Climate readiness of recovery plans for threatened Australian species

The rapidly changing climate is posing growing threats for all species, but particularly for those already considered threatened. We reviewed 100 recovery plans for Australian terrestrial threatened species (50 fauna and 50 flora plans) written from 1997 to 2017. We recorded the number of plans that acknowledged climate change as a threat and of these how many proposed specific actions to ameliorate the threat. We classified these actions along a continuum from passive or incremental to active or interventionist. Overall, just under 60% of the sampled recovery plans listed climate change as a current or potential threat to the threatened taxa, and the likelihood of this acknowledgment increased over time. A far smaller proportion of the plans, however, identified specific actions associated with ameliorating climate risk (22%) and even fewer (9%) recommended any interventionist action in response to a climate-change-associated threat. Our results point to a disconnect between the knowledge generated on climate-change-related risk and potential adaptation strategies and the extent to which this knowledge has been incorporated into an important instrument of conservation action.     

Mainstreaming human and large carnivore coexistence through institutional collaboration

Achieving coexistence between large carnivores and humans in human-dominated landscapes (HDLs) is a key challenge for societies globally. This challenge cannot be adequately met with the current sectoral approaches to HDL governance and an academic community largely dominated by disciplinary sectors. Academia (universities and other research institutions and organizations) should take a more active role in embracing societal challenges around conservation of large carnivores in HDLs by facilitating cross-sectoral cooperation to mainstream coexistence of humans and large carnivores. Drawing on lessons from populated regions of Europe, Asia, and South America with substantial densities of large carnivores, we suggest academia should better embrace the principles and methods of sustainability sciences and create institutional spaces for the implementation of transdisciplinary curricula and projects; reflect on research approaches (i.e., disciplinary, interdisciplinary, or transdisciplinary) they apply and how their outcomes could aid leveraging institutional transformations for mainstreaming; and engage with various institutions and stakeholder groups to create novel institutional structures that can respond to multiple challenges of HDL management and human–large carnivore coexistence. Success in mainstreaming this coexistence in HDL will rest on the ability to think and act cooperatively. Such a conservation achievement, if realized, stands to have far-reaching benefits for people and biodiversity.     

Traditional agriculture in transition: examining the impacts of agricultural modernization on smallholder farming in Ghana under the new Green Revolution

Following the renewed effort at achieving a new green revolution for Africa, emphasis has been placed on modernizing smallholder agriculture through the deployment of improved inputs especially mechanized technologies. In Ghana, the government has in the last decade emphasized the provision of subsidized mechanized ploughing services to farmers alongside a rapidly growing private sector tractor service market. While mechanized technology adoption rates have increased rapidly, the deployment of these technologies has been without critical analysis of the impacts on production patterns and local agrarian systems. This paper examines the distributional impacts of agriculture mechanization on cropping patterns and farm sizes of smallholder farmers in northern Ghana using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques, and semi-structured interviews with smallholder farmers (n=60). Specifically, comparative analysis of the field sizes and cropping patterns of participant farmers prior to and after the adoption of mechanized technologies was conducted. In-depth interviews were used to contextualize the experiences of smallholder farmers toward understanding how mechanization may be impacting traditional agriculture. Our findings reveal a mechanization paradox in which farm sizes are expanding, while cropping patterns are shifting away from traditional staple crops (pearl millet and sorghum bicolor) to market-oriented crops (maize, rice and groundnuts). This transition we argue, has adverse implications on the cultural dimension of food security, the organization of social life, and climate change adaptation. We recommend a retooling of the current agricultural policy focus to ensure context sensitivity for a more robust battle against food insecurity.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

长江三峡柑桔的冻害和热害（二）

本文从柑桔冻害和热害的危害因子和指标等级划分的研究和选取入手,着重探讨了长江三峡地区(湖北境内)两害显著的时空变化特征、差异与关联性及对柑桔生产的影响;揭示了80年代以来冬暖春热的重大气候变化是使两害向“两极分化”的根本原因;讨论了三峡水利工程对两害时空格局的可能调整及减灾原理;最后提出了可能的对策。     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Exploration of Science Parks

