由三个地震模式讨论1995年日本阪神大震的预报问题

本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了１９９５年日本阪神大震（Ｍ７．２）的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力（Ｃｏｒｒｉｏｌｉ）的效应讨论了主震３年后最强余震的预报。     

Estimation of far-field horizontal and vertical turbulent diffusion coefficients from the concentration field of a wastewater plume near the Akashi Strait

We carried out a field study of the plume discharged by a near-shore wastewater outfall near the Akashi Strait, Japan. Using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler and a tow-body CTD, we measured the near-surface salinity and temperature fields in the region throughout an M₂ tidal cycle. We filtered the data in T–S space to remove water masses other than the wastewater, and then used the adiabatic mixing assumption to calculate the concentration of wastewater in the far field of this plume. Averaging the T–S fields of repeated surveys over a time period during which the tidal regime did not change substantially, allowed comparison of the time-averaged plume with the analytical solution for a plume diffusing in both the horizontal and vertical dimensions. The resulting vertical turbulent diffusion coefficients agreed well with those resulting from Thorpe scales determined via a vertically-profiling CTD, as well as with the canonical value for open channel flow of D _z = 0.067hu _*. The corresponding horizontal turbulent diffusion coefficients, however, were two orders of magnitude larger than those typically observed in straight channels, and an order of magnitude larger than those observed in meandering rivers. This is likely a result of enhanced horizontal mixing due to barotropic eddies generated by the interaction of strong tidal flow with headlands and levees, as well as due to the time-varying nature of tidal flow, and baroclinic spreading of the buoyant wastewater plume.     

Behavior of a Small Pulsed River Plume in a Strong Tidal Cross-Flow in the Akashi Strait

We carried out a field study of a small river plume emptying into Osaka Bay near the Akashi Strait in western Japan, to understand the fate of its urban-runoff-laden waters. As the river is weak compared to tidal currents, we find that the behavior of the plume is strongly influenced by phasing between tidal stage and currents (a westward-traveling progressive tidal wave). When the tidal stage rises, sea water floods up the river, and concentrated river effluent cannot be seen in Osaka Bay. During most of the river’s ebb, a topographic eddy transports river effluent towards the energetic Akashi Strait, while strong vertical shear in the tidal flow mixes the effluent with seawater. However, there is a short interval of time during which the direction of tidal flow in the Strait changes direction and the magnitude of the current is weak. At this time, shear is weak enough to allow a stratified plume of concentrated river water to form, and this plume is driven offshore, and into Osaka Bay, by baroclinic circulation. A sewage outfall, which is located very close to the river mouth, is subjected to these same conditions and therefore exhibits similar behavior. Understanding the relation between tidal phase and plume behavior will be useful to Kobe City, as well as other cities in a similar environment, for minimizing the environmental effects of their wastewater and non-point-source runoff.     

阪神地震与日本地震保险的发展

以日本 1 995年 1月 1 7日阪神大地震为例 ,介绍了日本地震保险事业的发展历史和现状 ,希望为我国地震保险事业的发展提供一些有益的借鉴。     

阪神大震后的日本震灾防御——安徽省城市防震减灾代表团赴日考察见闻

通过赴日考察,介绍了阪神大地震后日本政府在地震立法、制订地震防灾计划、地震应急指挥、地震预报研究以及抗震设防等方面所做的工作,以期对我们有所借鉴。     

21世纪东京都的地震问题分析及其防震防灾对策思考

在广泛收集资料的基础上 ,对日本关东、阪神二次大地震作了概述 ,并将其灾情作了比较与分析。进而提出了日本首都的地震危险性问题 ,针对东京这样的政治、经济、文化、人口等高度集中的大都市的特点 ,提出几点防震减灾建议。并希望以上分析工作能对中国大城市的防震减灾工作有一点启示。