A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

梅梁湖的富营养化状况及治理对策讨论

监测结果表明，梅梁湖水体ＴＰ，ＴＮ含量分别为０．１ｍｇ／Ｌ和３．４ｍｇ／Ｌ藻类生物量达９－１３亿个细胞／Ｌ，富营养化相当严重，污染的主要原因，工农业，渔业，畜牧业和生活污水的直接排放，使水全营养盐含量较高，藻类大量繁殖，可采用“控源截汛”，“清除淤泥”，“调水搞活”及生物治理等综合性措施，对梅梁湖的富营养化进行了治理。     

环境承载力与环境扶贫

随着人类环境意识的觉醒与升华，引发了对自身生存环境的更深层次的思考。本文就环境承载力的内涵与外延以及它既会造成贫困又可解脱贫困的关键作用进行了研究和探讨。     

The adaptive significance of male polymorphism in the acarid mite Caloglyphus berlesei

Summary Two forms of males occur in the acarid mite, Caloglyphus berlesei. One of them uses its thickened third pair of legs to kill other males; the other, without modified legs, does not attack other males. Previous studies have shown that the form of the male is environmentally determined: fighter males develop only at low population densities and their development can be suppressed by substances emanating from dense colonies. In this study, the duration of development, longevity and virility of the two male morphs were measured. The only significant difference was that fighters had a shorter development time between the two last moults. In another experiment, two groups of colonies were maintained under the same conditions but had different numbers of individuals: small colonies contained 2 fighters and 2 non-fighters, whereas large colonies contained 30 males of each type. The relative reproductive success of both morphs was estimated from numbers of matings. In small colonies, the estimated reproductive success (ERS) was significantly higher for fighters than for non-fighters, mainly because in over 50% of these colonies a single fighter male managed to kill all the rival males and monopolize the females. The opposite was true in large colonies, in which non-fighters achieved significantly higher ERS, mainly because the fighters were killed in fights more often than the non-fighters. This implies that the ratio of costs to benefits obtained by adopting the fighter-male strategy increases with the number of rival males, which may explain conditional male development in C. berlesei.     

Discussing why population growth is still ignored or denied

Due to a number of factors outlined in this article, the issue of population growth is excluded from the sustainability discussion. In this article, we explore some of the ethical presumptions that underlie the issues linking population growth and sustainability. Critics argue that action to address population creates social and economic segregation, and portray overpopulation concerns as being “anti-poor,” “anti-developing country,” or even “antihuman.” Yet, de-linking demographic factors from sustainability concerns ignores significant global realities and trends, such as the ecological limits of the Earth, the welfare and long-term livelihood of the most vulnerable groups, future prospects of humanity, as well as the ecosystems that support society.     

小型城市污水排放量预测模型研究——以楚雄市为例

针对小城市污水排放量历史数据较少,城市发展变化较大的特点,以楚雄市为例,提出了基于污水排放来源以及生成机理的预测方法。根据历史人口增长趋势以及城镇化率进行城区人口综合预测,运用定额法根据不同行业用水特点预测城市用水量,结合城市污水排放特点对楚雄市近期以及远期城市污水排放量进行科学合理的预测,并对预测结果进行了分析,可为城市发展规划提供决策参考。     

人类自我科学管理是实现可持续发展的必然选择

现今人口规模的不断膨胀和物质生活水平的日益提高,对资源和环境造成的压力急剧增加。分析了世界现状和可持续发展面临的挑战之后,提出人类要实现可持续发展必须要进行自我科学管理,分别从人类自我定位、对待科技的态度、人口管理、人类消费管理4个方面进行讨论和阐述。人类首先需重新审视自己,进行自我定位;其次要正确对待科技;控制人口数量和转变不合理消费是目前人类自我管理的重要任务,对此提出一些实施对策。     

Establishment of facultative sexuals

The existence of sex is one of the major unsolved problems in biology. We use computer simulations to model conditions in which sex may first become established. We develop an individual-based population model and show that a hypothetical facultative sex gene can fix, provided that the initial cost is low. It is demonstrated that the equilibrium fitness in the population increases with increasing population size and decreasing mutation rate. The probability of the establishment of the sex gene is found not to be directly related to the fitness difference between the asexual and sexual populations. This change in fitness on changing the parameters of the model is investigated.     

千岛湖溶解氧的动态分布特征及其影响因素分析

基于2011~2012年1~12月千岛湖6个站点的溶解氧浓度实时监测数据,分析了千岛湖溶解氧的垂直分布以及时空分布特征,并探讨了影响水体溶解氧动态分布特征的影响因子.结果表明,溶解氧分布特征有明显的垂向差异以及季节差异.冬季,平均溶解氧值较高,除大坝前站点,其余各站点溶解氧无显著垂向差异;夏季,溶解氧垂向差异显著大于春秋两季.水深较深的小金山、三潭岛和大坝前站点其夏季溶解氧最大值出现在真光层,分别达到11.59、12.52和10.96 mg·L-1.千岛湖表层溶解氧最大值出现在春季,而最小值出现在秋季.相关性分析结果表明,溶解氧与水温、pH、叶绿素a浓度的相关性存在季节性差异.夏季,水温与溶解氧存在极其显著的线性相关,温度热力分层是影响溶解氧在夏季垂直分布的关键因素.春夏季,pH、叶绿素a浓度与溶解氧的相关系数较高,主要与浮游植物光合作用有关.     

春、夏季长江口及其邻近海域溶解N2O的分布和海-气交换通量

分别于2012年3月和7月对长江口及其邻近海域进行了调查,对水体中溶解氧化亚氮(N2O)的分布及海-气交换通量进行了研究.结果表明,春季长江口及其邻近海域表层海水中溶解N2O浓度范围为9.34~49.08 nmol·L-1,平均值为(13.27±6.40)nmol·L-1.夏季表层溶解N2O浓度范围为7.27~27.81 nmol·L-1、平均值为(10.62±5.03)nmol·L-1.两航次表、底层海水中溶解N2O浓度相差不大.长江口溶解N2O浓度由近岸向外海逐渐降低,受陆源输入影响显著.溶解N2O浓度高值出现在长江口最大浑浊带附近,这主要是由于水体中较高的硝化速率造成的.温度是影响N2O分布的另一个重要因素,对溶解N2O浓度有双重作用.春季和夏季表层海水中N2O饱和度范围分别为86.9%~351.3%和111.7%~396.0%,平均值分别为(111.5±41.4)%和(155.9±68.4)%,大部分站位处于过饱和状态.利用LM86、W92和RC01公式分别计算了长江口及其邻近海域N2O的海-气交换通量,春季分别为(3.2±10.9)、(5.5±19.3)和(12.2±52.3)μmol·(m2·d)-1,夏季分别为(7.3±12.4)、(12.7±20.4)和(20.4±35.9)μmol·(m2·d)-1,初步估算出长江口及其邻近海域的年平均释放量分别为0.6×10-2Tg·a-1(LM86)、1.1×10-2Tg·a-1(W92)、2.0×10-2Tg·a-1(RC01).长江口及其邻近海域虽然只占全球海洋总面积的0.02%,但其释放的N2O占全球海洋释放量的0.06%,表明长江口及其邻近海域是产生和释放N2O的活跃区域.