1 DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENCE PARKSThe concept of science park originated in the US. Manyterms are used to describe science parks, such as researchpark, technology park, science centre, research centre,innovation centre, and with various combination of these(MacDonald, 1987). The first science park in the worldis Stanford Industrial Park established in 1951. In 1955,only seven companies were located in the park. By 1980there were ninety companies including Hewlett PackardCompany, whic…     

科技创新投入对环境全要素生产率的影响机制

使用2004~2015年的中国280个地级市的面板数据,对科技创新投入与环境全要素生产率间的非线性关系、内部影响机理和空间异质性进行分析,结果显示：科技创新投入与环境全要素生产率之间呈现倒N型关系,两个拐点的位置分别为7.722（2257.47万元）和9.610（14913.17万元）;在外部资本进入、污染治理、市场规模效应3种影响路径中,科技创新投入影响下的外部资本进入对环境全要素生产率依然存在污染避难所的负向效应,科技创新投入与外部资本间效应为0.1363,外部资本与环境全要素生产率间效应为-0.0065;科技创新投入能够增强企业的污染治理技术并提高环境全要素生产率,三者间前后效应分别为-0.0277和-0.0311;科技创新的投入与高效益增强了市场规模效应,有效促进生产结构的转型进而提高环境全要素生产率,三者间前后效应为0.0186和0.4346.空间异质性中,外部资本进入与溢出效应带来的污染避难所负效应在中部地区显著,在西部和东北部地区不显著,而污染天堂正效应在东部地区存在但不显著;污染创新治理投入的技术正溢出效应在东部和西部地区效应显著,在中部和东北部不显著;科技创新投入与市场需求规模效应在空间区域无差异且显著为正.建议依据科技创新投入的不同影响路径来实施空间差异化策略.     

近14年西北地区甲醛柱浓度的时空变化研究

基于臭氧监测仪（OMI）卫星反演数据,对2005~2018年西北4省区域大气甲醛柱浓度数据进行提取及分析,探讨其时空变化特征及影响因素.结果表明：在时间变化上,14a甲醛柱浓度整体呈先上升后下降的波动变化趋势,夏秋季显著高于冬春季,且冬季均值略高于春季.在空间分布上,甲醛柱浓度自西向东、自北向南逐渐升高,高值区集中于陕西和甘肃东南部及青海西南部;低值区集中于宁夏、青海和甘肃的西北部;稳定性呈现出东部分散、西部集聚、差异显著的分布格局.影响甲醛柱浓度变化的因素包括自然和人为因素,自然因素中,甲醛柱浓度受地形影响显著,与风向、气温均呈现显著正相关;人为因素中,甲醛柱浓度与人口密度、地区生产总值、工业废气排放量及建筑房屋竣工面积均表现出正相关关系,与工业废气排放量的相关度最高.大气中甲醛分子与气溶胶粒子二者间呈显著正相关关系,这进一步说明甲醛浓度受到了诸多因素的综合影响,但气溶胶粒子、气温及工业废气的排放是主导因素.     

祁连山七一冰川物质平衡的时空变化特征

基于2011-2016年七一冰川的野外观测资料,结合气象站数据及1975-2015年的遥感影像,分析了冰川末端变化、物质平衡时空变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感性,结果表明：1975年以来,七一冰川末端持续退缩235 m,平均退缩速率为5.9 m/a,冰川面积减少0.13 km²（4.5%）。2011-2016年,七一冰川的平均物质平衡为-476 mm w.e.,平均ELA为4941 m a.s.l.,物质平衡梯度为2.9 mm/m。从季节变化看,受风吹雪和冰面升华影响,11月至次年3月冰川呈负平衡;4月和9月物质平衡受降水控制,随海拔变化呈现降水效应;强消融期（6-8月）物质平衡随海拔升高线性增加;消融期末由9月初延后至9月底。敏感性分析结果表明,物质平衡对气温变化的敏感性为-178.7 mm w.e. °C^-1 a^-1,对降水变化的敏感性为+2.93 mm w.e. mm^-1 a^-1。即61 mm的降水增加才能弥补暖季气温升高1 °C引起的冰川净物质损失。