cm, including members of Desulfitobacterium (D.) and Sulfurospirillum. The presence of D. dehalogenans was confirmed by its partial 16S rRNA gene sequence. Conclusions Results of chemical sediment analyses demonstrated high loads of organochlorine compounds, particularly of PCDD/F. Several years after stopping the waste water discharge to Spittelwasser creek, this sediment remains a main source for pollution of the downstream river system by way of the ongoing mobilization of sediment during high floods. As indicated by our enzyme activity measurements, the decomposition potential for organic matter is low in organochlorine-rich sediment layers. In contrast, the comparably higher enzyme activities in less organochlorine-polluted sediment layers as well as the presence of physiologically active bacteria suggest a considerable potential for natural attenuation. Recommendations and Perspectives From our data we strongly recommend to explore the degradative capacity of sediment microorganisms and the limits for in situ activity towards specific sediment pollutants in more detail. This will give a sound basis for the integration of bioremediation approaches into general concepts to reduce the risk that permanently radiates from this highly contaminated sediment. Submission Editor: Dr. Henner Hollert (Henner.Hollert@urz.uniheidelberg.de)     

湘南地区杂柑天草高接换冠关键技术

天草杂柑的高接换冠的关键技术主要是：注意选择母树并适当修剪；合理采穗和保湿；科学嫁接；嫁接后精心管理．